UFC 318: Main Card Predictions
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Buckle up for UFC 318, lighting up the Smoothie King Center in the soulful city of New Orleans, Louisiana! While this main card might fly under the radar, it’s primed to deliver breakout performances, capped off by the highly anticipated BMF title showdown between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.
We unpack every main card fight, dishing out predictions and sharp insights on who’ll rise to the occasion on fight night:
BMF Championship
Max Holloway (c) vs. Dustin Poirier
Evan: This is an extremely bittersweet matchup for me personally. Both Holloway and Poirier are probably two of my all-time favorite fighters. But in my eyes, this trilogy meeting simply comes down to who’s durability holds up longer and who can land the most damaging shots overall.
In their instant classic rematch back at UFC 236 in 2019, both landed on each other at a pretty similar rate. Per UFC Stats, Holloway just edged out Poirier 181-178 in significant strikes during that fight. However, Dustin’s punches were clearly more impactful and demonstratively hurt Max far more frequently. He literally was physically moving Max every time he hit him or putting him off balance.
It also appeared that the Hawaiian fan favorite wasn’t quite ready for the physicality of 155 pounds. That’s not really the case anymore though. Holloway has matured and filled into his frame, becoming a legitimate lightweight. I also believe his skills and game have drastically improved since their last outing. So I’m going to pick Max in this fight. I believe his jab, combination punching, and footwork will be an issue for Dustin to deal with. I also see him actually hurting Poirier this time around, given his improved power now up a weight class.
Official Prediction: Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: With both fighters bringing their unique styles, this matchup is set to be an exciting clash of striker vs. striker. I agree with Evan that there won’t be a noticeable power difference this time around. Holloway has tested the waters at lightweight since their first meeting and will be every bit of a 155-pound fighter.
The Louisiana native however, remains as dangerous as ever, even in his final dance. I just don’t think Poirier can handle the sheer volume that Holloway will bring as the fight progresses. Expect a very competitive bout and a potential fight of the year contender.
Official Prediction: Max Holloway via Split Decision
Featherweight Bout
Dan Ige (12) vs. Patricio Pitbull
Lee: This one has the chance to be a banger of a fight. For that to happen we need Pitbull to revert to the fighter that was a former two-division champion in Bellator. In his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez, he looked flat, and to be honest, he looked old. With 44 pro fights under his belt, father time may be creeping up on him.
Ige called for this fight after his TKO win over Sean Woodson. He is looking to climb into the top 10 with a win. Pitbull is looking to join the rankings with a win and show UFC fans exactly who he is.
Official Prediction: Patricio Pitbull via Split Decision
Evan: I agree with Lee here that this should be one of the better fights on the card. You’ve got two aging veterans who are both trying to stay relevant as title contenders in a loaded featherweight division. I honestly don’t think there’s much separating them in terms of their skillset. Neither Ige or Pitbull has a distinctive advantage over one another in that way.
I expect this to predominantly be a pocket boxing match and both guys to land significant shots. I just feel Ige probably has more pop and juice left of the two, even if Patricio’s striking is a bit crisper. It’s a coin flip matchup no matter how you slice it.
Official Prediction: Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision
Welterweight Bout
Kevin Holland (14) vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Marcos: Similar to the main event, you can definitely expect a striking battle here. Honestly, Kevin Holland’s length and speed give him a significant advantage, making this an easy choice for me. For Rodriguez to have a shot, he needs to close the distance and deliver effective combinations.
I’m quite confident in Rodriguez’s durability, so I believe we’ll see the judges’ scorecards rather than a knockout from the “Trail Blazer.” However, it will still be a challenging day at the office for Daniel Rodriguez. Holland has the potential to pick him apart from a distance, leading to a unanimous victory. Overall, it’s set to be a high-energy welterweight showdown between two fan favorites that everyone will enjoy.
Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision
Lee: Kevin Holland is set for his fourth fight of 2025 as he takes on Daniel Rodriguez in a matchup that promises fireworks. Both fighters are known for chasing the finish. Rodriguez is coming off a third-round knockout win over Santiago Ponzinibbio, while Holland submitted Vicente Luque in the second round.
Rodriguez will look to use his striking and forward pressure to counter Holland’s unorthodox style and relentless pace. Originally scheduled for UFC 279 in 2022, nearly three years later, both men are riding momentum and ready to finally settle the score. It’s a tough fight to call, but I’m going against my heart on this one.
Official Prediction: Daniel Rodiguez via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Middleweight Bout
Paulo Costa (13) vs. Roman Kopylov (14)
Marcos: Not to sound like a broken record… But we have yet another matchup here that will be highly predicated on the striking. Both fighters are looking to leverage their power, with a combined total of 23 professional knockouts. So, this isn’t the time for a bathroom or snack break.
Kopylov’s technical skills could be the deciding factor here. While both fighters hit hard, Roman Kopylov is likely to deliver sharper combinations within a more strategic approach. The closeness of the fight will depend on which version of Paulo Costa shows up. If a motivated Costa can get in close and deliver some solid body shots, he could definitely take this one. I think Costa’s durability will carry him to the end, but I don’t see him coming out with the win.
Official Prediction: Roman Kopylov via Split Decision
Lee: Paulo Costa was once seen as a potential future champion, but he has struggled against top-tier competition. He now presents a significant step up for Roman Kopylov, who has won five of his last six fights by knockout. This matchup favors Kopylov stylistically, as Costa is not known for his ground game.
While Costa possesses fight-ending power, he needs to close the distance to land his heavy shots. Kopylov will need to establish his jab early, use it to set up his combinations, and prove he’s the superior striker. It’s worth noting that Costa has only been finished once in his UFC career.
Official Prediction: Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision
Lightweight Bout
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber
Marcos: Zellhuber’s output, reach, and youth give him a strong advantage in this three-round fight. I share Evan’s concerns about Zellhuber’s struggle to avoid significant strikes, especially against someone as powerful and aggressive as Michael Johnson. Even at 39, Johnson’s boxing skills and counter strikes make him a dangerous opponent. His veteran experience will also play a crucial role, particularly in the early rounds.
However, I believe Daniel Zellhuber will utilize high-volume combinations and kicks to overcome the aging veteran over the course of 15 minutes. If it were 2016, I would have chosen Michael Johnson, but unfortunately, Father Time is undefeated.
Official Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This fight is interesting because on paper, Zellhuber has most of the advantages. He’s longer, bigger, younger, and is more versatile overall. However, Johnson can still crack and is on a nice little resurgence currently going 3-1 in his last four Octagon appearances. According to UFC Stats, Daniel absorbs 6.02 significant strikes per minute. He frankly just gets hit a ton which could be a recipe for disaster against someone with Michael’s power.
With that being said, Johnson is nearing 40 and has 19 career losses. The combination of his age and susceptibility to get finished make him extremely vulnerable. I think Zellhuber’s potent firepower on the feet and submission skills will eventually sink the aging lightweight slugger. Expect an entertaining scrap though regardless of the outcome.
Official Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber via 2nd-Round TKO or Submission
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