UFC 330 First Look: Early Betting Value on Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
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UFC 330 fight week is here. As the countdown to Saturday’s action begins, it’s time to take a look at the odds and see where the early value might be.
Here are a couple of spots worth considering before fight week gets underway:
Islam Makhachev (-355) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+280)
I view Ian Garry as Islam Makhachev‘s toughest opponent since Alexander Volkanovski. Especially when we factor in Makhachev’s recent move to a new weight class after the former champ, Jack Della Maddalena, gave no push back in Makhachev’s debut at 170.
Garry’s experience and skillset makes this a closer matchup than this number suggests. The challenger has the both the size and BJJ to make for a good dog play at this number. In a dog or pass spot, I’ll take one unit on him now, and we’ll see if we get any movement come fight day for a re-entry.
Pick: Ian Garry ML +280 | 1u
Mackenzie Dern (-258) vs. Gillian Robertson (+210)
I’m all Mackenzie Dern in this matchup. Gillian Robertson’s heavy wrestling style is the exact type of fight that fits Dern’s strength as a high-level BJJ practitioner. It’s also worth noting that Dern has gone five rounds in four fights thus far and this is Robertson’s first 25 minute fight.
Still, I’ll wait till the prop market releases to see where I can get a discount on the champion since she is a fighter that can fall victim to let-downs. I’ll be looking at Dern by submission or decision double chance or a spread play to get a better number.
Lean: Makenzie Dern by Submission or Decision
Joel Alvarez (-230) vs. Chidi Njokuani (+190)
Although Joel Alvarez ceiling has lowered since being forced to go up a weight class, I still think he’s able to get past the aging Chidi Njokuani.
Njokuani has very poor cardio and he’s been vocal about his weight-cuts to 170 damaging his body. Somehow, he’s been able to stay in the class and keep his relevancy, but his strength of schedule has been overall poor and his mileage is starting to add up.
I view Alvarez as the best, most prime fighter he’s had to face in recent years. So, I’ll parlay the favorite with another slam spot coming up, and take an individual stock once props come out.
Pick: Joel Alvarez ML for parlay
Jeremiah Wells (+455) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-625)
I won’t go to deep into a -625 favorite. The number reflects how dominate Myktybek Orolbai has looked, even after being forced to move up a weight class. Orolbai is now 2-0 in two flawless showings in his new class, both against elder fighters.
He gets the same against the 39-year-old Jeremiah Wells. Wells has some wrestling to put up a fight, but Orolbai’s pace will be too tough for any aging fighter to keep up with. Orolbai is off a fight where he shot 20+ takedowns and I simply think that’ll be too much for Wells to keep up with.
The -625 favorite is a good anchor piece this week.
Pick: Myktybek Orolbai ML for parlay
Official Bets
- Ian Garry ML +280 | 1u
- Joel Alvarez ML and Myktybek Orolbai ML Parlay -152 | 2.5u
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