UFC 313: Main Card Predictions
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The UFC returns to its home base at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for an action-packed UFC 313. The third pay-per-view of the year takes place this Saturday, headlined by two massive fights.
Alex Pereira faces his toughest title defense yet against Magomed Ankalaev. The UFC also salvaged Dan Hooker’s withdrawal with a thrilling rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. With a strong undercard also in place, fight fans are in for a treat.
Check out our staff predictions for the main card of UFC 313:
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Alex Pereira (c) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (1)
Lee: Will Alex Pereira finally be tested when he faces Magomed Ankalaev? This fight comes down to whether Ankalaev can take down the champ and control the fight on the mat. Pereira knows this as well and his camp is preparing him as best they can for Ankalaev’s grappling. The challenger has an above average ground game with average striking. There is no way the challenger wants to exchange strikes with the champ. If so, it will be an early night. Ankalaev needs to make this a 25-minute war to have any chance at winning this fight. Can Ankalaev’s ground game be better than Pereira’s striking?
Official Prediction: Alex Pereira via 2nd-Round KO/TKO.
Seth: Many fans are coming into this fight thinking Magomed Ankalaev is a mismatch for Alex Pereira. Ankalaev surely poses a threat on the ground, however Pereira possesses the same advantage on the feet. While Ankalaev is coming off an impressive win against Rakic, and KO of Johnny Walker to kickstart 2024, Pereira has done lethal damage to everyone who challenged for his title. History will favor the wrestler to come home with the gold. But, I feel Poatan’s power and unique finishing ability will come through for him yet again. Early in the fight, I see Pereira landing a huge shot, giving Ankalaev no chance to capitalize on his wrestling advantage.
Official Prediction: Alex Pereira via 1st-Round KO/TKO.
Lightweight Bout
Justin Gaethje (3) vs. Rafael Fiziev (11)
Marcos: Justin Gaethje has to prove to me that he can still take some damage following the career-altering loss to Holloway. Lucky for him, he faces Rafael Fiziev, who does not pose as much danger as some of the other top lightweights. I don’t believe the short notice will affect Fiziev strategically, as he has prepared for Gaethje in the past. Fiziev’s lack of energy deep into fights makes me think we see a similar outcome to the first meeting. Especially when you consider that he hasn’t had a full camp to work on his conditioning. The first few rounds should be an exciting striking affair, with Gaethje taking over down the stretch.
Official Prediction: Justin Gaethje via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I’m simultaneously disappointed and relieved we aren’t getting the initial Gaethje-Hooker matchup. That had the potential to be a car crash neither man would ever fully recover from. But Rafael Fiziev is a fantastic late replacement opponent. Marcos is spot on with his concerns over Gaethje’s durability, given the amount of damage he’s taken throughout his career. In their first meeting, Justin’s resilience in the final round helped him edge out the victory over Rafael on the judges scorecards. His head hunting and power clearly wore down Fiziev over the course of the fight. However, I think Rafael did some great work too. He can make some slight adjustments to improve his chances of victory this time around.
According to UFC Stats, 53% of his significant strikes were targeted to the body, and he landed only seven leg kicks back in their initial outing. I believe he should look to change that, using the body shots to bring Gaethje’s high guard down to set up his combos to the head more, and really up the volume of the kicks too. If he can improve the variety of his shot selection pairing that with his speed advantage, I like Fiziev’s chances. I’m going to side with him ever so slightly in what surely seems poised to be a scrappy rematch.
Official Prediction: Rafael Fiziev via Unanimous Decision
Lightweight Bout
Jalin Turner (13) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Lee: Jalin Turner is looking to rebound from his last fight, a loss against Renato Moicano. Ignacio Bahamondes has secured back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses in his last two fights. Turner has showcased his devastating power in previous fights, but is 2-3 in last five fights. This fight will not make it to the judges’ scorecards given that both fighters are known for finishing fights. Bahamondes has a chance to continue his ascent and potentially break into the rankings with a victory. If Turner can find the winners’ circle maybe he can reestablish himself as a force in the lightweight division.
Official Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes via 3rd-Round Submission
Seth: Jalin Turner has notable losses to Dan Hooker, Renato Moicano, and Mateusz Gamrot. Turner was once highly touted in the lightweight division being one of the taller fighters in it. Though the results have been frustrating for Turner, he has proven that he is by no means out of his element at the pinnacle of the division, and gained valuable experience in those fights.
Bahamondes on the other hand is riding a wave of success coming off two back-to-back first-round finishes. Bahamondes at 6’3” will also take away turner’s height advantage for the first time in his career. Though Bahamondes has looked stellar in his last two fights, Turner’s experience and ability speak for themselves. His close fights in his last three losses are easy for me to overlook in this case.
Official Prediction: Jalin Turner via Decision
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Amanda Lemos (5) vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Marcos: Not an overly exciting matchup when you get two fighters who don’t really put punches together and march forward. I guess you can say Lemos is more of a striker, with takedown defense that leaves much to be desired. Lucindo will test that as she looks for the takedown entries throughout the fight. Lemos is the veteran of the two, with more UFC experience. She is also the stronger and faster Strawweight, which tends to be a deciding factor in a lot of those women’s matchups at 115 pounds. The toughness from both sides makes me think we see a very competitive three-round fight. I just think Lucindo’s deficiencies in her striking will cost her this fight on the scorecards.
Official Prediction: Amanda Lemos via Split Decision
Evan: I don’t really agree with Marcos’ sentiments that this isn’t an exciting matchup. It’s a pretty pivotal one in my opinion, especially for the contendership at 115 pounds. Where I do agree though is this really feels like it will come down to whether Lucindo can consistently secure takedowns or not. The 23-year-old is currently riding a quality four-fight winning streak and is surging a little. But she also only averages 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a mediocre 57% takedown accuracy rate. I also think Lemos’ experience, and superior power in the striking game will help her edge out a victory.
Official Prediction: Amanda Lemos via Split Decision
Lightweight Bout
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Lee: Veteran lightweight, King Green is set to face rising star Mauricio Ruffy in what should be an action-packed fight. Green will need to use his experience and quality striking against the younger and also less experienced Ruffy. Ruffy will need to stand up to Green’s relentless pressure while looking to use his dynamic striking and submission skills. With a win, Ruffy will be set up with bigger names in the division. If Green were to win, he could possibly re-enter the top-15 rankings. When both fighters have so much to gain and lose this makes for an ultra-competitive fight.
Official Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy via Split Decision
Seth: One thing I can say for sure is that this fight does not go the distance. On one hand, you have a notoriously entertaining fighter in Bobby Green who is allergic to boring fights, and not giving it his all inside the cage. On the other, you have a rising star, and unorthodox striker in Mauricio Ruffy. Ruffy, who loves to stand and strike, emulates a Conor McGregor-like fighting style and stance. It’s one of my favorite matchups on the card, and will surely be a fun fight for everyone to watch.
Official Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
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