Full UFC OKC Betting Guide: Can Kamaru Usman Pull Off Another Upset?
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UFC is back on the road with its return to Oklahoma City. The promotion last visited Thunder Town in 2017, and it returns with an underrated card packed with exciting matchups.
In the main event, we’ll see the former middleweight champion, Dricus Du Plessis, take on the longtime welterweight king, Kamaru Usman. Leading up to their clash will be an interesting mix of future ranked fighters and potential number one contenders.
Let’s take a look at the most intriguing matchups on the card and find where the betting value lies.
Prelims
Dione Barbosa (-550) vs. Anna Melisano (+400)
Pick: Anna Melisano ML +400
This is a fade of Dione Barbosa at this price since she is solely a ground threat. When forced to strike, Barbosa hasn’t responded well to being hit and she can slow down when met with adversity. Luckily for her, her last matchups were ground wars so this flaw hasn’t come to light recently.
However, if you watch her debut fight against another long striker, she faded late and was beat to the punch often. It resulted in a dropped round in what could’ve been a loss for the Brazilian.
Anna Melisano is exactly what gave Barbosa problems in that debut fight. She’s long and willing to throw. The 29-year-old pops a solid jab and even has deadly up the middle elbows that could lead to visible damage on her opponents. I see why she’s the underdog as a work-in-progress prospect. But, I still view this line as wide seeing that Barbosa is older and nothing special.
A sprinkle on Melisano is worth and if you want more value, take the dog by decision at +900.
Alden Coria (-1100) vs. Stewart Nicoll (+700)
Pick: Alden Coria by TKO +140
I had my eye on Stewart Nicoll when he signed with the UFC.
Unfortunately, it’s been a disaster for him since coming over as he’s now 0-3, losing by submission, decision and TKO. As a result, he now walks in as the largest dog on the card when he takes on Alden Coria.
Although Coria may not deserve this number, he has shown enough to get past the struggling Nicoll. Nicoll is a grappling or bust product, so Coria will only have to worry about the takedowns till Nicoll slows down. It’ll be open season for Coria after and I see him landing enough to force the stoppage at some point.
Seok Hyeon Ko (-205) vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (+170)
Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani ML +170
Trust me when I say this is no fade of Seok Hyeon Ko. The Korean fighter looks like a legitimate nightmare matchup for many due to his relentless wrestling pressure. Ko is now 2-0 inside the UFC using just that, and the market has now taken notice after he debuted as +300 underdog.
With that said, I don’t view Ko as dangerous as a matchup for the also new Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani. Lebosnoyani is a BJJ blackbelt with half of his ten wins coming by submission. His grappling defense could give Ko issues when it comes to banking control time.
We’ve yet to see how Ko will respond if he has to stand for long periods.
Since I rate Lebosnoyani as the better striker, I think a plus money bet on him here is worth it in case he can handle Ko’s wrestling. I had this lined as a closer fight and others have seemed to agree since money has trickled in on the dog. Grab Lebosnoyani here while you still can.
Jose Delgado (-115) vs. Austin Bashi (-105)
Pick: Jose Delgado ML -115
Jose Delgado was a -400 favorite against Andre Fili. He was -150 against Nathaniel Wood, and now he’s at pick em’ odds against the 1-1 UFC record Austin Bashi. Granted, Delgado is 1-1 in those two matchups with his win being a split-decision.
But, I still don’t see why Bashi is getting this much respect without proving anything.
Of course, styles make fights, and bettors are looking at Bashi’s wrestling being the difference since Delgado has been taken down in the past. My response to that is Bashi is in the wrong weight class. Here he’ll give up five inches of height and four inches of reach to the explosive Delgado.
Delgado has also missed weight in the past, so he could be significantly heavier come Saturday night. This plus improvements from Delgado could result in a Bashi wrestling game plan failing, leading to the smaller Bashi having to close a significant gap when trying to strike.
If this turns out to be a proper market correction on Delgado, so be it. But I like getting the battled-tested Mexican seeing that he’s the better striker and will have a meaningful size advantage in the pick em’ fight.
Main Card
Tommy McMillen (-140) vs. Alberto Montes (+120)
Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds -115
This first fight on our main card has been debated heavily within the community. Mostly because the fanbase has been drawn to Tommy McMillen because of his ties to the popular Sean O’Malley.
McMillen’s debut was interesting to say the least. He came out guns blazing in what was a wild brawl for the four minutes it lasted. The result was a TKO win for McMillen, bringing his record to a still perfect 10-0.
As the line suggests, he should get a proper challenge this time around from Alberto Montes. Like McMillen, Montes came in from the Contender Series, and is 1-0 in the UFC. He locked in a front choke against Ricky Turcios in his debut. His fourth win a row coming by such.
This fight was a virtual pick em’ to start the week until money came in on McMillen. I agree with the movement due to McMillen have the wrestling to ground a smaller Montes. Montes reliance on front chokes could make for a situation where he accepts McMillen’s advances. I think McMillen’s physicality should allow him to take advantage.
Still, I think both are low level fighters. So, I don’t mind an under play after seeing McMillen’s pace in his last fight. Montes is no stranger to a finish either as his last six have ended within two rounds.
I’d much rather bet on violence than a winner here.
Tabatha Ricci (+350) vs. Fatima Kline (-450)
Pick: Fatima Kline -3.5 -135
I have high hopes for Fatima Kline. The BJJ blackbelt has looked great at every level and is 3-0 when in her natural weight class. Training partners with Erin Blanchfield, Kline has quickly shown that she belongs. With a win against Tabatha Ricci here, I expect the matchmakers to give her number one contender opportunities as soon as the end of this year.
Ricci has the skillset to properly test Kline, but Kline’s size advantage should allow her to score on the outside, then bully the smaller Ricci on the inside. Ricci is best when she can take advantage of someone with holes and unfortunately for her, that’s not Kline.
I like Kline to continue to show how high her ceiling by winning at every level. She should cover the -3.5 spread with a late finish or a clear decision win.
Chase Hooper (-350) vs. Mitch Ramirez (+275)
Pick: Mitch Ramierez by TKO +550
Chase Hooper has wet the bed multiple times but continues to get favorable bookings by the matchmakers. He’s been knocked out in two straight fights as the clear favorite, so it’s only right to continue to bet against him until he shows he can take a punch.
Unfortunately, I’m not as confident in Mitch Ramirez as I was in the past when I bet against Hooper. Ramirez only has 11 fights and has yet to get his hand raised inside the UFC.
What we do know about Ramirez is that he can hit hard, so I’ll play his KO prop at higher odds since my confidence is low. Knowing the obvious game plan coming his way, my hope is that Ramirez is ready to Hooper’s mediocre wrestling, and catches him with something big.
Jared Cannonier (+290) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-370)
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan ML for Parlays
Christian Leroy Duncan’s build hasn’t been clean but he’s seemed to turn a corner since dropping his second UFC loss to Gregory Rodrigues in 2024. Since then his aggression has been turned up when needed and he’s now entering his prime years.
Completely away from their prime is Jared Cannonier. The 42-year-old has now lost three of his last four and the one win was a fight that saw him almost finished at one point.
I will admit that Cannonier doesn’t look like most elder fighter’s exiting the sport. He will still have KO potential since power is the last thing to leave a fighter and he’s at least been competitive during this losing streak.
However, Leroy Duncan will hold a significant speed advantage and I think that’ll eventually be Cannonier’s downfall. CLD’s overall athleticism makes him a safe parlay piece this week.
Dricus Du Plessis (-230) vs. Kamaru Usman (+190)
Pick: Kamaru Usman +9.5 -130
The welterweight GOAT will take on the interesting Dricus Du Plessis. I say interesting because his fight style is unique.
Du Plessis comes barreling forward from awkward angles and he’s used this style to catch guys for finishes. He already has finishes against fighters from Usaman’s era, and the former champ will be looking for another as he looks to throw his name back in the mix for middleweight gold.
The 21-4 Kamaru Usman has only been stopped twice over his 14-year career. A submission loss in his second ever fight and then the infamous head kick heard around the world against Leon Edwards in 2023. His other two losses have come by majority decisions in close fights against Edwards and Khamzat Chimaev.
The books favor this fight to go the distance and Du Plessis has only seen the cards four times in his career. One a loss, one majority decision win, and the two others being unanimous wins where he at least dropped a round on one scorecard.
Now 39 and up a weight class, bettors and the community have began to write Usman off as his eventual retirement nears.
Although I agree he has an uphill climb against the powerful Du Plessis, I have to take this playable number on him to survive and at least win one round seeing that’s he’s still shown to at least be competitive at this level. The man has an 11-2 decision record for a reason.
I think he’ll still be a tough out in what could be a close fight entering the championship rounds.
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