UFC 315: Main Card Predictions
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The UFC returns to Montreal for the eighth time on May 10th, bringing UFC 315 to one of Canada’s most passionate fight cities. This marks the promotion’s 35th event in Canada, spanning 11 different cities—an enduring testament to the country’s importance to Dana White and his team.
While most of the Canadian talent is featured on the prelims, the main card promises fireworks. Belal Muhammad will make his first title defense against rising contender Jack Della Maddalena, with a stacked undercard full of star power ensuring a memorable night for fight fans.
UFC Welterweight Championship
Belal Muhammad (c) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (5)
Lee: JDM, who is riding a 7-fight win streak is known for his elite striking skills and improved grappling. He will need to mix things up a lot in this fight to beat the champ. Belal Muhammad has faced criticism for his style. Many call him boring, but his versatile skill set has given him more ways to win fights. Muhammad is a tough nut to crack due to his unconventional style, which makes him a hard opponent to prepare for.
Official Prediction: Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I’m aligned with Lee on this one. I think Della Maddalena is an incredibly versatile striker who has a good variety of attacks, and great finishing instincts. According to UFC Stats, JDM averages a whopping 6.74 significant strikes landed per minute at an impressive 53% accuracy clip. His mixture of power and economical shot selection is some of the best in the welterweight division currently. However, both Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns took the Aussie down a combined ten times in their respective fights, while controlling him for nearly twelve minutes. That doesn’t feel like a good sign heading into a matchup against someone with Muhammad’s grappling pedigree.
For whatever reasons, Belal continues to be one of the most underrated and overlooked fighters in the entire sport. His array of takedowns, suffocating control, sound boxing, good kicking game, and relentless gas tank make him a tough out for anyone. I expect the Palestinian champion to overwhelm JDM, primarily with his wrestling against the cage en route to retaining his title.
Official Prediction: Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision
Women’s Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Manon Fiorot (2)
Marcos: Valentina’s development in her wrestling techniques during challenging situations has significantly benefited the latter part of her career. However, the champion faces a formidable opponent in the big and strong Manon Fiorot. Fiorot’s striking power poses a legitimate threat to Valentina’s own striking capabilities. The French fighter’s heavy hands and effective takedown defense position her as a slight favorite in this matchup. Valentina no longer appears to be significantly ahead of her division at age 37. The advancements made by her competitors raise concerns regarding what could be her most challenging title defense to date. Fiorot is likely to control the striking exchanges and neutralize the wrestling, leading her to victory.
Official Prediction: Manon Fiorot via Split Decision
Lee: The challenger is riding a seven-fight streak and has a nice blend of striking and grappling which should lead to a very interesting matchup. Coming off a thrilling trilogy, Shevchenko is looking to solidify her legacy as one of the greatest fighters in MMA. But to do that, she will need to use her experience and her technical approach to exploit any mistakes that Fiorot makes inside the Octagon. This fight will come down to coaching and which fighter makes the best adjustments during the fight.
Official Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko via Split Decision
Bantamweight Bout
José Aldo (11) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (14)
Evan: I’ve never been all that impressed with Aiemann Zahabi. While I respect he’s currently on a five-fight winning streak and beat quality names in that span, he’s faced nobody even remotely close to Jose Aldo’s level. He’s also only a year younger than the former featherweight king. It seems he’s getting this matchup based more on him being from Montreal. The card needed a hometown product on it, rather than being any indication Zahabi is some future title contender.
Despite now being in the latter portion of his career, Aldo has been able to stay competitive and relevant against the upper echelon of the bantamweight division. He’s 4-2 in his last six fights. His only two losses came from Merab Dvalishvili and a surging contender in Mario Bautista, which was controversial too. On paper, I feel Aldo should have superior skills in every facet of the game. Whether this fight remains on the feet, takes place in the clinch, or goes to the mat, I favor the King of Rio.
Official Prediction: Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Aiemann Zahabi has not faced an opponent of Jose Aldo’s caliber. However, it’s anticipated that he, along with his highly intelligent brother Firas, will develop a robust game plan for Aldo. Zahabi’s speed and technique in the bantamweight division raise concerns, particularly against someone as agile as the former champion. Additionally, Zahabi’s striking can occasionally appear unrefined, which may present opportunities for Jose Aldo during stand-up exchanges. While Aldo can sometimes be neutralized by less skilled opponents with the right strategy, he must try to avoid such situations against the strategic minds at Tristar Gym. Ultimately, Zahabi may lack the requisite skills to defeat the UFC Hall of Famer.
Official Prediction: Jose Aldo via Split Decision
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Alexa Grasso (1) vs. Natalia Silva (5)
Lee: Alexa Grasso looks to rebound in her first fight since losing the UFC women’s flyweight title. She faces one of the top up-and-comers in Natalia Silva. The winner of this fight could be in line for a shot at the title. Top 5 matchups are tough to predict being that fighters this high in the rankings are very skilled. Silva has great footwork to go with her superb striking which has led to her shooting up the rankings. Grasso will look to ground Silva with her top notch grappling. Another fight where experience hopes to trump youth…
Official Prediction: Natalia Silva via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: I think Lee’s spot on when he says this fight is tough to predict because both of these ladies are extremely skilled and evenly matched. This feels like a crossroads moment for Alexa Grasso. She’s coming off frankly one of the worst title fight performances in recent memory in her trilogy bout against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC Noche last year. She was taken down eight times and controlled for 16 minutes in that defeat.
Natalia Silva on the other hand is rising up the flyweight ranks, and is riding a 12-fight winning streak where she hasn’t lost since March 2018. I could definitely see her footwork, speed, and kicking arsenal giving Grasso real issues. But I’m going to hesitantly pick the former champ and bet on her experience in this matchup. I believe Alexa will control the range by keeping Natalia in the pocket where her boxing skills can take over, and mix in some takedowns to edge out a razor thin victory in Canada.
Official Prediction: Alexa Grasso via Split Decision
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