Full UFC Vegas 120 Betting Guide: Can Gamrot Turnback Salkilld?
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UFC Vegas 120 marks the return to the UFC Apex after being away for over a month.
The return features high action fights, headlined by the up and coming Quillan Salkilld, as he’ll look to announce himself as a legitimate contender if he can get past the veteran Mateusz Gamrot.
Here’s a fight-by-fight breakdown, complete with favorite picks, props, and best bets for the card.
There’s a small change to the betting guide. Going forward, every official bet will include a unit size, and each guide will feature a betting record and unit recap for added transparency and consistency.
If you’re unfamiliar with units, they’re a standardized way to measure bet size regardless of bankroll. As a general rule, 1 unit should equal 1% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is $1,000, one unit is $10. If it’s $5,000, one unit is $50.
Most importantly, sports betting should be fun, not a source of financial stress. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, stick to a bankroll that fits your situation, and never chase losses. Wager responsibly!
UFC Vegas 120 Prelims
Miles Johns (-162) vs. Jessie Rosas (+136)
Pick: Jessie Rosas ML +136 | 1u
This is a total fade of the declining Miles Johns. After Johns was suspended in 2023 for PEDs, he’s been unable to regain any momentum, and he’s now on an 0-3 stretch where he was submitted by known striker Daniel Marcos.
Johns struggles in extended fights. His production dips after round one and I think that’s where the younger Jessie Rosas will be able to take advantage. At 23, it’s fair for Rosas to be the underdog, but I like that he can both strike and wrestle at a decent pace. I think his skillset and youth is the difference in a close fight seeing that Johns is bound to slow down at some point.
Manoel Sousa (-290) vs. Richie Miranda (+235)
Pick: Manoel Sousa -3.5 -145 | 1.5u
I’m very high on Manoel Sousa so I will take stock in him against the newcomer Richie Miranda.
It’s usually a red flag when fighters are debuting in their 30s, and we have that with Miranda. The former LFA champ is as tough as they come, but I don’t see any real high-level skill from him. He’s primarily a wrestler who can push a decent pace. However, his striking is sub-par, as he’s often throwing inaccurate punches and has no kick game.
Sousa is the opposite of a sub-par striker. The Brazilian has legit power and should be able to handle the wrestling pressure after being in similar matchups already. As long as this fight is standing, he should be in the drivers seat, so I’ll take him to cover the spread seeing that he’s clearly the more dangerous fighter.
Steven Asplund (-290) vs. Guilherme Pat (+235)
Pick: Fight Doesn’t go the Distance -125 | 4u
Heavyweights close the prelims this week when Steven Asplund takes on Guilherme Pat.
As the four unit play suggests, this is one of my favorite plays of the card as I think we’re getting a discount price on one of these two ending this fight. Majority of these two’s fights have ended by TKO, but recently they have gone to decision against fighters who were able to slow the pace.
Although Pat may be interested in doing just that, Asplund can be high volume early and anything can happen late between these two low-level heavyweights. Both are also in make or break spots after dropping their last fights in disappointing fashions.
Seeing that this should be all striking, I’ll take this price on this one to end within three.
UFC Vegas 120 Main Card
Ty Miller (-345) vs. Billy Ray Goff (+275)
Pick: Ty Miler -5.5 -145 | 4u
I really like this spot for Ty Miller. The former Golden Gloves champion has looked great, throwing fight-ending combinations and he has length to make for a tough matchup for anyone.
Here, he gets a tough, but very hittable Billy Ray Goff. Goff has absorbed a ton of damage in just a couple fights with the UFC and it doesn’t look like he’s interested in changing his fight style. Knowing that this will be the most dangerous striker he’s faced so far, I don’t see how Miller isn’t constantly scoring to keep this fight in his favor. It’ll take a big moment for Goff to swing a round, as Miller will be too technical for him to win minutes.
I’ll take Miller to cover the -5.5 number which means he only needs one 30-27 scorecard or a finish. Since I favor him to get the TKO, I think this a good price in case Goff ends up being a tough out.
Darren Elkins (+550) vs. Yadier del Valle (-800)
Pick: Yadier del Valle by Submisson or Decision +100
Darren Elkins confirmed this week that this will be his last MMA fight. The long-time UFC vet will retire after 31 fights with the company. Over the years, Elkins provided entertaining fights for the fan-base, but it’s good to see him go after his scary knockout loss last year where he took a lot of damage against Julian Erosa.
Fade the retiring fighter. However, the sports books are doing the same as everything favoring Yadier del Valle is unplayable. The only value I see is on the submission props seeing that del Valle is a good grappler and his last two wins have come by submission.
Take the heavy favorite to get this done by submission or decision at plus money.
Amanda Lemos (+215) vs. Alexia Thainara (-265)
Pick: Alexia Thainara -3.5 +100 | 1u
I’m a believer in Alexia Thainara‘s game. The 28-year-old brings an exciting fight style to the weight class as she pumps out a high striking volume and has grappling to back it up. She has decent judo and wrestling to get fights to the mat and I think that ends up being the story against the aging Amanda Lemos.
I don’t see this recent version of Lemos keeping up with the pace, so I’ll take plus money on Thainara to dominate this fight since a heavy control time winning path is in play.
Carlos Diego Ferreira (-175) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+145)
Pick: Billy Quarantillo +3.5 -110 | 0.75u & ML +145 | 0.25u
I view this as a close fight between the two veterans.
Carlos Deigo Ferreira is now 41 and Billy Quarantillo is not too far behind him at 37. Although I see why Ferreira is the favorite as the more defensibly responsible fighter, I think Quarantillo’s speed will be the difference after watching Ferreira’s deteriorating punch speed in his last showing.
I also think the year off for Quarantillo may have done him some good after the damage he’s taken in recent years. I’ll take a majority stake on him to survive and win a round, and a quarter unit on him to win the fight.
Mateusz Gamrot (+114) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-135)
Pick: Quillan Sakilld ML -135 | 1u
I’m going to bet on the future in this matchup between rising prospect and craft veteran. Mateusz Gamrot is a legitimate test for any young fighter coming up, but his striking hasn’t improved enough over the years for him the shed the wrestling or bust title that has limited his ceiling in a stacked lightweight division.
Quillan Salkilld is a skilled grappler himself and he’s also big for the class. After watching his finishes that got him to this point, its safe to say all of the finishing upside resides with him, so he’s the clear side at current prices. One unit on the favorite, and free to scale up if money comes in on Gamrot come fight day.
Official Bets Recap
- Jessie Rosas ML +136 | 1u
- Manoel Sousa -3.5 -145 | 1.5u
- Steve Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat Fight Doesn’t go the Distance -125 | 4u
- Ty Miler -5.5 -145 | 4u
- Alexia Thainara -3.5 +100 | 1u
- Billy Quarantillo +3.5 -110 | 0.75u & ML +145 | 0.25u
- Quillan Sakilld ML -135 | 1u
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