Full UFC Baku Betting Guide: Best Bets for UFC’s Return to Azerbaijan
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UFC heads back to Azerbaijan this weekend for UFC Baku, marking the promotion’s second trip to the city in the last two years and another opportunity to showcase some of the sport’s most exciting international talent. Headlining will be the native Rafael Fiziev taking on the dangerous Manuel Torres in a closely lined fight.
Plenty of exciting fights fill the rest of the card, so let’s take a look at where the betting value is before the fights kick off early Saturday morning.
Here’s a full card betting guide for those looking to place bets:
Prelims
Bekzat Almakhan (+125) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-150)
Pick: Bekzat Almakhan ML and Over 1.5 +225
Jean Matsumoto is now 3-2 inside the UFC with his last three fights coming down to split scorecards. As talented as the favorite is, he tends to stand directly in front of his opponents with his head on centerline. Since his lack of striking defense has resulted in competitive fights, I see value in the underdog.
Bekzat Almakhan was able to use his striking to push former title contender Umar Nurmagomedov and he became the first fighter to stop Brad Katona with strikes. It’s also worth noting that this is essentially a home game since Kazakhstan is just hours from the hosting Azerbaijan.
Since Matsumoto has shown to be durable and has a ground game to worry about, I’ll add the over 1.5 rounds to the dog’s ML to better the value here.
Daniil Donchenko (-500) vs. Theodor Berggren (+375)
Pick: Daniil Donchenko by Submission +750
This looks to be the lowest level fight on the card. Usually means an underdog shot is in play, but Theodor Berggren’s tape did not show anything UFC level. His offense is reduced to strictly kicks and his takedown defense is non-existent. If it wasn’t for a third round comeback win in his last fight, he would have lost three of his last four, so I’m not sure why he’s getting this opportunity.
Daniil Donchenko being -500 against most is laughable. Especially off his debut against Alex Moreno where he was -1200. A number he failed to cover after looking mediocre against the struggling Moreno.
Seeing there’s no way you can lay this price on this level of talent, take Donchenko by sub since anyone that has wanted to take Berggren down, has.
Kaan Ofli (+130) vs. Javier Reyes (-155)
Pick: Kaan Ofli ML +130
Javier Reyes made his debut earlier this year after a Contender Series win in 2025. In his debut he confirmed that he still struggles with head movement. Reyes tends to rely on his length when defending strikes, often stepping back with his chin high in the air. As a result he was hurt by a power right overhand by Douglas Silva de Andrade. An opening that will be exposed the higher he climbs.
I’ll admit Kaan Ofli isn’t a major step up from Silva de Andrade. However, the underdog is a more prime fighter than Reyes’ debut opponent and Ofli now has a handful of fights under the UFC banner. Ofli also has a decent ground game that could help him combat Reyes strength as a grappler.
With both being low level fighters in the 145 class, I’ll take plus money in this dog-or-pass spot.
Nursulton Ruziboev (-225) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+185)
Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev by TKO or Submission +125
Nursulton Ruziboev has almost 50 fights on his record at just the age of 32. 39 of those being wins with 13 coming by TKO and 20 by submission. He’s now 4-1 inside the UFC with his only blemish being a questionable decision to move down in weight to take on Joaquin Buckley in 2024.
As Ruziboev’s record suggests, he’s more than capable of handling a fight both on the feet or the mat. Here, he’ll have to deal with Andrey Pulyaev’s kickboxing. The Russian has a mean liver kick and has shown some toughness after surviving three rounds against heavy hitters Ateba Gautier and Christian Leroy Duncan. Although he gets credit for lasting three rounds as a major underdog in those fights, he hasn’t put out enough volume to be competitive.
Pulyaev has done a good job of staying safe but it’s time to start taking chances if he wants to extend his stay with the UFC. Problem there is that his mentioned liver kick seems to be his only weapon. He’s also benefited from Gautier and Leroy Duncan looking more tentative than they have in the past. Unfortunately for him, Ruziboev is far more willing to pull the trigger than his previous opponents.
Seeing that most of Ruziboev’s wins have come by finish, getting off the -225 number and taking him to end this one is the only logical play. I can see him landing a counter, leading to a finish to a grounded Pulyaev.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-550) vs. Julius Walker (+400)
Pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by TKO +200
Unfortunately athletes coming over to MMA from other sports struggle to show the technical ability to make it at the highest level. For the former basketball player, Julius Walker, he’s still unable to move his head to avoid big strikes. He’s still too reliant on his length and size from both a defensive and offensive standpoint. The 6’4″ Walker has had his best moments when he’s able to get ahold of opponents to hang on them against the cage. But when that fails, he’s shown to be a large target for accurate strikers.
The bookers did Walker no favors by giving him Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev next. The undefeated 25 year old looks to be every bit of a legit prospect. He can strike, wrestle, and most importantly, he’s aggressive. He’s on a five fight finish streak with two of those being his first wins with the company.
Since Walker is a big boy who can plant his feet, I don’t see Rakhman Yakhyaev opting to wrestle first thing. Instead, this feels like a good spot for Rakhman Yakhyaev to log some striking minutes before he starts to take on real competition. His power is legit and one of his UFC wins could have easily been a TKO as a knockdown led to a submission win. I’ll take +200 on him to land a power shot to keep that finish streak going.
Main Card
Abus Magomedov (-115) vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk (-105)
Pick: Abus Magomedov ML -115
Money coming in on Michał Oleksiejczuk has led to this fight becoming a pick em’. At the beginning of the week, Abus Magomedov was around -130 and he’s on pace to being the betting underdog before these two meet in the middle on Saturday.
I’ll give credit when it’s due. Oleksiejczuk has looked improved since joining the Fighting Nerds camp coached by former opponent Caio Borralho. The missing context in his three fight winning streak is the poor competition he’s faced. All three fighters he’s faced are declining products on losing streaks. Before those bookings, Oleksiejczuk looked to be declining as well— going just 1-4 in his last five before the favorable matchups built him back up.
Although Abus Magomedov has shown his own flaws, he does have a wrestling game that Oleksiejczuk has been known to struggle with. Magomedov also has a kickboxing background to at least stay defensively sound against Oleksiejczuk’s strength. Because both share cardio concerns, I like the more complete fighter at this price and I will continue to add if we see his price improve.
Brunno Ferreira (+225) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (-275)
Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -110
Ikram Aliskerov returns this week as he’ll look to put together a strong 2026. A couple of solid performances this year could lead to legit opportunities for the high ceiling fighter. Standing in his way this week will be the power puncher Brunno Ferreira. A tough out for anyone due to his knockout ability and grappling skills.
Both fighters carry finish upside so I see why this fight is favored to end within 1.5 rounds. However, I don’t see Aliskerov entertaining Ferreira on the feet for long. Aliskerov’s game plans are shaped by UFC legend and top-tier wrestler Khabib Nurmagomedov. Seeing that Aliskerov’s background is in Sambo, it’s safe to say he’ll take the path of least resistance and test Ferreira’s takedown defense early.
Since Ferreira has the BJJ to be defensive, I see this fight going late if Aliskerov does indeed shoot on him early. We could also see the two power punchers go through a stretch where they’re making reads to start the fight. I’ll take the over knowing both scripts are options in a matchup between two powerhouses.
Asu Almabayev (-260) vs. Charles Johnson (+210)
Pick: Asu Almabayev ML for Parlays
Our only flyweight fight on the card will be a popular bout for bettors. Many seem to like the idea of getting Charles Johnson at this price due to his wins over notable names, Joshua Van and Lone’er Kavanagh. The only issue is that Johnson was down in those fights before scoring knockout wins. If he doesn’t pull those wins out, he would be just 2-4 in his last 6 and 6-8 with the UFC.
Without looking at the what-ifs, Johnson’s flaw is that he can give away first rounds. Lately he’s looked hesitant to start fights, leading to those comeback efforts being necessary.
We’ve also seen Johnson controlled once he’s been taken down against high level grapplers. Asu Almabayev is exactly that. He lands around 4 takedowns a fight, and has shown the ability to both hunt subs and prioritize control time. The Kazakhstan fighter has also improved his striking as he looks to get back in the main-event scene at 125.
I would not mind seeing Johnson pull off another upset, but he’s disappointed in similar spots in the past and he’s not off a great showing to have any momentum against the talented Almabayev. I see Almabayev getting to his game plan eventually for either a submission or decision win.
Nazim Sadykhov (-240) vs. Matheus Camilo (+195)
Pick: Nazim Sadykhov ML for Parlays
Nazim Sadykhov will get another home game after he delivered a fight of the year contender in Azerbaijan last year. He’ll take on the Brazilian Matheus Camilo in what could be another exciting fight.
This feels like a set-up fight for the crowd to see a native fighter get a win. Although Sadykhov absorbs more damage than he should, Camilo doesn’t move the needle anywhere to be considered a real threat. The underdog is just two fights into his UFC run and in both he’s looked mid at best. His lacks power and his grappling should be easy to deal with. He’s still only 25 so he could develop, but I don’t see enough of a ceiling for him to get past mid-tier talent inside the UFC.
Sadykhov will hold a significant power advantage over Camilo and has already defeated better names in the class. At worst, he disappoints by grinding out a decision. But I see him landing a big shot that will take Camilo out of whatever game plan he has. Take the home country fighter in a clear showcase spot.
Michel Pereira (+300) vs. Shara Magomedov (-380)
Pick: Shara Magomedov by TKO or Submission +120
The curious case of Michel Pereira sees its next chapter. Once a force, Pereira is now a shell of himself, losing three of his last four and looking downright horrible doing it. The Brazilian will look to start a comeback effort when he takes on the popular kickboxer, Shara Magomedov.
There’s not much to say here outside of Pereira’s decline. Not only has his explosion gone missing, his gas tank hits zero as soon as the mid-way point of the first round. Somehow, his latest fight where he won could be considered his worst showing yet. A sloppy split decision win against a fighter he would’ve ran through a couple years ago.
Magomedov may also be a victim of an underserved hype train. He’s explosive, but he can be exposed on the ground and he also carries cardio concerns. However, I thought his conditioning looked improved in his last fight where he had to battle through a tough out in Marc-André Barriault. His explosion was still there in the late rounds, and that alone tells me he should have no problem putting Pereira away later in this fight.
You simply have to last the first couple minutes against this version of Pereira. From there, he’ll defeat himself. A kick to the body could stop him and the Brazlaian has even shown that one clean touch to the chin may be all you need.
I’ll take Magomedov by finish since the price isn’t too far from his TKO line.
Rafael Fiziev (-110) vs. Manuel Torres (-110)
Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -130
I’m not afraid to say I’m undecided on this week’s main event. Rafael Fiziev has certainly been out of form since injuries forced him to be away. Manuel Torres hasn’t competed against this level of competition and has already failed in a big spot so far. A true pick em’ in my eyes, so we’ll side with the over total instead of picking a winner.
Fiziev has only been finished inside of 1.5 once (not counting his injury against Mateusz Gamrot). He’s lasted against heavy hitters like Torres, including going 6 rounds with Justin Gaethje. Of course, Mauricio Ruffy just put him out, but even then Fiziev took that fight late in the second round, almost dragging it to the third.
An extended fight has to be in Fiziev’s game plan. He’s an high-level striker who can provide plenty of looks to keep Torres guessing. I expect him to keep his distance in the beginning of this fight knowing Torres hasn’t seen many second rounds in his career.
It’s also worth noting that Fiziev was in a similar spot last year. At that time, he was an underdog against a longer, younger, and dangerous fighter in Ignacio Bahamondes. A fight that was also in his home country.
I may have made more of a case for a Fiziev underdog play if the line continues to move toward Torres, but the over is co-signing him without fully committing to a declining product. At just a twenty cent difference, I’ll take him to make this a close or slow fight for the first 1.5.
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