In this Saturday’s main event at UFC Wichita, we will see Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis facing off against Junior “Cigano” dos Santos in what will be a pivotal heavyweight bout.
Lewis was last seen in the Octagon in Madison Square Garden, at UFC 230 vs UFC heavyweight champion, Daniel Cormier. In this fight, Lewis was having success early on in the striking exchanges. Although DC’s wrestling ability quickly began to wear away at Lewis, as he was being taken down repeatedly. DC finished the fight in the second-round, by way of rear naked choke.
Cigano was last seen in the Octagon at UFC Adelaide, where he faced off against Tai Tuivasa in the main event of the evening. Tuivasa was having success early on in the fight, largely due to his constant pressure and heavy hands. Tuivasa was backing JDS up against the cage and forcing the action but it wasn’t enough. JDS showed his veteran status by weathering the storm and cruising his way to a second-round knockout victory over Tuivasa.
In this weekend’s main event, Derrick Lewis is a +200 Underdog vs dos Santos, who is sitting as a -250 Favorite. When you look at both of their most recent fights, it is easy to say that JDS looked a bit more impressive.
However, I am here to explain just how I believe that Derrick Lewis can and will, overcome the odds and win this fight vs JDS on Saturday night.
Now, let’s jump right into some analysis here:
Prior to his fight with Cormier at UFC 230, Lewis had just pulled off a huge third-round knockout victory over Alexander Volkov in the co-main event of UFC 229. In that fight, Volkov had a lot of success, landing various combinations on Lewis. And Lewis appeared to be hurt quite a few times during those three rounds. Although one huge thing to note about Derrick Lewis is this: this guy doesn’t get knocked out.
Derrick Lewis has only been stopped twice in his entire career, which consists of 27 professional fights. JDS has 14 KOs in his career but most of those were years ago. He doesn’t seem to possess the same type of power that he once did. Meanwhile, Derrick Lewis still has extreme power, packing a nasty right hand and devastating ground-and-pound. I believe, if there is ever a point during this fight, where Lewis finds himself in top position, it’s all over.
Even though JDS is on a 2-fight win streak right now, both opponents had success doing a certain thing. They applied pressure by continuing to back him up and throw hands. Tuivasa almost had him out of there but he got caught with a shot while coming in. Stipe Miocic defeated JDS by first-round knockout back in 2017, at UFC 211. Miocic kept pressure on JDS and controlled the pace of the fight. Miocic never really allowed JDS to come forward. He kept pressuring him to move backwards until he was against the cage. Miocic was able to land a big shot and hammered away, finishing the fight. I believe that Derrick Lewis can do the same thing this Saturday.
If Lewis can move in quickly and apply pressure on JDS, he can keep him in close distance and find the early finish. That will be his key to victory here. Lewis will want to keep pressing the action, early on, not leaving any room for JDS to come forward and create a brawl. I believe that if Lewis can apply pressure early on and back up JDS, he can utilize that heavy right hand of his and secure the finish.
With all of that being said, I will be officially taking Derrick Lewis to win by KO/TKO.