UFC 323: Main Card Predictions
Read Time:8 Minute, 25 Second
It’s fight week, and the bantamweight and flyweight divisions take center stage. Merab Dvalishvili looks to make history as he attempts his fourth title defense of 2025 when he runs it back with former titleholder Petr Yan in a high-stakes championship rematch.
The co-main event also brings championship implications. Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja puts his belt on the line against surging contender Joshua Van in a matchup. Elsewhere on the card, top-tier names like Brandon Moreno, Tatsuro Taira, Henry Cejudo, Payton Talbott, Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov round out a stacked top of the billing.
We break down every main card fight on the stacked UFC 323 lineup:
Bantamweight Championship
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan (3)
Lee: Merab is set for his fourth title defense of 2025, something no UFC champion has ever accomplished in a single calendar year. He’ll run it back with former champion Petr Yan. In their first meeting, Merab dominated by mixing early takedown attempts with heavy leg kicks en route to a clear unanimous decision.
Since then, Merab has only improved, while Yan has looked sharp during his current three-fight streak. Yan’s switch-stance striking usually throws opponents off, but Merab’s cardio and relentless pace often neutralize that advantage.
Yan landed 72% of his strikes against Deiveson Figueiredo, but Merab’s volume is on another level. He threw 399 strikes and attempted 37 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen in his most recent outing. But can Yan’s precision striking slow Merab’s nonstop pressure?
Official Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili via 4th-Round Submission
Evan: I’m just to the point where I’m not picking against Merab Dvalishvili until further notice. He’s on the cusp of having arguably the best year a fighter has had since Jon Jones’ run in 2011. I get that Petr Yan wasn’t 100% in their first meeting back in March 2023, claiming he fought Dvalishvili with only one arm due to a torn shoulder muscle. However, Merab apparently also was batting a right hand injury himself in that fight, where he couldn’t use it in training two weeks prior to the matchup.
Ultimately though, Dvalishvili outlanded Yan 147-75 in significant strikes and attempted a staggering 49 takedowns in that outing. He thoroughly dominated the former champion. Now do I expect Petr to put up a more competitive effort here in the rematch? Absolutely I do.
With that being said, unless Yan seriously hurts Dvalishvili, I don’t see a great path for him to be victorious here. He’s not going to outwork or outgrapple the Georgian star. The improvements Merab has made, combined with his relentless pace, grappling, and output should drown Petr once again.
Official Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision
Flyweight Championship
Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van (1)
Lee: I’m not sure Joshua Van has earned this title shot. But, he may learn there are levels to this sport when he meets flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja just secured his fourth title defense and extended his win streak to eight. Van has climbed the rankings quickly despite only nine UFC fights.
For Van to have a chance, he’ll need to prove he can handle the ground game. Pantoja’s top control and constant forward pressure have made him look nearly unbeatable. Van carries real power, but the champion has never been finished in his career.
Official Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja via 3rd-Round Submission
Evan: I don’t really understand the sentiment that Van doesn’t deserve this title shot. Especially given that he’s currently on a five-fight winning streak and Pantoja has beaten four of the other current top 10 ranked contenders in the division. This is an exciting, fresh matchup that flyweight frankly needs.
I believe Josh has the right approach and style to beat someone like Alexandre. You’ve got to meet fire with fire against the Brazilian champion. Between his insane 8.86 significant strikes landed per minute and 81% takedown defense rate, Van seems to have the tools to be successful here. Behind his beautiful boxing and combination punching, he tends to be more comfortable the grimier the fight gets.
On the other hand, Pantoja’s doggedness, grittiness, and ruggedness is as battle tested as it comes in the sport. Plus, the Burmese scrapper does tend to get hit a ton which could end up being very problematic for his chances to dethrone Alexandre. The champ also just has an array of options and is so crafty at setting up takedown opportunities. If he creates any sort of back exposure, Josh will be in massive trouble.
I do think though that this will be an absolute slugfest, trench warfare style of fight. I’m going to take a flier on Van. I feel we might see a real leveling up of his game and a Cruz-Garbrandt-esque upset in this one.
Official Prediction: Joshua Van via Unanimous Decision
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Moreno (2) vs. Tatsuro Taira (5)
Lee: In this highly anticipated matchup between two skilled fighters, Brandon Moreno will look to use his striking to neutralize Tatsuro Taira’s grappling. For Taira to succeed, he must show enough striking threat to set up his wrestling. His averages of 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.7 submission attempts are impressive, but his low output of 2.87 significant strikes per minute remains a concern.
Moreno has proven difficult to take down, boasting 64 percent takedown defense. This should help him keep the fight standing where he is most comfortable. The question is whether his experience will be too much for the rising contender.
Official Prediction: Brandon Moreno via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I’m completely on the same page as Lee here. This really comes down to how well Taira can set up the takedowns and scramble opportunities. It should be a great test to see if the 25-year-old contender really learned from the loss he suffered to Brandon Royval in their absolute war last year. If he’s really able to blend his striking and grappling together, allowing them to flow into one another then Tatsuro can give Moreno all kinds of issues.
On the other hand, I’ve got to side with Moreno as well in this one. He’s as game of a fighter as there is in the sport. I believe his well rounded skillset will nullify much of the problems Taira tries to throw at him. The Mexican former flyweight king will slightly outclass the talented Japanese contender.
Official Prediction: Brandon Moreno via Unanimous Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Henry Cejudo (10) vs. Payton Talbott
Lee: Henry Cejudo returns while riding a three-fight losing streak to face Payton Talbott, who has won four of his five UFC bouts. Cejudo still brings championship experience and elite-level grappling. Talbott will aim to showcase his powerful striking against the former double champ.
One advantage for Talbott is that this matchup is scheduled for only three rounds. He has never been in deep waters, but Cejudo can still make 15 minutes uncomfortable for anyone. Talbott should look to maximize his 6.5-inch reach advantage and his stance switching to keep Cejudo at range. This matchup may not seem flashy, but once the cage door closes, it has the potential to be a technical masterpiece.
Official Prediction: Payton Talbott via Split Decision
Evan: The matchmaking here is somewhat confusing to me, with this supposedly being Cejudo’s retirement fight. It sort of feels like the promotion is trying to cash him out and feed him to a younger prospect that they believe in. This one is pretty simple though from a stylistic standpoint.
Henry’s going to look to consistently take Payton down and force him into scrambles. If he’s unable to do that, Talbott’s athleticism, speed, length, and dynamic striking should eventually take over in this matchup. However, I’m still not sure how much faith I have in the 27-year-old’s defensive wrestling ability. Although, he did show some major improvements in that department in his last fight against Felipe Lima at UFC 317 in June.
I’m just not sure what to expect or what type of version we’re getting of Cejudo now that he’s 38 years old and given this is his expected last Octagon appearance. I’m going to pick Talbott, but I honestly don’t have a confident lean in this bout.
Official Prediction: Payton Talbott via Unanimous Decision
Light Heavyweight Bout
Jan Blachowicz (5) vs. Bogdan Guskov (11)
Lee: Just like Cejudo, another former champion is returning. Jan Blachowicz is back, which is the good news. The bad news is he enters on a two-fight losing streak. His opponent, Bogdan Guskov, comes in with momentum from a four-fight winning streak, all by finish.
Blachowicz has faced the best of the best and wants to prove he can still compete at the highest level. Guskov has shown he can finish fights on the feet and on the ground, including the nasty guillotine he secured at UFC 311 against Billy Elekana. Will Guskov break into the light heavyweight top ten by taking out the former champ?
Official Prediction: Bogdan Guskov via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: I’m going to be frank with you, I’ve got no real strong analysis for this matchup. I haven’t been all that impressed with Guskov. His striking is pretty awkward and he really hasn’t beaten anyone of quality yet during his UFC run. But he clearly is a good finisher though who has real KO power and a sound submission game.
Blachowicz meanwhile is 1-3-1 in his last five fights and now at 42 years old, is clearly in the twilight of his career. I genuinely have no idea what to expect from this fight. But, I’ll side with the Polish former champion given he’s the more proven commodity.
Official Prediction: Jan Blachowicz via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Happy
33 %
Sad
0 %
Excited
67 %
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
0 %
Surprise
0 %
About Post Author
