Full UFC Belgrade Betting Guide: Best Bets for UFC’s Trip to Serbia
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The UFC makes its first ever trip to Serbia this Saturday. The promotion brings a 14-fight card headlined by the Serbia’s own, Uros Medic when he takes on the UFC veteran Daniel Rodriguez.
Thirteen fights lead up the main-event that feature debuting prospects, a former champion, and fighters looking for fresh starts in new weight classes.
Here’s a fight-by-fight breakdown, complete with favorite picks, props, and best bets for the card.
Prelims
Nina Milošević (-425) vs. Hailey Cowan (+325)
Pick: Nina Milošević ML for Parlays
It’s not often I suggest parlaying a heavy chalk favorite making their debut in the women’s bantamweight division. When I do, it usually means I have little to no belief in the other side.
That’s exactly the case in this matchup between Nina Milošević and Hailey Cowan. Cowan is now 0-3 with the UFC where she’s been finished twice.
As a former gymnast, Cowan checks the athletic box needed to compete, but she falls short in the skill department. Cowan’s boxing stance is square and she’s limited to single strikes. The underdog has no kick game and her wrestling is dependent on if she can outmuscle her opponents.
That may be possible at times against the smaller Milošević. However, the favorite has displayed a BJJ game that should keep her out of trouble for long periods of time, and she could threaten anywhere on the ground knowing Cowan has been subbed in three of her five losses.
Since Milošević is also a competent striker, I think she avoids Cowan’s only path to victory to lead on damage for a clear decision win.
Mateusz Rębecki (-525) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+390)
Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -145
The line on Mateusz Rębecki has swelled. The Polish fighter began the week in the -300 range, but money continues to come in as most are looking to fade Kyle Prepolec.
Prepolec came in on extreme short notice to face Benoit Saint-Denis on a PPV main card spot last year. He did have two bookings for the company years back, but as his 18-10 record suggests, he’s only being extended with the company as a favor to saving them when they were in a bind.
I see why bettors are fading Prepolec since he doesn’t seem to be UFC level. My only worry is that Rębecki continues to show no improvements with his cardio. The favorite had future contender potential before he gassed out in his first UFC loss — a third round stoppage against Diego Ferreira.
Since then, his output continues to drop as fights extend, including his most recent loss to Grant Dawson that saw him subbed with just fifteen seconds left in round three.
Knowing Rębecki could be reduced to a fraction of himself the longer this goes, I’d stay away from a winner and take the over at current prices. Prepolec lasted past this against Sanit-Denis and again when matched with heavy hitter Drew Dober.
I see him doing the same as Rebecki may start to manage his gas tank more carefully going forward.
Bogdan Grad (-200) vs. Dennis Buzukja (+165)
Pick: Dennis Buzukja ML +165
I’m not high on either, so this is a simple dog or pass spot for me.
Both Bogdan Grad and Dennis Buzukja have poor striking defense and worrisome durability. We seen Grad get knocked unconscious by Luke Riley last year, and Buzukja is already on the wrong side for knockouts of the 2026 year when he was floored by Márcio Barbosa this past April.
Knowing one shot from either could end the fight, I’ll take plus money on Buzukja since he does have fast hands and could counter Grad’s wrestling pressure.
Mark Vologdin (+165) vs. Borislav Nikolić (-200)
Pick: Mark Vologdin ML +165
I bet Mark Vologdin in his debut fight against a tough John Castañeda. A fight where the already bigger John Castañeda requested a move up in weight, and then illegally struck Vologdin below the belt, leading to the fight resulting in a majority draw.
Admittedly, Vologdin continued to show his faults as a smaller 135er. He absorbs a ton of damage, and his small size has resulted in fighters being able to push forward and dictate the pace. However, I still believe Vologdin has a great skill-set to build on at just 26-years-old. He’s a diverse striker who can land power shots, and his sambo background means he can occasionally get to his wrestling if the opportunity presents itself.
Borislav Nikolić looks to be a better matchup for him. Nikolić isn’t as physically imposing as Castañeda and the favorite can be countered. Vologdin will have to keep up with Nikolić’s volume, but I see Vologdin being able to use his footwork to stay out of dangerous spots, leading to him landing the cleaner and more impactful strikes that could steal rounds. He’s definitely worth a shot at dog money.
Oban Elliott (+280) vs. Michael Oliveira (-360)
Pick: Michael Oliveira by TKO -135
This line may feel wide at first glance seeing that Oban Elliott has been around for a couple years and has fought tough opponents. However, Michael Oliveira looks to be a scary prospect inside the welterweight division.
Oliveira is 9-0 with eight of those wins coming by TKO. He’s a long, patient kickboxer who has fight finishing power. The favorite displayed just that in his Contender Series win, a round two TKO that lead to him earning his UFC contract.
The Brazilian’s ground game should be tested here against Elliott. Elliott is a competent grappler and will for sure be shooting if he can get past the long reach of Oliveira. If Elliott doesn’t drag this to the ground, I don’t think he survives Oliveira’s power seeing that Elliott was dropped in his last fight and has suffered two losses by TKO.
Oliveira’s patience should do him good against Elliott. I expect him to get the TKO win before the final horn.
Ľudovít Klein (-220) vs. Tofiq Musayev (+180)
Pick: Ľudovít Klein ML for Parlays
Ľudovít Klein has been a bread winner for me over the last couple years. I was able to successfully fade him in his 2025 loss against Mateusz Gamrot, but Klein has cashed for us during a 7-1-1 streak that goes back to 2021.
This week he gets Azerbaijan’s Tofiq Musayev. Musayev spent time with RIZIN and Bellator before signing on for UFC’s trip to his home country in 2025. He’s now 1-1 inside the UFC, with his first win coming earlier this year against Ignacio Bahamondes.
I’m not completely writing off Musayev. He does have dangerous power and he’s a competent wrestler, but I simply don’t think he’s on Klein’s level. Klein’s mix of striking, wrestling, and high fight IQ should result in a comfortable decision win against the the lower-tier Musayev if the underdog doesn’t end this in the first round.
Main Card
Vlasto Čepo (-340) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+270)
Pick: Vlasto Čepo by TKO -210
I’ll admit that Vlasto Čepo doesn’t look to be anything special. It’s not hard to see that the Serbian’s win path is mostly tied to a finish and all of his wins being stoppages is proof of that.
Here, it looks like the home crowd is getting a spot to cheer for their guy. I say that because I don’t think Gilbert Urbina has much left to give to this sport. He’s now 1-3 inside the UFC, 7-4 overall, and he’s been knocked out in three of his last five.
It’s also a bad sign that he continues to jump from welterweight to middleweight. The former TUF contestant is clearly looking for answers to get his career going. But, one win in the last five years means the writing is already on the wall.
Urbina will have to get his wrestling going against Čepo. If he doesn’t, I don’t think his chin holds up seeing that he’s been getting knocked out out in a weight class below. Čepo’s aggression means we’ll definitely see that tested. So, I like the play on the favorite to get this done by TKO.
Play it straight or parlay it with another prop on the card.
Marcin Tybura (+270) vs. Aleksandar Rakić (-340)
Pick: Aleksandar Rakić -3.5 -170
Aleksandar Rakic makes the jump up to heavyweight after a 1-4 record in his last five at light-heavyweight. His first test is the recent gate-keeper of the class, Marcin Tybura, who is now on year ten with the UFC.
Tybura has turned away two new-comers to the heavyweight ranks, Mick Parkin and Jhonata Diniz. However, his two recent fights were losses to Tyrell Fortune and Ante Delija. Most thought he dropped that fight to Parkin as well. So, his last clear wins in the last two years have come against opponents that could be taken advantage of on the mat.
Dragging fights to the ground may be his only path these days. At 40-years-old, Tybura continues to look sluggish with his movement and has almost no speed with anything he throws. Most notably, his decline has looked more apparent with each fight that goes by. So it’s fair to expect that we could see an even worse version of him on Saturday.
I understand the hesitation to back Rakic at these prices due to durability concerns and past injuries. Those are concerns we will bring up at a later date because this matchup feels perfect for his style of staying out the outside, using his speed to score and win minutes, and maybe he catches Tybura with something big that’ll lead to a finish.
Rakic should build as the fight goes longer for a clear decision or late finish to make the home crowd happy. Take the alternate -3.5 spread on Draft Kings, which covers a finish or 30-27 victory on just one scorecard.
Jan Błachowicz (+250) vs. Navajo Stirling (-310)
Pick: Fight to be Won by Unanimous Decision -105
I’ll fess up. I fully went into the co-main this week expecting to take the underdog in some capacity. When Navajo Stirling was announced as the step-in to take on former champion Jan Blachowicz, I was expecting a very wide line favoring the young Australian.
After review, I do feel that this fight is properly lined seeing that Blachowicz is now declining at age 43. In his last fight against Bogdan Guskov, he was dropped in the second round. Then he was controlled on that mat after, which is a bad sign for an aging fighter that’s known to be durable.
He still brings in a strategic striking game plan to his fights. But, the lack of speed and volume will make for an uphill climb against the prime Stirling.
A key to watch for in this fight will be Blachowicz’s calf kicks. If he can do damage to Striling’s lead leg early, this will change the complexion of the fight, especially with Stirling in on short notice.
However, Stirling comes from the City Kickboxing Camp and Blachowicz’s calf kicks are no secret. I expect the favorite to be ready to deal with them, and eventually take the decision win just by being the busier fighter. Similar to Blachowicz’s fight with Stirling’s teammate, Carlos Ulberg.
Since I feel the fight is properly lined, I’ll avoid a money line, and take the Draft Kings prop on this fight to have a clear winner on the cards.
Uroš Medić (-425) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+325)
Pick: Uros Medic by TKO -220
A year and a half ago, no one would’ve believed these two would headline a UFC card. You’d have looked at me like I belonged in a padded room.
Speaking of padded rooms… Daniel Rodriguez recently made headlines after being jailed in Mexico for marijuana possession.
The arrest came after one of his most notable wins in his career, when he defeated Kevin Holland by decision in a back-and-forth fight filled with big moments. Released in April, he’ll try to regain his momentum in this main event booking against the dangerous Uros Medic.
It’s a home game for Medic, which is why he’ll be the last fighter to walk out this Saturday. The Serbian is red-hot after his highlight TKO against Geoff Neal earlier this year. That knockout made for his 11th out of 13 total wins. He hasn’t seen a second round in almost three years.
I’ll leave it there with Medic because it paints the picture of this matchup. He either finishes Rodriguez early or this fight looks interesting late. When I say interesting, I don’t mean it in a good way. If this fight goes past 10 minutes, it’ll come down to whoever gasses first. In both cases, I favor the younger Medic to outlast Rodriguez seeing that Rodriguez was already declining.
Feel free to hunt for a Medic TKO round combination prop. That’s just not my thing. So, I’ll parlay the Serbian to add another TKO win to his record, or feel free to play it straight.
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