UFC 321: Main Card Predictions
Read Time:7 Minute, 33 Second
The Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi is set to host the UFC’s return to the Middle East on October 25th for UFC 321. Headlining the event is a UFC Heavyweight Championship clash between current champion Tom Aspinall and former interim titleholder Ciryl Gane.
The co-main event features a historic UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship bout for the vacant title, as former Invicta FC champion Virna Jandiroba battles Mackenzie Dern in a rematch nearly five years in the making.
We break down every main card fight, offering predictions, analysis, and insight into who’s poised to rise on fight night:
Heavyweight Championship
Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Ciryl Gane (1)
Lee: On paper this should be a 50-50 fight. The champion has looked and has been very dominant. The challenger is very athletic and light on his feet. Ciryl Gane is very focused going into this fight. However, he will need to show great improvement in his grappling to be victorious in this championship tilt.
Tom Aspinall is the more explosive fighter with knockout power. But, he should lean on his grappling and jiu-jitsu in this fight. Gane was submitted by Jon Jones in his last title fight and Francis Ngannou landed four takedowns and had over eight minutes of ground control when he beat Gane. Can Aspinall’s strengths expose Gane’s weaknesses?
Official Prediction: Tom Aspinall via 2nd-Round Submission
Evan: I say this with the utmost respect to my counterpart, but calling this a 50-50 fight on paper is frankly absurd. Aspinall is the superior fighter in every realm and I’d even argue he’s a better athlete than Gane. My only trepidation with this matchup is Aspinall’s propensity to constantly exit the pocket with his chin directly in the air. At heavyweight with four ounce gloves, anything can happen.
If Tom gets careless on the feet, there definitely is a scenario where Ciryl could catch him in an exchange. I firmly believe though that the Englishman is candidly too much for the French challenger. Aspinall’s speed, power and footwork on the feet should give Gane big issues.
Grappling wise, Tom is on a different planet with his skills too. I’m backing him to steamroll Ciryl with an emphatic, dominant performance.
Official Prediction: Tom Aspinall via 1st-Round KO or Submission
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Virna Jandiroba (1) vs. Mackenzie Dern (5)
Lee: The vacant UFC strawweight title will be on the line when Virna Jandiroba faces Mackenzie Dern. Both ladies represent the future of the 115-pound division. This fight is expected to take place mostly on the ground, with both fighters being elite-level grapplers.
Jandiroba has finished 14 of her 22 victories by submission, while Dern has submitted 8 of her 15 opponents. Dern earned a unanimous decision victory in their December 2020 encounter at UFC 256. This fight will hinge on which fighter can land significant strikes and win those exchanges.
I am leaning towards Jandiroba to do just that as her striking has evolved considerably as seen in her recent performances showing increased confidence standing up. Can Jandiroba’s current momentum outlast Dern’s patience and technical precision?
Official Prediction: Virna Jandiroba via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This is another matchup I don’t really have a strong feeling about and a rematch that I’m honestly not all that excited for. Dern is the better athlete, and finisher of the two, whereas Jandiroba is the more consistent fighter here.
Both are top tier grapplers, but Mackenzie’s wrestling ability has been largely sloppy for most of her career. She’s also extremely hittable on the feet and her striking has always been technically lacking. However, she’s also shown some steady, small improvements in both areas in her most recent Octagon outings.
Her power is very real for this weight class as well, and she’s a flat out dog in how she pursues the finish. I expect Virna to be a stingy competitor and maybe even run away with this one in the latter rounds. But I’m going to side with Dern strictly on the basis of her being the more talented fighter.
Official Prediction: Mackenzie Dern via Unanimous Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Umar Nurmagomedov (2) vs. Mario Bautista (8)
Lee: This matchup features two fighters at different stages of their career trajectories. Umar Nurmagomedov, is coming off his first professional loss of his career while Bautista enters carrying an eight-fight winning streak. A victory for either fighter could position him for a title opportunity.
Although Bautista is riding a wave of momentum, I believe he has to approach this fight as a hungry contender with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Nurmagomedov will look to get back to his dominant wrestling style and keep the better striker Bautista grounded. If this were a five-round fight I would lean towards Bautista, but it’s not.
Official Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Split Decision
Evan: So there’s a few things I’m not on the same page with Lee here. I don’t buy whatsoever that Mario Bautista is a better striker than Nurmagomedov or that a five round bout would even favor him. Umar is pretty soundly the better fighter in basically every facet of the game, and much more dynamic offensively.
Mario’s best chance at pulling off the upset will be to stall Nurmagomedov out in the clinch, out-work him with his pace, and frustrate his rhythm. With that being said, I still think Umar can beat Bautista in that type of fight, and neutralize him positionally. I just see the Dagastani contender outclassing Mario from pillar to post.
Official Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision
Heavyweight Bout
Alexander Volkov (2) vs. Jailton Almeida (5)
Lee: This heavyweight matchup represents great matchmaking in a top-heavy division that lacks depth outside the top 10. Volkov looks to rebound after a supremely controversial decision loss to Ciryl Gane and Jailton Almeida looks to extend his winning streak to three straight after his sole UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes.
Alexander Volkov is the classic heavyweight technician and will have to maintain distance and control the pace of the fight. Almeida, the new breed of heavyweight, combines athleticism with dominant grappling skills. This is the classic striker versus grappler fight. Volkov will need to showcase his 72% defending takedown success in this fight. Almeida has a 65% striking accuracy, but his volume is a lowly 2.62 strikes per minute.
Official Prediction: Alexander Volkov via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: Lee hit the nail on the head, this is the epitome of a striker versus grappler matchup. This fight ultimately comes down to whether Almeida can get takedowns and create scramble opportunities on the mat. According to UFC Stats, the Brazilian contender averages a whopping 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes.
He’s going to need to be relentless in his pursuit of pushing Volkov against the cage and drowning him on the ground. He might simply just get one takedown and run Alexander over. Ultimately though, I believe the Russian giant will be able to stifle Jailton’s grappling attack and pick him apart on the feet en route to a victory.
Official Prediction: Alexander Volkov via 2nd-Round TKO
Light Heavyweight Bout
Aleksandar Rakic (7) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (10)
Lee: This fight could signal a changing of the guard in the light heavyweight division. Aleksandar Rakic who was once viewed as a future champion, is limping into this fight on a 3-fight losing streak while Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated in his UFC career (5 fights). This will be a step up in competition for Murzakanov.
Rakic will look to use his impressive reach (78 inches) and technical striking to keep the fight at distance. In his recent losses he has failed to maintain distance and control the pace of fight. Murzakanov uses a southpaw stance with explosive power which has been problematic for all his opponents.
I think this fight will come down to who has the better cardio if the fight goes all three rounds. Do we have an upset brewing?
Official Prediction: Azamat Murzakanov via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: I don’t really have a strong lean in this one either way. I’m still not sure Murzakanov is all that good. But, he’s clearly a compact fighter who carries seemingly fight altering power. Rakic on the other hand is the more versatile fighter of the two. However, the combination of his injury history and durability issues makes it hard to be super confident in him to win any meaningful fight at this stage of his career.
I’ll go ahead though and take a flier on Aleksandar. I just feel he’s a slicker, rangier striker than Azamat, and the superior grappler here. I think he’ll control the distance with his kicks and length, while scoring takedowns when needed.
Official Prediction: Aleksandar Rakic via Unanimous Decision
Happy
67 %
Sad
0 %
Excited
17 %
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
0 %
Surprise
17 %
About Post Author
