UFC 324: Main Card Predictions
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UFC returns to Seattle with a card stacked from top to bottom, headlined by one of the most polarizing interim title fights in recent memory.
Whether fans love it, hate it, or simply can’t believe it’s happening, Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett is officially going down for the Interim UFC Lightweight Championship. Beyond the main event circus, the rest of the lineup delivers serious competitive intrigue.
We have title implications at bantamweight, heavyweight chaos written all over it, a high-level women’s flyweight chess match, and a potential firefight at featherweight.
We break down every main card fight on the stacked UFC 324 lineup:
Interim Lightweight Championship
Justin Gaethje (4) vs. Paddy Pimblett (5)
Lee: This one comes down to whoever can impose their preferred range: Gaethje on the feet, Pimblett on the mat. If this stays a striking battle, I favor Gaethje all day. But if Paddy can drag him down, the advantage shifts. Gaethje has shown strong takedown defense in the past. Yet, he’s also been submitted in title fights by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.
Pimblett insists he can’t be knocked out. Gaethje’s power will put that belief to the test. For Paddy, the challenge is showing enough willingness to exchange on the feet to set up his takedowns. I’m leaning toward Pimblett here.
Official Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via 4th-Round Submission
Evan: The backlash to the matchmaking here is more than justified, as excluding Arman Tsarukyan from an interim title fight was ridiculous. However, the matchup itself between Gaethje and Pimblett is a very good, interesting fight that should deliver fully. I don’t really believe though that this is as black and white of a striker versus grappler battle as Lee is suggesting.
Whether you like Paddy’s personality or think he doesn’t deserve this title shot, the reality is he has greatly improved his game over the last few years. The Englishman has physically really filled out his frame now at 155 pounds, is more calculated with his striking behind the leg kicks, and now has a viciousness with his top game offense on the mat. He’s also undeniably the much superior grappler here of the two. Pimblett is just an exceptional back taker and scrambler.
I don’t feel that Justin has great takedown defense either. According to UFC Stats, he currently sports a 68% takedown defense rate. That’s a pretty mediocre number overall and I don’t expect Paddy to even try to straight up wrestle with him. The main issue for Gaethje will be his lack of jiu-jitsu and positional grappling skills that will lead to his downfall.
On the other hand, Justin’s striking is very potent and his offensive firepower can’t be overlooked. The combination of his power, devastating leg kicks, and boxing skills could be extremely problematic for Pimblett. That alone makes Gaethje a live dog in this one. With that being said, I do believe Paddy is going to have more success on the feet than people expect. I could see him hurting Justin multiple times.
Ultimately, I think he creates some sort of scramble or back exposure that eventually will end with him battering and finishing Gaethje on the ground.
Official Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via 3rd-Round TKO or Submission
Bantamweight Bout
Sean O’Malley (3) vs. Song Yadong (5)
Lee: This is a favorable matchup for Sean O’Malley and most likely with a win sets up a fight with Petr Yan for the bantamweight title. Song Yadong, while being a top 5 bantamweight, has lost to the last two quality fighters he faced.
Yadong has power in his hands, but little to no ground game which plays into the strengths of O’Malley. In a standup battle, I give the edge to O’Malley and his quick and powerful strikes. Although O’Malley shouldn’t be threatened with being taken down, this will not be an easy fight for the former bantamweight champ.
I think Yadong could surprise O’Malley with some form of grappling that would make this fight compelling, but I don’t see that happening.
Official Prediction: Sean O’Malley via Unanimous Decision
Evan: While I think Lee is somewhat underestimating and overlooking the real leveling up Yadong has made with his skills recently, I’m largely on the same page with him here. Song is a compact, powerful striker and has pretty underrated hand speed as well.
But he’s facing a fighter in O’Malley who is also deadly on the feet and a rangier, more accurate striker than he is. I believe Sean’s array of feints, footwork, length, and timing are going to be problematic for the Chinese contender to solve. That’s not to say Yadong doesn’t pose a legitimate threat to the former bantamweight champion.
There’s a scenario where he could definitely hurt or even out-slug O’Malley. I just feel Sean will control the range though and manage distance behind his 5” reach advantage well enough, to secure a decision victory.
Official Prediction: Sean O’Malley via Unanimous Decision
Heavyweight Bout
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (5) vs. Derrick Lewis (8)
Lee: This should be a slug fest as soon as they lock the cage door. The hard-hitting Derrick Lewis will mix it up with the fast-charging Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Derrick Lewis blitzed Tallison Teixeira in just 35 seconds back in July. Meanwhile, Cortes-Acosta made five walks to the Octagon in 2025 and notched back-to-back first-round, bonus-earning stoppages.
Lewis carries the type of one-punch power that makes every second with him dangerous, and he’ll look to derail the Dominican’s momentum. Cortes-Acosta relies on volume, while Lewis prefers patience and timing with his striking.
Both fighters keep finishing fights in the first round. So, I expect them to throw haymakers early and often until someone gets caught.
Official Prediction: Derrick Lewis via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: This fight is a coin flip for me. I still don’t really find Cortes-Acosta’s skill set all that impressive in any way, but you can’t argue with the recent results he’s had. Waldo is 7-1 in his last eight Octagon appearances and is coming off back-to-back first round KO wins. Like the guy has just found ways to win, despite having a limited game.
Against Lewis, I do believe he will get steamrolled early, or survive Derrick’s offensive onslaught and take over afterwards. To me there’s really no in between in this one. I’ll go ahead and take a flier on Salsa Boy to get the job done. But I’m not overly confident in picking either guy honestly or have a strong feeling on the outcome.
Official Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Natalia Silva (2) vs. Rose Namajunas (6)
Lee: This Flyweight clash between Natalia Silva and Rose Namajunas is a scintillating matchup. Silva has displayed her speed, cardio, and timely striking during her seven fight win streak in the UFC. While Namajunas has built her legacy on high fight IQ, creativity, and technical excellence.
“Thug Rose” will need to control distance and slow the fight down to negate Silva’s volume and pressure. Silva wins if she keeps the pace high and makes the fight messy. Rose wins if the fight becomes a technical clash where her experience will shine. Tough fight to pick.
Official Prediction: Natalia Silva via Split Decision
Evan: So I feel the complete inverse about this matchup from a stylistic and tactical standpoint, in comparison to Lee. In my opinion, Silva’s game isn’t really predicated on fighting at a high pace or being messy. She thrives fighting from a distance, controlling range behind her kicking arsenal, timing, and counter punching. Her skills are based more in precision than chaos.
So if this fight turns into a technical clash, I actually think it favors her style more. If anyone will benefit from mucking this one up, it will be Namajunas. Rose will have to cut the cage off, utilize the clinch, keep the exchanges in the pocket, and create grappling scrambles to have any sort of chance to pull off the upset. I’m just not sure she’s got the hand speed or wrestling ability to force Natalia into that type of scrap.
I’ll roll with the Brazilian contender to outpoint and outclass her here.
Official Prediction: Natalia Silva via Unanimous Decision
Featherweight Bout
Arnold Allen (6) vs. Jean Silva (10)
Lee: Arnold Allen returns to action for the first time in nearly 18 months facing off against Jean Silva. In this pivotal featherweight matchup, Silva will look to rebound from his first promotional loss in his most recent bout against Diego Lopes.
Allen will look to use his tight guard, head movement, and footwork to slip punches while looking to counter with his own strikes. Silva’s 93.8% finish rate (15 of 16 wins) represents an elite fight-ending ability. Allen will try to keep Silva off balance with his southpaw jab while Silva will look to frustrate Allen with his pressure. Can Allen’s defense outclass Silva’s offense?
Official Prediction: Jean Silva via Split Decision
Evan: There’s a strong case that this could end up being the best fight on the card, especially from an entertainment standpoint. Diego Lopes exposed Silva in their last outing.
The recklessness and sort of wild man persona he tends to fight with, caught up with him against a fighter in Diego who could match his offensive firepower. Those things may come back to haunt the Fighting Nerds product again here, facing a very cerebral and calculated foe in Allen. However, as Lee pointed out the year and a half long layoff for Arnold is somewhat concerning.
I think he’s definitely the more versatile and skilled fighter of the two, but taking on a berserker and juggernaut like Jean off of such an extended absence doesn’t seem super ideal. I see this turning into a bit of a brawling dogfight, which will favor Silva in my eyes.
Official Prediction: Jean Silva via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
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