UFC 319: Main Card Predictions
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The United Center is gearing up for UFC’s return to the Windy City on August 16th for UFC 319. Headlining the stacked card is a middleweight title fight between champion Dricus Du Plessis and the relentless Khamzat Chimaev, a showdown that could reshape the division.
The main card is loaded with action, including Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico and Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page, two matchups that promise fireworks from start to finish. With Chicago’s passionate fight fans and rich combat sports history, UFC 319 is primed to deliver another unforgettable night.
We unpack every main card fight, dishing out predictions and sharp insights on who’ll rise to the occasion on fight night:
Middleweight Championship
Dricus Du Plessis (c) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (3)
Lee: Khamzat Chimaev’s road to this title shot has been slowed by injuries and other health issues. Du Plessis will thrive on his forward pressure hoping to overwhelm the challenger. Chimaev, not known as a willing striker, will need to show he can exchange with the champion. He is known for his supreme wrestling and will look to takedown Du Plesis down to force him to fight off his back, which Dricus is good at. The determining factor in this fight will be Chimaev’s cardio as he is not an active fighter and rarely fights into the third round.
Official Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev via 3rd-Round Submission
Marcos: Although Chimaev has proven he can dominate every opponent, he might have finally found a worthy rival. This matchup features a versatile fighter going up against an exceptional wrestling talent. Chimaev is expected to close the distance quickly and pursue takedowns, as Lee has suggested. Du Plessis will likely aim to turn this into a gritty, drawn-out battle, reminiscent of Chimaev vs. Burns. Two important questions arise: Can the champion withstand Khamzat’s initial onslaught? Can Chimaev keep up his pressure as the fight progresses? I believe the champion will manage to endure the early challenges and secure enough points on the scorecards by the end.
Official Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision
Featherweight Bout
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico
Lee: Aaron Pico is probably having the toughest debut fight in recent memory. Pico, who had been training for the grappling-heavy Movsar Evloev, now must pivot to the striking heavy Murphy. He has to close the distance and force Murphy to fight in a phone booth. Murphy’s takedown defense will need to be high level in this fight as Pico has an upper-echelon ground game. The winner of this fight could jump Evloev and receive the next shot at the title.
Official Prediction: Lerone Murphy via Split Decision
Evan: I’m on the opposite side of this one. I’ve been on the Lerone Murphy train long before a majority of fans have. I believe he presents a tough challenge for Aaron Pico in his promotional debut. This is an easier matchup for him compared to Movsar Evloev. Murphy is undoubtedly a more versatile and talented striker than Evloev. His ability to control the range on the feet, slow the pace down, and elusiveness will also be tricky for Pico to figure out.
However, the threat level the undefeated Englishman poses to Aaron is being overblown by many people. Murphy is the same guy who was severely hurt and almost finished by Dan Ige in their fight back at UFC 308. Additionally, he was taken down by Gabriel Santos, Josh Emmett, and Makwan Amirkhani a combined 14 times in his three scraps against them.
I see Pico being able to out grapple Murphy for the most part, and utilize effective cage cutting to close the distance. I also expect him to rock Lerone on the feet, landing the superior shots within the pocket, and beating him up against the cage inside of the clinch. I’ll take the Bellator product to get the victory here.
Official Prediction: Aaron Pico via Unanimous Decision
Welterweight Bout
Geoff Neal (11) vs. Carlos Prates (12)
Evan: If you’re a fan of striking, this fight is definitely your cup of tea. Neal and Prates will face one another in a pivotal crossroads matchup for both, in terms of remaining relevant in the contendership queue at 170 pounds. The pair are KO artists that have different styles on the feet. Geoff is more impactful as a pocket boxer inside, whereas Carlos does his best work striking from the outside at that kickboxing range.
Whoever is able to win that distance battle and control the range, should be the deciding factor here. Ultimately though, I favor Prates to snipe Neal from the outside behind his length, jab, kicks, and landing impactful counter shots. I see him constantly catching Geoff coming in, while he tries to close the distance.
Official Prediction: Carlos Prates via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: I completely agree with Evan about this being an exciting striking matchup for fans. I also share his view that the distance game will be a crucial factor in this fight. If Neal can close the gap and utilize his boxing skills, he definitely has a chance. However, I believe Prates’ reach and unpredictable Muay Thai style will give him the edge at a distance.
Many people see this as a closely contested battle, but I think the striking difference isn’t as narrow as some suggest. Nonetheless, Neal has the power, movement, and counter techniques to keep Prates on his toes. Carlos Prates is eager to make a statement following his loss to Ian Garry. So, I anticipate it will be a quick and successful night for the Brazilian.
Official Prediction: Carlos Prates via 1st-Round KO
Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier (8) vs. Michael Page
Lee: Michael ‘Venom’ Page is moving up to middleweight to take on the hard-hitting Jared Cannonier. Page is known for his elusive movement and unorthodox striking which has led to some highlight-reel knockouts. Cannonier will look to pressure Page hoping to disrupt his unusual fighting rhythm. Both fighters are not known for their grappling which should lean on this being a standup battle.
It will be the power and output of Cannonier against the unique and dynamic striking of Page. Can Cannonier figure out the MVP puzzle?
Official Prediction: Jared Cannonier via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: Get ready for another exciting chess match featuring two distinct striking styles. Cannonier’s power and pressure give him a solid opportunity, especially if he can cut off the cage. Meanwhile, MVP’s speed, reach, and defense also provide him with a genuine chance to accumulate points on the cards.
I lean towards MVP’s exceptional counters and footwork to outmaneuver the UFC veteran in a highly technical striking contest. Nevertheless, Cannonier’s knockout power will always keep him in the game. Even at ages 41 and 38, both fighters are still capable of delivering top-notch performances for the fans.
Official Prediction: Michael Page via Unanimous Decision
Flyweight Bout
Tim Elliott (11) vs. Kai Asakura (15)
Marcos: Unfortunately for Asakura, I believe his grappling defense was exposed against Pantoja. Therefore it would be wise for Elliot to use his wrestling-heavy style and spam takedowns. Because if the fight stays standing, Elliott may not have much of a chance with his measly 44% striking accuracy. Expect Tim Elliot to maintain a fast pace, while Kai Asakura will try to stay out of wrestling range.
Even though Asakura’s takedown defense held up in Rizin, I believe he will face significant challenges against the skilled wrestlers in the UFC flyweight division. Askura’s fatigue from the takedown attempts could even create some openings for Elliott’s mediocre striking. However, Elliot should still remain vigilant for the possibility of a highlight-reel knockout from the Japanese fighter.
Official Prediction: Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I don’t have a strong feeling about this fight, other than it’s a super high quality PPV opener. Both of these guys are big flyweights, but Elliott is clearly the more well rounded fighter of the two. He should have a fairly big advantage in the grappling department. There’s a good chance he just takes Asakura down repeatedly, controls him, and grinds this one out.
With that being said, I’ll take a flier on Kai in this matchup. I believe he’s got the power to really hurt Tim, and chip away at his reliable durability. Especially with the way he can attack the body and unleash devastating knees out of nowhere. That could negate some of Elliot’s takedown ability.
I think the Japanese contenders dynamic striking, and underrated defensive wrestling, could be the difference here.
Official Prediction: Kai Asakura via Unanimous Decision
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