Full UFC White House Betting Guide: Best Bets for a Historic Night in MMA
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UFC Freedom 250 is set to make history when it brings MMA to the White House grounds. In what will be one of the most unique nights in all of sports, 14 fighters will look to make their mark on an event that could become the defining moment in the UFC’s history.
At the top, we’ll see Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje for the undisputed lightweight title. Before that, we’ll see the heavyweight title on the line when Alex Pereira takes on Ciryl Gane.
Two of the biggest fights in the sport will be supported by former champions, established contenders, and new names looking to steal the spotlight. With a card this deep, value can be found from the opening bout to the main event.
Here’s a full card betting guide for those looking to place bets:
Diego Lopes (-155) vs. Steve Garcia (+130)
Pick: Diego Lopes ML -155
A major intangible will be the focus on a couple of matchups this week. That will be how fighter’s manage the pressure of performing under the bright lights. Ultimately, styles make fights. However, it would be unwise to ignore how a fighter could react to this setting.
Enter Diego Lopes. Lopes has fought for the 135 belt twice and has competed at marque events, UFC 300 and UFC 306 at the Vegas Sphere. He’s also been on numerous major cards before, all while Steve Garcia‘s resume has been exclusive to the crowd-less Meta Apex.
Stylistically, I see why this is a closely lined fight. Garcia’s power makes him a real threat after Lopes has seen mixed results in fights that were purely striking. Lopes was out struck by the current champ, Alexander Volkanovski, and he ate hard shots by power striker Jean Silva before landing a spinning back fist.
Still, I see Lopes out-dogging Garcia in what could be a fire-fight from the get-go. Garcia has been knocked down five times in his UFC career. One of those saw him go completely out against Maheshate. Although Lopes has two TKO losses of his own, his chin has looked elite since joining the UFC and he has plenty of his own power to bring into a potential brawl.
With the favorite having the big stage experience and durability advantages, I will side with him in what could be the most violent fight of the night. I’ll take Lopes to eat a shot or two before landing his own for the win.
Bo Nickal (-345) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+275)
Pick: Bo Nickal by TKO/KO +200
The weakest spot on the card serves as the continuation of the Bo Nickal push. We’re now on year three of Nickal getting the build up treatment after the accomplished amateur wrestler went pro in 2022. He’ll be looking to add to his resume against the underdog, Kyle Daukaus.
Daukaus returned to the UFC last year after being let go in 2023. He finished both Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert in under one minute. That now makes his third stoppage win in a row, all coming within a minute and half.
In Daukaus’ first run, we seen him flatlined twice and knocked down in another. Even with improvements, I don’t think his striking has come far enough to expect him to fully rely on it against a wrestler of Nickal’s caliber. Additionally, the underdog lack of octagon time could come back to haunt him on a stage this big. Just three minutes of fight time in the last two years could show in 90-degree weather against a prime UFC talent.
This feels like another matchup for Nickal to gain striking experience since Daukaus is a grappler. Nickal received the same treatment in his last fight against Rodolfo Vieira, where he landed a vicious head kick TKO at Madison Square Garden. After seeing the books favoring this one to end under 2.5 rounds, I’ll take the moderate favorite to add another TKO to his record.
Mauricio Ruffy (-750) vs. Michael Chandler (+525)
Pick: Michael Chandler ML +525
The Brazlian knockout artist Mauricio Ruffy has earned the honor of being the largest favorite on the card against the veteran, Michael Chandler.
Ruffy has finished twelve of his thirteen wins by TKO. Most notably, he landed a spinning heel kick against Bobby Green in what was the unanimous pick for knockout of the year in 2025. His next TKO came against Rafael Fiziev earlier this year, leading to the showcase treatment on the White House Lawn.
Sandwiched in between those recent TKOs was a concerning performance for Ruffy. In France against Benoit Saint-Denis, Ruffy was completely neutralized after being taken down multiple times. It provided a clear path for future opponents after Ruffy looked overwhelmed with the wrestling pressure.
At 40-years-old, I see why Chandler walks in as the big underdog. Still, this is a D1 All-American wrestler we’re talking about. After scoring four takedowns against fellow grappler Paddy Pimblett, I don’t see why he can’t at least secure one against Ruffy. A moment that could completely change this fight and make that +525 look like value.
I’ll side with the American to pull off the upset of the night.
Josh Hokit (-425) vs. Derrick Lewis (+/325)
Pick: Josh Hokit Wins in Round 1 or 2 -175
A late addition to the card, Josh Hokit and Derrick Lewis will represent the heavyweights at the White House. Hokit is just 9 weeks removed from his epic fight against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 327, while Lewis fought earlier this year at UFC 324.
In that fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Lewis looked completely out of form. He was finished in the second round where it looked like he had nothing left to give. That was his sixth loss in his last ten and he’s now another year older at 41.
With that said, the result of this fight is completely up to Hokit. He either stands and risks the chance of being knocked out or wrestles and finishes Lewis quickly. Although Hokit may be crazy, he isn’t stupid. So I find it hard to believe he gives Lewis that punchers chance that Lewis has cashed in on in numerous matchups.
I don’t think Lewis had the cardio or skill to complete with Hokit’s wrestling. Once Hokit gets this fight to the ground it will only be a matter of time before we see Lewis flat, taking damage before the ref steps in. I like Hokit inside of two.
Sean O’Malley (-410) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+320)
Pick: Aiemann Zahabi +7.5 -135
The Suga Show is on the road again when the former champ, Sean O’Malley, continues his push for another shot at the belt. In his way will be the streaking Aiemann Zahabi, who is also looking to throw his name into the contender pool.
It’s been a strange road for Zahabi. Scarred by inactivity and a two-fight losing streak right after debuting, the Canadian has now won seven fights in a row. He added legit names to the streak recently, defeating Marlon Chito Vera and Jose Aldo by decisions. The winning streak has brought the biggest fight of his career, in what could be a statement win for the 38-year-old.
Everyone seems to be on O’Malley here. I agree he’s the rightful favorite, but this matchup could be tricky for him in his current state. O’Malley looked hesitant in his close fight against Song Yadong earlier this year. Not only was his volume low, his takedown defense issues continued to plague him.
Zahabi hasn’t shown much interest in wrestling in the past. However, it is worth mentioning that he spends time with the legend Georges St-Pierre and is a coach himself. I’d imagine shooting on O’Malley will be apart of the game plan in an attempt to get the favorite thinking, as Zahabi has a great fight IQ.
Regardless on if the wrestling pressure works, both fighters are reactionary strikers. This could play out to be a disappointing fight as a result, so I don’t see why Zahabi can’t have moments of competing. +7.5 means he has to win one round on just one scorecard. The underdog will have to deal with a major speed disadvantage, but his power and fight IQ could make for a close fight.
Alex Pereira (-110) vs. Ciryl Gane (-110)
Pick: Alex Pereira ML -110
Big fight feel in the co-main. After championship runs in middleweight and light heavyweight, Alex Pereira will look to add a third belt when he takes on long-time heavyweight contender, Ciryl Gane.
A true pick em’ on most books and it’s easy to see why. Both are elite strikers with world class athleticism. They’ve also had plenty of big fights on their resume.
With that said, Gane hasn’t had a great record in these spots. He’s now 1-2 with one no contest in championship fights, while Pereira is 6-2 when fighting for the belt. That speaks to that intangible I brought up earlier. Advantage, Pereira.
I’m also not buying that Gane can turn into a wrestler after seeing him looked gassed against Alexander Volkov. His only fight where he landed takedowns and spent time on the mat. Gane could walk into a takedown or two in an extended fight, but if Pereira is able to make him work, Gane will quickly abandon that game plan.
Since I’m expecting a kickboxing matchup for the most part, it’s hard to pass on the best striker in the sport at a pick em’ price. It’ll be interesting to see how he deals with his gas tank with the extra pounds. But when the cage closes and Pereira is staring across, I wouldn’t want to have money on the other side. Pereira by early TKO is the pick.
Ilia Topuria (-500) vs. Justin Gaethje (+380)
Pick: Ilia Topuria by TKO -167
Believe it or not, it’s difficult to breakdown greatness in MMA. Every once in awhile a fighter comes through and looks untouchable. No matter how much discourse goes on during fight weeks, the result is the same. It creates a situation where it almost feels unnecessary to break down their fights. You simply want to say, “he/she is going to win” and move on.
Ilia Topuria has entered this status. He’s 17-0 with wins over legendary fighters. Most of those being dominant knockout wins. He’s simply as complete as any fighter can be, making it hard to see how anyone can upset him.
Because of Topuria’s greatness, I only ask myself what Justin Gaethje‘s downfall will be. I zero in on his mileage. Of course, “The Highlight” can strike with anyone, but the nature of his fights at 37-years-old will eventually catch up to him. He’s been TKO’d three times thus far and I don’t see how he survives against the cleanest puncher he’s ever faced.
Gaethje will have to catch Topuria first. Possible, but the line is not wide enough to get behind it. Grab Topuria by TKO wherever you find the best price. -167 is available on BetRivers and feel free to play it to -200.
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