PFL Madrid: Main Card Predictions
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The Professional Fighters League heads to Spain for a pivotal night as PFL Madrid brings title implications, ranked matchups, and regional star power to one of MMA’s fastest-growing markets.
With Spanish fans rallying behind the country’s surging combat sports scene, fueled in part by champions like Ilia Topuria, the promotion looks to capitalize on the momentum with a card that blends championship stakes with meaningful divisional clashes.
In the main event, newly crowned middleweight champion Costello van Steenis defends his title against tournament winner Fabian Edwards in a rematch years in the making. Elsewhere on the card, former champion AJ McKee Jr. meets dangerous contender Adam Borics in what could determine the next featherweight title challenger. The event also showcases Spain’s growing presence in combat sports.
With championship stakes and the energy of a booming European MMA market, PFL Madrid has the ingredients for a memorable night. Here’s our main card predictions:
PFL Middleweight Championship
Costello van Steenis (c) vs. Fabian Edwards (2)
Joey: Costello van Steenis shocked the MMA world when he dethroned the undefeated Johnny Eblen to become the PFL Middleweight Champion. I’m really digging PFL’s new format. But, before the division can benefit from regular fights outside the tournament structure, he has to face last year’s tournament winner.
Fabian Edwards captured the tournament in emphatic fashion, scoring a knockout that mirrored Leon Edwards’ infamous KO of Kamaru Usman. While I don’t know a ton about van Steenis, I do know he’s gritty and already holds a win over Fabian.
Edwards’ last performance was impressive. I’m not convinced he has evolved enough since their first fight though. I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled it off, but I’m going with the champion in this one.
Official Prediction: Costello van Steenis via 3rd-Round Submission
Evan: I really like this main event offering from the PFL. Unlike the UFC, I appreciate that they’re taking advantage of having a Spanish champion here, and capitalizing on Spain becoming one of the hottest new markets in the sport currently.
To the matchup itself though, van Steenis is coming off one of the best come-from-behind, Hail Mary wins we’ve seen in recent memory. He choked out Eblen out cold with just ten seconds left in their bout last July. The doggedness, grit, and guts he showed in that victory was special.
Meanwhile, after suffering two dominant losses to Eblen himself, Edwards went on a nice three fight winning streak to come out on top of last year’s PFL middleweight tournament. The first meeting between these two at Bellator: Milan 2 in September 2020 was a bit of a dud honestly. I’m sort of worried we might see a repeat of that in this rematch.
Costello is a really good striker that possesses a powerful kicking arsenal, a potent clinch game, and underrated submission skills. His low kicks and jab are the foundation of what he does. Whereas Fabian is more of a rangy counter puncher, who utilizes a lot of feints, and lead hand jousting to set up his striking. Plus, he’s got nasty elbows off of clinch breaks.
I genuinely don’t have a strong feeling here because both guys are so evenly matched in my eyes. Which could lead to them muting each other’s offense and produce another dull fight. With that being said, I’m going to side with van Steenis. I think he will land the more damaging shots on the feet, slightly edge out the exchanges, and out grapple Edwards. But, this one is as close as it gets.
Official Prediction: Costello van Steenis via Unanimous Decision
Featherweight Bout
AJ McKee (2) vs. Adam Borics (4)
Joey: This is such a great matchup and one I’m genuinely excited for. Both AJ McKee and Adam Borics are coming off bounce-back wins. So, it’s a perfect fight based on the new rankings. It could easily serve as a title eliminator.
Both fighters are well rounded on the ground. Because of that, it’ll likely comes down to how the fight plays out on the feet. You can never count McKee out. He has surprised people in high profile fights before and often rises to the moment.
For that reason, I’m going with McKee. The division needs a flashy personality at the top more than it realizes. AJ brings that, along with elite talent.
Official Prediction: AJ McKee via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This is without question the best fight on the card. Whether from a technical or pure entertainment value perspective, I don’t see how this one doesn’t deliver. Borics is probably the more sound striker here of the two. I definitely could see him implementing a similar game plan to what Paul Hughes utilized in his win over McKee. Where he focuses on keeping AJ in the pocket or boxing range, stays away from his guard, and nullifies the grappling scrambles.
However, I just feel McKee is the more talented fighter overall. The variety of offense he has at his disposal is going to be tough for Borics to handle. I believe AJ will frustrate Adam with his length, keep him at distance with his kicks, score takedowns when needed, and force the Hungarian contender into those scrambles he must avoid.
The former Bellator champ might end up finding an opening for a finish, especially a submission. But I think Borics will be game enough to last all 15 minutes with McKee, even in a losing effort.
Official Prediction: AJ McKee via Unanimous Decision
Welterweight Bout
Franco Tenaglia vs. Yassin Najid
Joey: Franco Tenaglia may only be 5-2, but he is the former BKFC Lightweight Champion and never actually lost the belt. The promotion stripped him due to visa issues. It was a shame because he had potential to become a star for them and for the Spanish market they were trying to tap into.
Now PFL seems to be doing the same, which is a smart move. Spain’s combat sports scene is growing fast, especially with Ilia Topuria’s rise and his promotion WOW putting on banger shows.
Tenaglia is a beast and this matchup feels designed for him to have a big moment. I think we see a knockout. Yassin Najid is 40 years old, 9-5, and entered the PFL coming off a loss. I personally think he has no business being on the roster.
Official Prediction: Franco Tenaglia via 1st-Round KO/TKO
Evan: I agree with Joey wholeheartedly. I legitimately think Yassin Najid is arguably the worst talent currently on the PFL roster. He has one promotional appearance, where Daniele Miceli, a journeyman Italian fighter, put him out cold with a Von Flue choke in 27 seconds.
The only thing that gives me any sort of hesitation here is most of Tenaglia’s combat sports experience has come in bare knuckle fights. So maybe there’s a chance Najid catches him with a submission. Ultimately though, I think Franco bulldozes the Frenchman early.
Official Prediction: Franco Tenaglia via 1st-Round KO or Submission
Heavyweight Bout
Linton Vassell (4) vs. José Augusto
Joey: If you thought UFC’s heavyweight division is on life support, PFL’s may be even worse. So if I’m being honest, this matchup doesn’t intrigue me much, especially with José Augusto stepping in on short notice.
Augusto comes into this fight off a loss at Super RIZIN 4. But, he’s built a solid résumé against some tough opponents. Despite being older, Linton Vassell is still absolutely shredded. This last-minute matchup could give him a chance to get back in the win column. Still, this one feels like a toss-up to me so I’ll flip a coin.
Official Prediction: Linton Vassell via Split Decision
Evan: Joey makes a great point that is hard to argue with. The PFL’s heavyweight division is absolutely horrendous and lacks any sizzle whatsoever. Which was exacerbated even more with the recent departure of Francis Ngannou. Outside of champion, Vadim Nemkov, and Iranian contender, Pouya Rahmani, there’s nobody to really get excited about on their current roster.
Augusto’s claim to fame is being known as the last opponent to be KO’d by the late great, Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Besides that he’s been a .500 fighter in Bellator and a fairly mediocre talent. If he’s able to sprawl and brawl, he can probably make Vassell gas out, which could lead to a finish for him. On the flip side, if Linton scores takedowns consistently, he should be able to beat José with his physicality and control. I’m not all that confident in either outcome though.
Official Prediction: Linton Vassell via 2nd-Round TKO or Submission
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