Full UFC Sacramento Betting Guide: Best Bets, Underdogs & Betting Picks
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UFC Sacramento brings a sneaky-stacked 13-fight card to Golden 1 Center, featuring rising contenders, intriguing prospects, and a high-stakes middleweight main event between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues.
With a card this deep, there are plenty of intriguing betting spots to sort through. I’ve broken down every matchup from the opening prelim to the main event, searching for the best value the market has to offer.
Last week’s results for UFC 330: -7.10u. Majority of our bets had moments but failed to convert. Puts us deeper into a hole but the bounce back starts now!
Now, let’s dive into the card and see where the money is worth putting down:
Prelims
Shanelle Dyer (-950) vs. Elise Reed (+625)
Pick: Shanelle Dyer by TKO +115
Money continues to pour in on Shanelle Dyer. The favorite started the week in the -500 range and will probably close double that.
I can see why since Elise Reed’s karate style will make for a great matchup for Dyer. Dyer’s volume and power should be the difference and I think she ends up catching Reed with something late. Reed’s open, hands low stance has done her no favors when it comes to avoiding shots and Dyer’s lethal kicks will be something to watch.
Since Dyer has ballooned this far, just take her by her most realistic win path in this matchup, and that’s by TKO.
Wes Schultz (+145) vs. Jackson McVey (-175)
Pick: Jackson McVey ML -175
Jackson McVey is the more aggressive striker of the two and I trust his durability more so he’s the pick. He also some submissions skills to counter the strongest part of Wes Schultz game.
But ultimately, this fight is too low-level to bet. Probably best unwatched as well.
Gauge Young (-120) vs. Stanley Dorsainvil (+100)
Pick: Gauge Young ML -120 | 2.5u
Stanley Dorsainvil looks like an exciting prospect. He’s long, throws diverse strikes and isn’t afraid to push forward with agression.
However, Gauge Young is a well-rounded fighter that’ll be a tough matchup on short notice. Young can handle a fight wherever it goes and he already has wins over UFC vets. My only concern is Young’s striking volume, as he has had periods where he looks tentative.
Dorsainvil tends to stand flat-footed and directly in front of opponents. If Young lets his hands go, I can see him landing the majority of his power strikes and since he has more experience and is on the right side of a short notice fight, I see value in him in this closely lined fight.
Ryan Kuse (+550) vs. Márcio Barbosa (-800)
Pick: Marcio Barbosa by TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 -300
Ryan Kuse is being brought in for some reason to take on the hard hitting Marcio Barbosa. Kuse seems like a tough fighter but he presents no danger as a eleven fight 32-year-old with no special ability.
Meanwhile, Barbosa hits like a tank, has almost double the amount of fights, and has already made his UFC debut where he may be the front-runner for KO of the year.
I don’t know why we see matchups like these when we have the Contender Series. Give me the predictable Barbosa by TKO in rounds one or two for a parlay piece.
Chris Padilla (+105) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (-125)
Pick: Fight to be Won by Split or Majority Decision +400
It seems like everyone is Chris Padilla but the price has been stagnant. I also had Padilla penciled until I decided to leave him off my card.
The main reason for staying away from Padilla is his pressure wasn’t like I remembered after review. Padilla is dangerous inside the clinch and can throw a good straight. However, he’s had matchups where he’s kept fights in the center of the octagon and I think that’ll be a critical mistake against Nasrat Haqparast.
Haqparast may be nothing special, but he can get his striking going if you allow him to make his reads and get settled. If he’s not being pushed back in this matchup, I can see him performing well, leading to another close fight for these two on the scorecards.
Shamil Gaziev (-135) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+114)
Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO +215
Kennedy Nzechukwu will have to keep Shamil Gaziev off of him to have a chance here. The favorite will walk in the heavier man and he does have some wrestling to take advantage of it.
With that said, Gaziev can absorb a good amount of damage in prolonged stand-up fights and Nzechukwu will have the speed and length to take advantage. I do believe this fight is tough to call though, so I’d lean toward taking plus money on the dog’s best path.
Jamall Emmers (+310) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-395)
Pick: Jamall Emmers +5.5 +200
This will be a tough sell if you watched Lerryan Douglas’ last fight. Douglas hurt his opponent with almost every punch landed, leading to his 8th TKO win in 14 fights. An impressive debut that has put a spotlight on the hard hitting Brazilian.
Still, Jamall Emmers is a great fighter who doesn’t lack anywhere. He has power him self and he showed in his last fight that he could use his wrestling for 15 minutes if needed. I do worry about his durability, especially at his age, but with the market so heavily favored toward Douglas, this is a dog or pass spot seeing that Emmers could hold his own if he stays upright.
Main Card
Anthony Wint (-1000) vs. Terrance Chatman (+650)
Pick: Anthony Wint by TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 -260
I have similar thoughts in this matchup that were shared for Kuse Barbosa earlier.
Anthony Wint is debuting after a Contender Series win last week, and the promotion responds but giving him another Contender Series level matchup. This one does make more sense since Wint is a former NFL player and will need to be fed guys in order to develop.
Similar to Kuse, Terrance Chatman also seems like a tough guy but he will be out powered. Wint should blitz him early for a TKO victory.
Carli Judice (-575) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+425)
Pick: Jeisla Chaves +5.5 +110 | 1u
I like what I’ve seen from Carli Judice as a future prospect. She’s athletic and has solid boxing. What makes her legit is that she’s still only 27, so there’s plenty of time for the former softball start to develop her MMA skillset.
However, in her two fights against better talent, Judice dropped both fights by split-decision. She also dropped a round in her recent fight against Juliana Miller.
Judice definitely has the higher ceiling, but Jeisla Chaves does have a style that can frustrate Judice. Chaves has a great one two combination and she seems interested in sticking and moving. I can definitely see her doing enough to make a round close against the still green Judice and there could possible be a grappling path for the underdog. Cardio concerns chases me off the ML, so I’ll take the +5.5 spread at plus money.
Mason Jones (-285) vs. MarQuel Mederos (+230)
Pick: Mason Jones -3.5 -125 | 1u
I had some belief in MarQuel Mederos but he’s failed to impress with his time in the UFC. He has a skillset to develop and he’s at a great camp at Factor-X. However, he hasn’t reacted well to pressure and I don’t sense that he has much power in his strikes to keep aggressive fighters off him.
As a result, he’s had some close fights against some low-level guys so I will go with the tough Mason Jones to win and cover the -3.5 spread. Jones pressure and well roundedness makes for a scenario where if he wins, it’s by pushing forward, landing big shots and possibly racking up control time. A scenario I could see playing out against Mederos, so I will take him to either win 30-27 or by finish.
Reinier de Ridder (-375) vs. Roman Dolidze (+295)
Pick: Roman Dolidze ML +295
Reinier de Ridder has moved up to 205 for this matchup. A move he’s been talking about after his weight cuts at middleweight started to take a toll on him. He’ll take on Roman Dolidze, who started at light-heavyweight, but eventually made his way down to middle.
de Ridder has had bad performances where it’s fair to say he’s given up on himself and I always thought he was too hittable to trust at chalk. At the same time, Dolidze hasn’t had a great performance in a couple years now, and I’m not sure if the move up will do him as many favors as it will for the bigger de Ridder.
I can see how de Ridder gets this price, but Dolidze has good grappling and could easily win by creating big moments with his striking. I don’t have much confidence in either, though. Dog or pass.
Serghei Spivac (+124) vs. Vitor Petrino (-148)
Pick: Vitor Petrino by TKO +200
Vitor Petrino is now on fight three of his move to heavyweight. He’s 3-0 but will face his toughest test since against the long time staple in the class, Serghei Spivac.
Spivac’s success relies on his ground game and his recent takedown success hasn’t been there. He was able to out-strike his opponent in his last fight, but that may not be a performance to rely on for future bouts.
Power has been the downfall for Spivac, as he’s been knocked out in four of his six losses. Knowing that, I’d rather take Petrino TKO at +200 since he’s a hard hitter. Pray this one hits because it’ll be a long 15 minutes of hugging and inactivity if it doesn’t.
Anthony Hernandez (-166) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+140)
Pick: Anthony Hernandez -5.5 -125 | 2u
This is a funny matchup where the eye test doesn’t match the odds. Gregory Rodrigues is a towering figure made of rock, while Anthony Hernandez wouldn’t turn a single head in public.
The last time we seen Rodrigues is a five round fight, he almost had Jared Cannonier finished early. Once Cannonier survived, Rodrigues gas tank fell off a cliff and he end up getting finished himself.
That’ll be a common angle for Hernandez backers this week and I think it’s one to lean on. Hernandez knows he just has to stay safe for the first ten minutes and he has the wrestling and grappling to work this game plan. I think he does just that, sticks to Rodrigues from round two and on to cover this spread.
Official Bets
- Gauge Young ML -120 | 2.5u
- Jeisla Chaves +5.5 +110 | 1u
- Mason Jones -3.5 -125 | 1u
- Anthony Hernandez -5.5 -125 | 2u
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