UFC Freedom 250: Full Card Predictions

UFC Freedom 250 has all the ingredients of a historic pay-per-view. Championship fights, superstar names, rising contenders, and several matchups that could have major implications across multiple divisions.

From Ilia Topuria looking to unify the lightweight title against Justin Gaethje to Alex Pereira chasing history as a potential three-division champion, the stakes couldn’t be much higher.

Before the action unfolds on June 14th, we break down every key fight on the card. Check out our predictions for one of the biggest events of the year:

Lightweight Championship

Ilia Topuria (c) vs. Justin Gaethje (ic)

Lee: I think we’ll see a different version of Ilia Topuria in this fight. While Topuria has knocked out his last three opponents, engaging in a prolonged striking battle with Justin Gaethje isn’t the smartest path to victory.

Gaethje’s power and devastating leg kicks present real threats. So, I expect Topuria to lean more on his wrestling and force Gaethje to work off his back. Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov both submitted Gaethje in title fights. So, I expect Topuria to attack the same vulnerability rather than give Gaethje extended opportunities to land on the feet.

Official Prediction: Ilia Topuria via 3rd-Round Submission

Evan: Ya I just don’t really agree with the sentiment that Gaethje’s striking is something that’s going to alter Topuria’s game at all. If anything, Justin is the one who’s going to pay for willingly standing and trading with Ilia.

With all due respect Gaethje, this is simply a lamb being led to slaughter. While his power on the feet is not a threat to be taken lightly, the damage he’s taken throughout his illustrious career has piled up significantly. Even in his last outing at UFC 324 he got hurt multiple times. And Paddy Pimblett is light years behind Topuria as a striker.

Given all those factors, I don’t see this going well for Justin. He’s going to struggle immensely with Ilia’s combinations, angles, and nuclear power, eventually leading to his chin getting sent into orbit. If he decides to try to grapple with Topuria, he’s also going to get severely outclassed and probably strangled at some point.

It’s essentially a pick your poison type matchup for Gaethje.

Official Prediction: Ilia Topuria via 1st or 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Interim Heavyweight Championship

Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane (#1)

Lee: Alex Pereira is taking the size jump seriously and has prepared his body for the bigger bodies at heavyweight. The move to heavyweight shouldn’t diminish Pereira’s power, and his methodical style has never relied on speed.

Gane will be the more athletic fighter in the Octagon. I look for him to use his footwork and angles to keep Pereira from moving forward with his constant pressure. Before the eye poke, Gane dominated Tom Aspinall, whom many considered the best heavyweight at the time.

If Pereira can’t land I see Gane breaking him down with volume and precise striking.

Official Prediction: Ciryl Gane via 3rd-Round KO/TKO

Evan: There’s probably not another fight on this card that I’m more intrigued by than this one. I’ve honestly had a very hard time trying to decipher who has the stylistic advantages between Gane and Pereira.

The amount of different scenarios for how this could end up going is really interesting. I actually agree with Lee. I think many people are underselling Ciryl’s chances and what kind of threat he poses to the former two-division champion.

I’m very curious to see how Poatan handles the Frenchman’s athleticism, speed, elusiveness, and especially his footwork. How he’s able to adapt to that and what choices he makes to counter those attacks, is pivotal in deciding the outcome of this scrap.

On the flip side, seeing how Gane will deal with Pereira’s calf kicks and kicking arsenal in general, as well as the Brazilian’s touch of death power specifically in his left hook, is equally as compelling. Does he choose to try to grapple and clinch the Brazilian star too, is additionally another layer to consider.

These two just clash like water and oil. So, it makes it difficult to know who will end up having the upper hand. This could turn into a high speed striking chess match. Whether that’s Poatan adding another highlight reel KO to his record, or Gane really flustering him with his slick striking.

Ultimately I’m not going to doubt Pereira and side with him here. But I’m fascinated to see how this winds up going.

Official Prediction: Alex Pereira via 3rd or 4th-Round KO/TKO

Bantamweight Bout

Sean O’Malley (3) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (6)

Lee: When Sean O’Malley was matched up with Aiemann Zahabi, it initially felt like a favorable fight to push the former champion back into title contention. However, Zahabi’s seven-fight win streak suggests this could be a tougher test than many expect.

O’Malley’s power, counter-striking, and jab remain elite weapons, but Zahabi has the grappling, defense, and discipline to make things uncomfortable. If he can control the pace and mix in his wrestling, he has a legitimate path to an upset.

Still, I expect O’Malley’s striking advantage and ability to land the bigger shots to be the difference.

Official Prediction: Sean O’Malley via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Evan: This is definitely one of my least favorite fights on the card. I’m not sure why the promotion chose to pass on a potential O’Malley-Cory Sandhagen matchup for this. But, here we are.

I’ve got respect for Zahabi and the run he’s currently on. He has definitely earned an opportunity like this. However, I’m still just not all that impressed with Aiemann’s skills overall. Plus the names he beat on his win streak have been mostly aging contenders like Marlon Vera, Jose Aldo, and Pedro Munhoz.

So I think his rise up the bantamweight rankings has been largely fool’s gold to put it bluntly. I believe O’Malley’s length, speed, feints, power, footwork, and overall striking game is much more dynamic than Zahabi’s. Maybe Aiemann can stall him out against the cage in the clinch.

All in all, this should be a showcase fight for Sean to put himself in position for another title shot.

Official Prediction: Sean O’Malley via Unanimous Decision

Heavyweight Bout

Josh Hokit (5) vs. Derrick Lewis (9)

Lee: In what could be the most explosive fight of the night, hot-shot Josh Hokit takes on Derrick Lewis. Hokit surged to No. 5 in the division after his win over Curtis Blaydes and brings an elite grappling game to the table.

Lewis remains one of the hardest hitters in MMA, capable of ending any fight with a single punch. But, his conditioning and ground game have long been question marks. If Hokit can extend the fight into the later rounds, his wrestling, pace, and technical advantages should begin to take over.

Official Prediction: Josh Hokit via 1st-Round Submission

Evan: Whether you love or hate him, it’s undeniable that Josh Hokit has injected some much needed life into the anemic heavyweight division. While his antics might be extremely cringey, grating, and irritating, they clearly have created the reaction he wants.

This seems to be a showcase fight for him, to get another established name in Lewis onto his résumé and continue to build towards an eventual title shot.

As long as Josh doesn’t fight like a maniac with reckless abandon as he did against Curtis Blaydes in his last outing, he should win with relative ease. Even if he decides to take that route, he still probably has a good chance to be victorious here. But Derrick’s power is still something he needs to be mindful of. Even if the 41-year old is now a diminished version of himself.

Ultimately though, I think Hokit’s athleticism, speed, wrestling, and pace are going to overwhelm Lewis.

Official Prediction: Josh Hokit via 1st or 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Lightweight Bout

Mauricio Ruffy (9) vs. Michael Chandler (13)

Lee: Michael Chandler enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak, but he remains one of the most dangerous first-round fighters in the division. Mauricio Ruffy will need to weather Chandler’s early pressure and power, while also being mindful of the veteran’s wrestling.

If Chandler can’t find success early, the momentum could quickly shift. As the fight progresses, Ruffy’s dynamic striking, speed, and well-rounded skill set should allow him to take control and separate himself from the former title challenger.

Official Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy via 2nd-Round Submission

Evan: I don’t think Chandler is fighting to stay on the roster here at all, despite his losing streak. He’s a company man, for better or worse, and delivers exciting fights consistently.

Plus, the UFC has kept lesser names on their roster like Cody Brundage, Priscilla Cachoeira, Tai Tuivasa, etc…who have all gone on extensive losing streaks. So I highly doubt the lightweight veteran is in much danger himself.

To the fight itself though, as Lee pointed out Michael’s wrestling could really be a huge factor in this one. If he decides to actually use it for once, his chances to upset the Brazilian upstart greatly increase.

With that being said, I don’t really trust Chandler to utilize his better judgement here. Plus, as shredded as he is, he does tend to gas pretty hard in fights. So combining those things with the fact he’s facing a dynamic sniper with devastating KO power and fantastic timing in Ruffy, doesn’t bode well for Chandler. 

Official Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Middleweight Bout 

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus

Lee: This matchup features two accomplished grapplers in Bo Nickal and Kyle Daukaus. Daukaus brings a well-rounded game with strong takedowns and the more polished striking of the two. Nickal’s elite wrestling and athleticism have fueled his rapid rise.

In many grappler-versus-grappler matchups, the edge goes to the better striker. But Nickal’s upside and experience against high-level competition make him the safer pick heading into this clash.

Official Prediction: Bo Nickal via Unanimous Decision

Evan: This is hands down the worst matchup on the card. Not because it’s a bad fight per se, overall it’s a very solid scrap. However, it being on an event of this magnitude feels pretty odd and forced. This easily could’ve been featured on an Apex event and nobody would’ve batted an eye.

But between the promotion’s insistence on pushing Nickal and his individual glazing of Trump’s MAGA movement, it makes sense why they wanted to spotlight him here.

I feel Daukaus has the more versatile skill set of the two, and believe he’s a live dog as well. I also think he’s actually the more “battle tested” fighter too. So, I won’t be shocked in the slightest if he ends up winning here.

I’m going to pick Bo though, even though I find him to be extremely overhyped. Mainly because I believe he’s the more natural talent of the pair. I can see him out-grappling or out-striking Kyle pretty easily. He definitely shouldn’t take the challenge the veteran will offer him lightly though. 

Official Prediction: Bo Nickal via Unanimous Decision

Featherweight Bout

Diego Lopes (2) vs. Steve Garcia (9)

Lee: This featherweight matchup pits two dangerous finishers against one another. Steve Garcia carries a staggering knockout rate and has secured four first-round finishes in his last five victories. Diego Lopes remains one of the division’s most versatile threats with elite submission skills and proven finishing ability.

Garcia has yet to break into the mainstream spotlight. But, a win over a top contender like Lopes, would be the biggest victory of his career. It could move him within striking distance of the featherweight top 10.

Official Prediction: Steve Garcia via Split Decision

Evan: If this fight ends up being boring, I will genuinely be shocked. There’s an argument to be made that this should and will be the front runner for FOTN. Garcia’s an interesting stylistic matchup for Lopes because he can match the former title challenger’s offensive output on the feet. So the exchanges in this one could turn into a hellacious back and forth pocket slugfest. 

The biggest question I have is will Lopes utilize his grappling advantages at all. And if he does, can Steve nullify that in any meaningful way. Regardless, I expect this to be a barn burner and will give the slightest of edge to Diego. 

Official Prediction: Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision

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