Full UFC Vegas 118 Betting Guide: Best Plus-Money Underdogs to Bet This Weekend

UFC Vegas 118 marks the return to the Apex this Saturday, headlined by former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad and surging contender Gabriel Bonfim.

While the main event carries major implications for the future of the 170-pound division, the rest of the card features fighters looking to make their place in their respective classes.

Closely lined fights and opportune matchups have led to plenty of plus money bets to consider this week.

Here’s are the best bets for the 12-fight card:

Prelims

Ketlen Souza (-300) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (+240)

Pick: Ketlen Souza by Decision +100

Not a great fight to start the night, so extracting plus money is the goal in the opener.

As much as Ariane Carnelossi’s limited striking holds her back, she doesn’t allow it to stop her forward pressure. Her ultimate goal is to use her strength and wrestling. But, a 3-3 UFC record shows she still hasn’t been able to put everything together to get past decent names in the weight class.

Ketelen Souza‘s striking being miles ahead has led to this heavy favorite number. However, she’s uncomfortable on her back foot and continues to show cardio issues. She’s started slow in fights recently to preserve her gas tank, so a longer fight is expected between the Brazilians.

With a fight expected to hit the cards to open UFC Vegas 118, getting plus money on the better striker is a no-brainer. I’ll take Souza to earn her second straight decision win at a plus money price.

Jeisla Chaves (-380) vs. Yuneisy Duben (+300)

Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds +105

Only 14 fights total between these two. As a result, there’s no strong leans. But, I do like the under knowing these two may look to throw down.

If Yuneisy Duben has anything going for her, it’s her willingness to throw hard. It’s the sole reason why she was signed off the Contender Series after a highlight KO win one minute in as a +500 underdog. With that said, her aggressiveness was the reason why she was finished in her debut, where she ate a head kick from the up-and-coming Carli Judice in just under two minutes.

Jeisla Chaves‘ style also leans toward violence. Her 1-2 down the middle was her go-to in an exciting fight on the Contender Series last year. A back-and-forth fight that saw her come back after being knocked down early.

Since both look to throw, plus Duben failing to pass two minutes in her showings, take plus money on what could be a surprisingly fun fight on the prelims.

Jordan Leavitt (+170) vs. Joanderson Brito (-205)

Pick: Jordan Leavitt +3.5 -110

Jordan Leavitt ruined parlays earlier this year when he dominated prospect Yadier Del Valle in the first two rounds of his decision win. Down a weight class, Leavitt looked great, converting 4 of 8 takedown attempts for almost 8 minutes of control time.

I think he has a solid chance of replicating that performance against Joanderson Brito. The Brazilian was being built up as a powerhouse before a two-fight losing streak paused his hype. Most notably, he was dominated by Pat Sabatini, giving up an alarming 13 minutes of control time out of the 15.

There’s no denying Brito has power, but his overhands are looping and sometimes predictable. I always viewed the favorite more of a grappler since he’s gone to the mat in almost all of his fights. With that in mind, I see this fight going where Leavitt wants it at some point.

Since the dog has yet to be stopped by strikes, I think there’s value in him at least winning one round and making it to the final horn. At this price, give me Leavitt to cover.

Chelsea Chandler (-122) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+102)

Pick: Priscila Cachoeira +102

The best fighter out of Stockton (wink, wink) returns on the UFC Vegas 118 undercard. Chelsea Chandler will be the favorite for the first time in her UFC career against the “Zombie Girl”, Priscila Cachoeira.

I agree that this fight is close to a pick em’, but I had Cachoeira as the slight favorite. Anyone that knows these two knows that confidence is not a thing in this matchup. I just favor the striking edge Cachoeira has, even though Chandler’s pressure and grinding style could lead to an ugly, hard to judge fight.

At current prices, this is a dog or pass spot. But my best advice is to wait till fight day to see if the market moves heavily toward either. If that’s the case, take the other side in a fight that could come down to split scorecards.

Bruno Silva (-135) vs. Edgar Chairez (+114)

Pick: Edgar Chairez ML +114

Good fight at flyweight in our second straight closely lined bout. I’ll once again take the plus money on the dog, Edgar Chairez.

The Mexican’s Achilles heel has been his takedown defense, so I see why he’s not favored against a grappler. However, Chairez is a big body for flyweight at 5’7″ and he will have 5 inches of reach on Silva. His size and length could be used as a major advantage because of his high-level boxing.

It’s also worth noting that he’s only lost twice in the UFC since joining in 2023. Those were to the current champion and the recent number one contender, Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira.

Silva is off a good win, but it’s been 2 years since he’s had a favored number next to his name. He packs power, but he’s also taken some legit damage over the past year. I’ll take the younger and bigger Chairez to steal moments during this fight for a decision win.

Marcus McGhee (-500) vs. John Yannis (+380)

Pick: Marcus McGhee by Submission +400

An injury to Jacub Wiklacz led to John Yannis stepping in on the featured prelim for UFC Vegas 118. Yannis will be one of the largest dogs on the card when he takes on the 10-2, Marcus McGhee.

Seems like no one is giving Yannis a chance in this fight. Something I slightly disagree with since the matchup looks to be good for him. At least to this point, McGhee has shown little interest in a ground fight, so Yannis will also be in his world. However, McGhee will be the best fighter Yannis has faced by far.

Yannis is far from a prospect with potential, as he’s been finished both during his time as an amateur and on the regionals during his pro run. Most notably, half of his pro losses have come by sub and his UFC debut was a first-round tap.

McGhee and the MMA Lab team definitely know this going in, so I don’t see him giving Yannis a puncher’s chance. If the opening is there, look for the heavy favorite to debut some grappling as he continues to evolve.

Main Card

Iwo Baraniewski (-380) vs. Junior Tafa (+300)

Pick: Iwo Baraniewski by Submission +450

Iwo Baraniewski looks to be a legit name to watch for at 205. His recent performances suggest he’ll be a knockout artist, but in this matchup it’s important to note his Judo background. His base is rooted in takedowns and grappling, as he competed in both Judo and grappling tournaments before turning to MMA.

Three of Taffa’s losses have come by sub. His takedown defense hasn’t improved and his two losses since moving to light heavyweight have resulted in him tapping. With his strength being his kickboxing, I don’t see how Baraniewski doesn’t explore his ground game as soon as it presents itself.

Baraniewski by sub is great value for the -380 favorite inside the smaller Apex cage this week. Don’t over think this spot.

Matt Schnell (+490) vs. Alessandro Costa (-675)

Pick: Alessandro Costa by Finish -475 for parlays

The widest lined fight on this UFC Vegas 118 card comes with great reason. Matt Schnell is now 2-5 in his last 7 where he was finished in all 5 losses. He’s now been stopped in 9 of 10 and I see the same happening against Alessandro Costa.

Costa has had mixed results since joining the UFC in 2022, but he’s flashed potential throughout. He can both hit with power and grapple at a high level. The favorite is off a great performance earlier this year after he connected with a left hook liver shot to notch his 6th TKO win.

The Brazilian also has 6 sub wins on his record, so since Schnell can be taken out either way. I’d rather not guess the method and just parlay Costa by finish with another solid piece on the card. Event hough Costa is on short notice, I agree with this line and fully expect him to dominate.

Bryce Mitchell (-142) vs. Santiago Luna (+120)

Pick: Santiago Luna ML +120

I’m going to bet on the future here.

Santiago Luna is a Mexican prospect who came from a wrestling background. Instead of pursing collegiate wrestling, he decided to jump to MMA. What’s surprising is his boxing has looked crisp thus far. He has solid combinations and a left hook was the start of his TKO win in his debut last year.

Here, he’ll have to show his defensive wrestling is UFC-level. Bryce Mitchell is high-level grappler who can rack up as much control time as you let him. Nine of his wins have come by sub and the others have been dominant top control decision wins. Striking wise, he’s limited to kicks. But his goal is to close the gap, get his arms around you, then to the mat.

I think this fight comes down to cardio. Luna will not only have to defend the takedowns, but he’ll have to do it for 15 minutes if he can’t get Mitchell out of there early. If Luna’s wrestling background allows him to defend early, I see his boxing being the reason he wins minutes. And from there, he can fight with a lead.

Fares Ziam (-310) vs. Tom Nolan (+250)

Pick: Tom Nolan +7.5 -115

This is a big fight that could swing the career trajectory for both the winner and loser. Winner of six in a row, Fares Ziam now has contender status on his mind. The 10-1 Tom Nolan will be looking for the best win of his young career thus far.

Considering both have balanced skillets, I walked into this fight thinking we’d get a closely lined fight. Although I favored Ziam, I was a taken back at how wide the line was. Nolan is a legit striker who can throw anything with power. He’s also good in the clinch where he can land elbows, knees, and his legit frame for the class makes for a tough matchup for anyone.

The same could be said for Ziam as he’s a long striker with KO upside. I think his late round experience is the difference in this matchup, but I still think this line discredits Nolan’s ceiling.

Nolan +7.5 means he has to survive and take one round on just one judge’s score card. If his chin holds up, I can see him creating big moments to make this close. I’ll take him to do just that at a playable price.

Brendan Allen (-205) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+170)

Pick: Brendan Allen by Submission or Decision -115

Not too long ago Edmen Shahbazyan was labeled a busted prospect after multiple failed attempts against step-ups in competition. Now on a three-fight win streak, he’ll look to notch the most notable win of his career against Brendan Allen.

Allen also had dealt with a glass ceiling in his time with the UFC. Allen had his own run of taking out lesser guys before being stifled by top names. However, he has built some steam again after a dominant win against Reinier de Ridder. A main event fight he took on short notice.

Here, I don’t see how Allen has a problem, seeing that Shahbazyan can be taken down and has cardio concerns. Out of his seven UFC fights that made it out the first round, Shahbazyan has lost five of them. Four of those saw him get finished, so I’ll take Allen to get the late sub or decision win.

Gabriel Bonfim (+102) vs. Belal Muhammad (-122)

Pick: Over 4.5 Rounds -118

You’re either going to remember the name or say hello to the future in the main event.

Former champ, Belal Muhammad is on fight two since losing his belt early last year. He then dropped a decision to possible number-one contender, Ian Machado Garry last November, resulting in the first time the Chicago native has lost two fights in a row.

His next test will come in the form of the rising Gabriel Bonfim. The 19-1 Brazilian finished his first five-round main event within two last time out. He landed a knee inside the clinch, leading to Randy Brown going out. Bonfim’s 4th win a row and 6th inside the UFC.

In Bonfim’s only blemish, he gassed out against a pressure fighter, Nicholas Dalby. That will be the story here since it has been in every matchup since the cardio failure. Other than that, he’s looked to be a complete product. His boxing is improved and his ground game has shown to be elite, with 13 of his 19 wins coming by sub.

I agree that this fight should be closely lined with Muhammad’s experience making him the favorite. Because Muhammad is the favorite, I’ll stay away from a winner and just take this fight to go late seeing that 75% of Muhammad’s wins have come by decision and both have shown to be durable. It’s the only edge I see in what could be a highly competitive fight for 25 minutes.

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