While it’s fair to say that the UFC Vegas events aren’t always the most exciting, it’s almost certain that sparks will fly when Curtis Blaydes and Sergei Pavlovich face each other in Vegas in just a few weeks time. Pavlovic is on a pretty impressive 5-fight win streak following his loss to Overeem in 2018, featuring Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis. Curtis Blaydes on the other hand hasn’t quite had the same luck. He lost to Derrick Lewis in 2021 and has since had an interesting streak… A decision win over Rozenstruik, a TKO win over Chris Daukaus, and then a win over Tom Aspinall in London in 2022.
But the two heavyweight behemoths aren’t the only fight we’re looking forward to as the card features some very exciting prospects. First there’s Chinese fan favorite Song Yadong who takes on Ricky Simon. Simon is currently on a 5-fight win streak and will be hoping that a win over Yadong will give him a boost up the Bantamweight rankings. Then there’s the lightweight fight between California native Bobby Green who takes on Jared Gordon. Both of these fighters have had a fairly mixed bag when it comes to their records, but both fighters are coming off the back of a loss and with a point to prove, this one will surely be intense.
Starting at the top, for the main event, we have Sergei Pavlovic taking on Curtis Blaydes. Pavlovic is currently on a 5-fight win streak with first-round KO/TKO wins over Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Maurice Greene and Marcelo Golm. Yes, all first round KO/TKOs… Curtis Blaydes on the other hand is on a 3-fight win streak. In February 2021, he suffered a KO/TKO loss to Derrick Lewis, but has since made a comeback. Blaydes is famous for his power but somehow, 2 of his last 4 wins were by decision. This one will be interesting but honestly, you can’t look past Sergei Pavlovic right now. We can honestly see him stamping his name on a title shot very soon.
Now let’s take a look at the fight between California native Bobby Green and Jared Gordon. This one could be interesting, because of the differing styles. Gordon is known for his striking, but he has had a patchy time recently. In his last 3 fights he has gone 1-2, with losses over UFC new blood Paddy Pimblett and Grant Dawson. His only win is a unanimous decision win over Leonardo Santos. Bobby Green has been on a 2-fight losing streak. Losing two fights in a row by KO/TKO, one of those fights was against Islam Makhachev who followed up his win over Green with a title shot against Charles Oliveira. It’s going to be interesting to see which of these fighters bounces back from their defeats to stamp their name in the win column.
It’s that time again where we take a look at the sportsbooks to see how the experts are calling this card. Again, we will just be taking a look at the fights on the main card as usually at this point, there are only odds available on those fights. As we inch closer to the time, you’ll have a wider array of odds for the prelims as well as more markets on the individual fights, such as method of win and specific rounds, etc. For reference, all returns stated beyond this are based on a stake of $5.
Unfortunately, sports betting apps and sites aren’t available in all states like CA yet, it seems like California could have legal sports betting in the future. Anyways, we’ve looked at the odds for this card; Starting from the bottom and working our way up, we have Jeremiah Wells vs. Matthew Semelsberger, Wells is -150 returning $8.33, Semelsberger is +125 returning $11.25. Then we have Iasmin Lucindo vs. Brogan Walker, Lucindo his heavy favorite here at -275 returning $6.81 with Walker coming in at +225 returning $16.25.
Then there’s California native Bobby Green who is the favorite against Jared Gordon, Bobby currently sits at -275 returning $6.81 with Gordon at +225 returning $16.25. Next up is Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva, Tavares is the favorite here returning $8.12 from his -160 odds, Silva comes in at +130 returning $11.50. The co-main event is Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon, Yadong comes in as a +100 underdog returning $10 with Simon at -125 returning $9.00. Finally, the main event, somewhat expectedly, Sergei Pavlovic is the underdog for this one at +150, returning $12.50, while Curtis Blaydes and his incredible power are at -175 returning $7.85.
So now we’ve talked about a few of the fights and we’ve taken a look at what the experts think, here are our predictions for the main card…
(KO Win) Sergei Pavlovic vs. Curtis Blaydes
(Decision Win) Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon
Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva (KO Win)
(Decision Win) Bobby Green vs. Jared Gordon
(KO Win) Iasmin Lucindo vs. Brogan Walker
(Submission Win) Jeremiah Wells vs. Matthew Semelsberger
So, what do you guys think about our predictions? For the record, a 6 fold accumulator on those wins is currently +3464, returning $178.20 from a stake of $5. Depending on if you bet on the method of the win also, that would likely go up. However, we haven’t just picked the favorite for every fight here. It’s worth remembering that things aren’t that easy to predict, especially in the UFC, otherwise we’d all be making millions from this stuff.
But if you just look at the records and the news leading into fight week, you’ll be able to see who could possibly come out on top…
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