UFC 314: Main Card Predictions
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UFC returns to the Kaseya Center in Miami for the fourth time with UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes. After the wild action of UFC 299 just a year ago, South Beach is ready for an encore. Alexander Volkanovski looks to reclaim his throne following another knockout loss, while Diego Lopes aims to make history as the sixth man to capture the UFC Featherweight Championship. With international stars, rising prospects, and high-stakes matchups, UFC 314 is shaping up to be a night to remember.
UFC Featherweight Championship
Alexander Volkanovski (1) vs. Diego Lopes (3)
Marcos: Volkanovski taking over a year off could see him return to peak form, which is bad news for Diego Lopes. I think the former champion will control the pace of the fight, attempting to avoid any close contact with Lopes and his grappling. Eventually however, I think Lopes will get a hold of Volkanovski and find his moment. The best way I can describe it is I think we see a fight very similar to Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega. Except this time, the aging legend will not escape the clasps of the submission specialist. It is a new era in the featherweight division.
Official Prediction: Diego Lopes via 4th-Round Submission
Evan: I agree with Marcos here. Volk taking a year off after consecutive KO losses to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, could be the refresh his career needed. But now at 36 years old, I’m skeptical the former featherweight kingpin will ever return to his old form. He’s definitely got the footwork, feints, offensive wrestling, and overall skills to give Lopes problems. However, I’ve got big questions about his durability, and he’s facing a guy in Diego who has offense literally everywhere. My heart is hoping the Aussie legend can pull it off. But, my head is telling me to go with the surging Brazilian contender. Between Lopes’ KO power, deadly ground game, and finishing instincts, I’m just not sure Volk will be able to withstand the offensive onslaught that is sure to come his way in Miami.
Official Prediction: Diego Lopes via 3rd-Round TKO or Submission
Lightweight Co-Main Event
Michael Chandler (7) vs. Paddy Pimblett (12)
Lee: The UFC 314 co-main event is a banger. Michael Chandler is one of the best first-round fighters in MMA. But, for some strange reason he seems to fade once the second round bell rings. Paddy Pimblett has to use his explosive wrestling to hopefully slow down Chandler’s striking game. Pimblett will need to fight at distance while using different faints to keep Chandler thinking. Chandler has a very aggressive fighting style. Pimblett is an above average counter striker, so I think he needs to be the aggressor. The longer the fight goes favors Pimblett, but can he nullify Chandler’s early aggression?
Official Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via Split Decision
Marcos: Michael Chandler proves with each outing that his ranking has been a bit overblown since his UFC arrival. While Paddy Pimblett is very much on the rise at the peak of his powers, Chandler may be the most dangerous striker to date for Paddy. But, Pimblett’s striking has improved significantly since the Jared Gordon fight. Chandler’s experience and toughness could factor in, but I think Pimblett is just the better overall fighter at this stage. The longer the fight goes, the less energy and explosion that Chandler will have to escape Pimblett’s grappling onslaught. I also don’t have much doubt that Chandler will find a way to lose this as he has before.
Official Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via 3rd-Round Submission
Featherweight Bout
Bryce Mitchell (13) vs. Jean Silva
Lee: Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva at UFC 314 should be an exciting encounter. Silva has won all four of his UFC victories via TKO while also winning two performance bonuses. Following a dominant TKO victory at UFC Fight Night 252, Silva called Mitchell out. Mitchell, one of the toughest competitors in the division, is known for his grappling and submission skills. So, Silva will look to keep this fight standing as he is the better striker. Can Silva’s striking keep Mitchell and his wrestling at bay?
Official Prediction: Jean Silva via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I’m not going to sit here and pretend like Bryce Mitchell deserves to even be competing with the UFC still. The way the promotion is using and cashing in on his antisemitic rant back in January is frankly disturbing, and disgusting. However, here we are and just judging Bryce as a fighter, he’s very solid. He’s clearly got the grappling edge against Silva as Lee pointed out. According to UFC Stats, Mitchell averages 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, but only has a 43% takedown accuracy rate. If he’s unable to secure and spam takedowns in this fight against Silva, he’s probably in for a long night. I will side with the Fighting Nerds product to stifle Mitchell’s grappling attack, and bludgeon him on the feet to the satisfaction of many fans. His creativity, physicality, and elusiveness in the striking game will be too much for Bryce to handle.
Official Prediction: Jean Silva via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Light Heavyweight Bout
Nikita Krylov (8) vs. Dominick Reyes (11)
Marcos: Reyes’ 82% takedown defense must hold up if he is to spoil Krylov’s takedown-heavy approach. Despite his shortcomings, Reyes still has damn good striking with the clear speed advantage in this bout. I would argue that Krylov is the most well-rounded light heavyweight in the division besides Ankalaev. It is quite difficult to be optimistic about Reyes these days, especially against one of the more underrated guys at 205. Although I can see a submission for the Ukrainian fighter, this may be a fight needed to shake off the rust after a 2-year layoff.
Official Prediction: Nikita Krylov via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This fight is sort of indicative of the current state of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. Outside of heavyweight, it’s arguably the worst in the promotion at the moment, and immensely lacks depth. In terms of the matchup itself, I don’t have much to add to what Marcos has already stated. He’s spot on with his assessment that this really comes down to whether Krylov’s grappling can overwhelm Reyes or not. Both guys are fairly well rounded, but have also been susceptible to getting finished in the past. The extended layoff does worry me for Nikita. But, I do think he’s the more versatile fighter of the two, and Reyes hasn’t looked impressive in years. I favor the Ukrainian contender to extend his winning streak against the former title challenger.
Official Prediction: Nikita Krylov via Unanimous Decision
Featherweight Bout
Yair Rodriguez (5) vs. Patricio Pitbull
Lee: Patricio “Pitbull” Friere has signed with the UFC and will make his highly anticipated debut against Yair Rodriguez at UFC 314. Freire predominantly competed at featherweight while with Bellator, but he also held the promotion’s lightweight title. Rodriguez has not competed since a February 2024 submission loss to Brian Ortega. In this clash of styles, can Yair use his outstanding kick game to counter Pitbull’s sharp boxing? I think we will see Pitbull incorporate a well-rounded gameplan by using his grappling in this matchup. Normally, I would go with the UFC vet, but…
Official Prediction: Patricio Pitbull via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: This is a fight and UFC debut I wish would have happened 3-5 years ago for Patricio Pitbull. Despite some losses, Yair Rodriguez is still in his prime. But, I don’t see the same for the Bellator legend. Both are effective strikers, with Pitbull having the edge in just about every other facet of the fight. Despite this, I just think Yair’s size and unorthodox movement will be a real problem for the 37-year-old vet. Pitbull’s grappling could hinder Rodriguez as Lee suggests. But, I think enough damage will be done on the feet for the Mexican-born fighter to claim a decision.
Official Prediction: Yair Rodriguez via Split Decision
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