UFC 317: Main Card Predictions
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UFC 317 is shaping up to be one of the most electrifying cards of the year, with high-stakes matchups and championship gold on the line. From rising stars to seasoned veterans, the main card is loaded with fighters eager to make a statement. You can buy UFC 317 on PPV on ESPN+.
With two title fights headlining the event and several pivotal bouts filling out the lineup, every contest could shift the landscape of its division. We analyze the key storylines, stylistic matchups, and potential outcomes ahead of the big night:
UFC Lightweight Championship
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira (2)
Lee: Ilia Topuria’s move to lightweight has generated major buzz. He now faces Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC title. Both men are elite finishers with well-rounded skill sets. Topuria holds the edge in striking, but Oliveira’s improved stand-up and dangerous ground game make him a serious threat. If this hits the mat, Topuria could be in trouble. Look for Oliveira to use his 5-inch reach advantage to keep distance. But, he can’t afford to take damage like he has in past fights—Topuria has fight-ending power. It’s a tough one to call, but I’m going with…
Official Prediction: Charles Oliveira via Split Decision
Evan: I do believe this is an incredible matchup. However, I’m going to have to disagree with Lee on this one. Oliveira might be the rangier fighter of the two. But, he doesn’t have a style where he wants to sit on the outside and operate from a distance. He sort of meets fire with fire and does his best work striking within the pocket, or inside of the clinch.
Fighting at that range seems like it will only play into Topuria’s strengths. His boxing, power, angles, and combination punching are just flat out devastating. I also think some people might be sleeping on his grappling ability. According to UFC Stats, Ilia has an incredible 92% takedown defense rate, and is a legitimate BJJ black belt himself. While Charles can give him problems with his size, scrambles on the mat, and clinch game… I’m not sure he’s got the offensive wrestling or style to consistently overwhelm the former featherweight king in that way. Oliveira is as a dangerous threat for Topuria to deal with. Ultimately though, his willingness to take damage while pursuing a firefight will be his downfall here.
Official Prediction: Ilia Topuria via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
UFC Flyweight Championship
Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Kai Kara-France (4)
Lee: Alexandre Pantoja’s impressive run as champion has solidified his status as the king of the division. Kara-France has one-punch knockout power and will have the advantage if the fight is contested mostly on the feet. The champ is no slouch on the feet. But, he should look to ground Kara-France and add a sixth submission win to his resume. This fight has the chance to steal the show, as flyweights are some of the fastest and most skilled fighters in the UFC.
Official Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja via 3rd-Round Submission
Marcos: Pantoja’s exceptional grappling skills, relentless pressure, and impressive durability provide him with a significant advantage. His ability to blend strikes with takedowns is likely to overwhelm Kara-France, who tends to have a low output and limited offensive grappling. Both of which feed into Pantoja’s game plan. The betting odds of -250, along with Pantoja’s seven-fight winning streak that includes victories over Moreno, Royval, and Asakura, reinforce this prediction. Kara-France’s best chance will arise in the early rounds, where he can leverage his rare flyweight knockout power. Despite the New Zealander’s 88% takedown defense, Pantoja’s dominant ground game is expected to lead him to a finish eventually.
Official Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja via 4th-Round Submission
Lightweight Bout
Beneil Dariush (9) vs. Renato Moicano (10)
Marcos: Dariush’s technical striking, grappling counters, and experience provide him with an advantage here. His ability to blend striking and grappling, similar to Pantoja, while evading Moicano’s submissions could result in a decision victory. On the other hand, if Moicano utilizes his wrestling skills and initiates scrambles, his submission threat could shift the momentum in his favor. Considering the durability of both fighters, it is probable that the match will go the distance. That is, unless there’s a submission or if Dariush’s chin is compromised again.
Official Prediction: Beneil Dariush via Majority Decision
Evan: It’s nice to see this matchup rebooked. Especially after the promotion sort of screwed Dariush out of a fight given what happened with UFC 311’s main event. On paper, these two are about as evenly matched as you can get. The biggest question surrounding this fight is how compromised is Beneil at this point in his career?
Now 36 years old, coming off a 18 month layoff, and back-to-back KO losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira, it’s hard not to have doubts. Especially because Moicano is on fire right now, who is 4-1 in his last five fights. Moicano’s lone defeat comes from a short notice bout against Islam Makhachev back in January. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Brazilian contender batter Dariush on the feet or get superior positioning on the ground, where his top game offense is suffocating. With that being said, I’m going to take a flyer on Beneil here. I think this fight looks similar to Moicano’s loss to RDA, where he was severely out-wrestled. I believe Dariush can secure several takedowns, control Renato for a majority of the fight, and land heavier shots on the feet to eke out a decision.
Official Prediction: Beneil Dariush via Split Decision
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Royval (1) vs. Joshua Van (10)
Marcos: Royval’s diverse skill set and experience position him as the favorite. But, Van’s power and hunger could lead to an upset. Van’s calculated striking, combined with effective takedown defense, makes him a live underdog. However, Royval’s capability to blend chaotic striking with submission attempts is likely to take its toll on Van, whose submission defense has not been tested at this level. Initially, Van was favored when the matchup was announced, but the betting lines have since shifted. This suggests what I perceive to be an unpredictable, yet thrilling contest. While it’s a close call, I anticipate that the veteran will take advantage of the 23-year-old’s limited preparation as he steps in on short notice.
Official Prediction: Brandon Royval via 3rd-Round Submission
Evan: For me personally, this is the best fight on the card outside of the two headliners. There’s no way that this scrap isn’t exciting given how they both matchup stylistically. Joshua Van is currently ascending right now as one of the most exciting young contenders in the entire sport. According to UFC Stats, he lands a ridiculous 8.2 significant strikes per minute. The potency of his boxing game and combination punching can’t be understated.
If he’s able to keep the fight within that pocket range, there’s no doubt he can give Brandon Royval some serious issues. However, I’m with Marcos in that I believe Brandon’s versatility and experience might be the deciding factor here. Plus, for as good as Van is offensively, he also absorbs 5.26 significant strikes per minute so he does get hit quite often. I’m expecting a closely competitive bout between these two all action flyweights regardless of the outcome. But I favor Royval’s rangy striking, clinch offense, and scrambles to ultimately give him the edge.
Official Prediction: Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision
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