UFC 330: Main Card Predictions
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The UFC main card features four compelling matchups, from a championship clash between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry to a highly competitive strawweight title fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson.
With contrasting styles, veteran experience, rising contenders, and plenty of finishing potential, we break down each matchup ahead of UFC 330.
Welterweight Championship
Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Ian Garry (1)
Lee: Islam Makhachev will look to use his superior grappling and rapidly improving striking against Ian Machado Garry’s movement and sharp striking. Garry is a legitimate threat to end Islam’s title reign due to his height, 4-inch reach advantage and his ability to fight off his back.
This might be the first fight we see where Islam will need to take chances to secure takedowns and deploy his strikes due to Garry’s physical advantages. The fight will come down to Garry’s defense versus Islam’s patience. Islam will need to be patient but steady with his pressure. But, the challenger will look to sidestep his pressure with his defense and constant movement.
Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via 4th-Round Submission
Evan: This is one of the most fascinating matchups in the sport currently. I’m not sure that will translate into it being an exciting fight, but the layers to this one are very interesting. While I wouldn’t expect a ton of action from these two, the tactical and strategical aspects will be intriguing.
It’s pretty clear that Ian Garry is one of the more polarizing personas today. His somewhat try hard and cringey personality has seemingly become off-putting to most fans. However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s an extremely talented and game competitor.
The Irishman is an elite defensive fighter, who’s entire style is based on neutralizing, frustrating, and stymieing his opponents. He’s a master of this and while it may not be the most entertaining thing to watch, it’s without question effective.
Garry has the tools to really muck this up and make things difficult for Makhachev. Especially if he’s able to stay off the fence, out of the clinch, and turn this into a striking battle at range. His elusiveness, footwork, and ability to slow things to a crawl, could be problematic for Islam.
With that being said, Ian’s lack of offensive firepower I believe will limit him greatly here and ultimately be his downfall. As good as he is defensively, his lack of dynamic weapons on the other end is an enormous problem against a fighter of Islam’s caliber. Not to mention that the Dagestani champion is also an incredible defensive technician himself.
Between his brilliant decision making and knack for never making mistakes, Islam just doesn’t give you many things to capitalize on. I don’t think that bodes well for Ian in this bout. But, I do expect him to make a good account of himself though and for this to be a competitive scrap.
I feel it’s going to look a bit similar to Garry’s loss against Shavkat Rakhmonov back at UFC 310 in December 2024. However, I’m taking Makhachev to get the job done here, and continue his illustrious run. His fight IQ and diverse arsenal should be enough to secure the victory over a worthy challenger in Ian.
Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Mackenzie Dern (c) vs. Gillian Robertson (5)
Lee: This fight offers few physical advantages for either fighter, with both women being elite on the mat. Gillian Robertson is known to start slow. But, against Mackenzie Dern, she needs to be the aggressor from the opening bell.
The deeper the fight goes, the more it should favor Dern, as Robertson has never fought into the fourth round. Dern has the better striking, while Robertson has the more tested chin. For Dern to win, she needs to control the grappling and secure top position, while Robertson will need to win the striking exchanges.
Official Prediction: Gillian Robertson via 2nd-Round Submission
Evan: I know many people are currently down on women’s MMA, but I personally really love this fight. These two are so evenly matched in every facet of the game and both are flat out dogs too.
Regardless of the outcome, I genuinely believe this will be an entertaining scrap. Whether it’s the grappling scrambles or exchanges on the feet, I think Dern and Robertson are going to provide fans with plenty to enjoy. I’m optimistic this could be a possible FOTY contender.
If Gillian is to become the new champ at 115 pounds, she needs to grimy the grappling up and make Mackenzie respect her power on the feet. The more she can utilize the clinch, force Dern to wrestle rather than scramble, and potentially hurt her standing, the better her chances will be.
The thing about Mackenzie though, is she’s as tough as a two-dollar steak and is extremely comfortable under duress when it comes to brawling. Additionally, if Robertson does decide to engage with the scrambling, Dern’s BJJ pedigree and slickness is undeniable.
I’m going to favor Mackenzie’s durability, power, and grappling acumen to get the job done.
Official Prediction: Mackenzie Dern via Unanimous Decision
Middleweight Bout
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Lee: Mansur Abdul-Malik brings his 4-fight win streak against Dustin Stoltzfus. Abdul-Malik will deploy his combination striking to help set up his grappling. He will also consistently apply forward pressure to secure those takedowns.
Stoltzfus will counter with kicks to the body and try to force Abdul-Malik to fight in a box to negate his 4-inch reach advantage. The vet will not get flustered if he is taken down due to his strong grappling and submission game.
Abdul-Malik should keep this fight standing as Stoltzfus reminds me a little of Demian Maia. When opponents can time and stifle his takedown attempts, what is his Plan B?
Official Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: I gotta be honest, this is a UFC Apex-level fight. Dustin Stoltzfus is 3-7 in his 10 octagon appearances. Mansur Abdul-Malik should have the power, length, athleticism, and wrestling chops to win this one fairly easily. If he’s unable to beat a fighter as flawed as Stoltzfus, that would be a very concerning sign for Abdul-Malik’s potential going forward.
Official Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik via 1st or 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Lightweight Bout
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics
Lee: Edson Barboza is a UFC veteran with notable knockout power and significant edge in experience. He will try to turn back the hands of time when he faces Esteban Ribovics, 10 years his junior. Both fighters are looking to rebound from losses and stay relevant in the Lightweight division.
Barboza will keep the fight at distance by using his 6-inch reach advantage and vaunted leg kicks. Ribovics will counter the vet with his constant pressure and volume striking.
This isn’t the best matchmaking, but I understand the premise of this fight. Ribovics is looking to secure a spot in the rankings while Barboza is trying to show he’s still got it.
Official Prediction: Esteban Ribovics via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I’ve got the utmost respect for Edson Barboza. He’s one of the greatest KO artists in the history of the lightweight division, who fought nothing but war hammers. His highlight reel is second to none. However, the 40 year old Barboza is 2-5 in his last seven fights and continues to take a metric ton of damage.
According to UFC Stats, Barboza absorbs 4.68 significant strikes per minute. He’s extremely hittable and now in the twilight of his career, his durability is a huge concern.
While Ribovics is certainly a flawed fighter himself, he should have the style and mainly power to expose Edson’s chin. I expect the Argentine slugger to finish Barboza in this one. And I hope the Brazilian legend retires sooner rather than later.
Official Prediction: Esteban Ribovics via 2nd or 3rd-Round KO/TKO
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