UFC Vegas 50: Rookie Betting Advice
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I’m not a professional gambler, and really not a gambler at all. With that said, I feel I have a good grasp of the sport. I wouldn’t advise anyone to follow these bets, as they are some I won’t even be placing. We all know that MMA betting is a tough task, so here are some of the best bets for the UFC card this Saturday…
I’m also using lines from Betonline, but you could find even better odds from other books.
I’ve followed the career of Tafon Nchukwi for a long time. As I do think he’s super talented, I’m all over Azamat Murzakanov here. Nchukwi is solely a striker and although Murzakanov could take him down, he’ll more than likely stand and trade. Murzakanov is better suited for middleweight but the good thing is Nchukwi isn’t the fastest or hardest hitter.
Nchukwi prides himself more on shot placement and precision. He’s a bit slower and volume isn’t the best. Murzakanov can exploit that with much better movement and knockout power. There are concerns about the gas tank of Murzakanov, but Nchukwi isn’t the fighter to push the pace to tire him out. He was at a better price but even now at -175 I’m confident in Murzakanov.
I’m also high on Javid Basharat where I’ve been calling his name to get into the UFC for a while. He is fighting a tough challenge in Trevin Jones, but I like Basharat. One of my biggest concerns of Basharat is his hands stay low and his chin is up. That’s very dangerous against a power puncher like Jones. With that said, if you just have to count on landing that one punch, I don’t like those chances. The two fights he won in the UFC, he was losing until he got the finish. Basharat outside of power has the advantage grappling, striking, kickboxing, and wrestling. Basharat isn’t really tested, so that could be a factor. At -130 for someone I have a lot of praise for I’m taking that bet.
Alex Pereira at -175 I’ll take. Bruno Silva is an ultra dangerous guy, but he needs to wrestle. The problem is he likes to strike even in fights he has a clear path to victory on the mat. He might come out with a wrestling-heavy attack but watching him the last few fights there is no indication he will. I have no doubt Silva could knockout but that’s just landing a heavy punch. With Striking/kickboxing, Pereira has a massive advantage. He has some of the best striking in the division and Silva is a bit chinny. If Silva got rocked by Jordan Wright imagine what Pereira will do.
It’s hard to bet on Khalil Rountree and Karl Roberson because they never show up as the same fighter previously. If both was on their A-game, Rountree is the clear favorite to me. Even though Roberson has the kickboxing background Rountree has better kicks. Power is on the side of Rountree as well. Roberson does have a better ground game, but doesn’t have the wrestling to match. Even on their worst days, I see more qualities in Rountree. I wouldn’t lay a lot on it, but Rountree is +105 so it’s worth looking at maybe.
That’s the only bets I really like, but for some of the prop hunters out there – here are the ones I like:
- Aldrich/Robertson FGTD at -115
- Drew Dober in Round 3 at +900
- Javid Basharat by Submission at +350
- Damon Jackson by Points at +200
- Yadong Song by Points at +260
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