Full UFC 330 Betting Guide: Can Ian Garry Dethrone Islam Makhachev?
Read Time:9 Minute, 7 Second
UFC 330 is finally here, bringing two title fights and an intriguing card from top to bottom. Headlining the event will be the current #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Islam Makhachev when takes on the polarizing Ian Garry.
Before we jump into the card, a quick recap from last week. We went 5-5 on bets given out for -1.27 units. Not a good result, but it’s never bad to keep your losses to a minimum. You can now track our bets on our BetMMA page to keep up with our results from week-to-week.
Now, let’s dive into the card:
Prelims
Jeremiah Wells (+650) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-1000)
Pick: Myktybek Orolbai ML for parlay
Luckily in our First Look post earlier this week, we used Myktybek Orolbai as a parlay anchor at -625. Since then he’s ballooned to -1000 — an unplayable number now.
I will admit that this number does sell Jeremiah Wells short since he’s a BJJ blackbelt and a tough out for anyone. However at age 39, I don’t see him keeping up with Orolbai’s pace for 15 minutes. The underdog’s overall competition has been weak as well, so Orolbai will feel like a whole new level for him.
If you missed our parlay, take the heavy favorite by submission at +235 since his game is on the mat.
Neil Magny (+114) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (-135)
Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj by Decision +700 | 1u
This matchup was at pick em’ odds for most of the week until money came in Ramiz Brahimaj.
I agree with the movement due to Brhimaj’s continued improvement with his striking. Since his comeback from injury, he’s been able to show flashes with his combinations to go along with his dangerous ground game.
Although the favorite has never won by decision, I think this a is a good spot for him to go 15 minutes with the veteran Neil Magny. Magny has been known to stage late round come-backs, but eventually his slow starts will come back to haunt him at age 39.
I think Brhimaj can bank minutes with his wrestling against the elder Magny and I also see him winning most of the striking exchanges just by being the younger and faster fighter.
Since I still think it could be a close fight, I like this number on the favorite to win a close decision. Go to BetMGM for this price, as most books have this in the +500 range. Knock down to a half unit if BetMGM is unavailable for you.
Vicente Luque (+105) vs. Tresean Gore (-125)
Pick: Vicente Luque ML +105 | 1.25u
Tresean Gore is 6-4 with a 3-4 UFC record. He’s walked into fights as high as a +400 underdog, so I’m somewhat shocked to see him as the favorite against the veteran Vicente Luque.
I say somewhat because Luque has been prone to let-downs. However, he’s off a great win against Kelvin Gastelum where he was able to hurt Gastelum with an uppercut before finishing the durable middleweight with an anaconda choke.
Since being up a class upgrades Luque’s power, I like getting him at dog money. Gore is easily pushed back and outside his own power, I don’t see where he holds an advantage over Luque. It’ll take a poor performance from Luque for Gore to take a clear win, so I’ll take plus money on the higher ceiling fighter in this matchup.
Donte Johnson (-258) vs. Eric McConico (+210)
Pick: Fight Starts Round 3 -105
Donte Johnson disappointed in a similar showcase spot earlier this year against Cody Brundage. The undefeated prospect won by split decision, but showed his inexperience. It’s also a real question on if he’s undersized for the weight-class. Standing at just 5’8″, his frame has lowered his ceiling after seeing him in the big leagues. His next test will come in the form of the 36-year-old Eric McConico.
I was auto-fading McConico up to this point. McConico came in on short notice to save a bout last year, and that seemed to be the only reason why an elder fighter of his level would make it into the UFC.
However, McConico has made the most of his opportunities by winning two fights, bringing his UFC record to 2-2. He has a solid frame for the class, and a good fight IQ to take advantage of limited opponents.
Still, the underdog hasn’t reacted well to power punchers. Both of McConico’s losses have come by TKO, so I see why Johnson is getting this line. But since the favorite has question marks to answer and the underdog isn’t impressive anywhere, I’d rather bet on this fight to go late than take a winner.
Chidi Njokuani (+250) vs. Joel Álvarez (-310)
Pick: Joel Alvarez ML for parlay
Joel Alvarez was our second leg for our parlay of the week. Like Orolbai, Alvarez’s price has gone up from our entry at -230.
Like I mentioned in the First Look post, I see why some are down Alvarez since he moved up a weight class. However, Chidi Njokuani has shown that he deserves to be faded against anyone dangerous. Njokuani slows as fights get longer and his volume suffers because of it. He’s also prone to be hurt on the feet and finished on the ground.
Knowing Alvarez is a fight finisher and in more prime shape, I don’t see how he drops this fight if he avoids the early TKO threat from Njokuani. I like Alvarez by club and sub to continue his journey at welterweight.
Main Card
Edson Barboza (+470) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-650)
Pick: Esteban Ribovics ML and Fight Starts Round 2 SGP -123
Esteban Ribovics is the second largest favorite on the card this week. The exciting action fighter has built a reputation of putting on great fights. Now he’ll get another willing dance partner in the long-time UFC veteran, Edson Barboza.
Barboza has been teasing the idea that this may be his last fight. At age 40 and with 32 UFC fights, this main card opener may be the spot where we last see the Brazilian.
Knowing that, you always fade the retiring fighter. However, I’ll still show Barboza some respect as his skillset should allow him to compete early against a hittable Ribovics. Where the favorite should separate is late, once the volume picks up and fatigue starts to set in. Take the favorite plus round two to start on FanDuel for the discount play.
Mansur Abdul-Malik (-675) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+490)
Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik by TKO or Submission -145 | 2u
After handing out beatdowns to start his UFC career, Mansur Abdul-Malik was on the opposite end of one when we last seen him against the former kickboxer Yousri Belgaroui. His bounce-back opportunity will come against Dustin Stoltzfus, a ten fight UFC veteran.
Stoltzfus is just 3-7 in those ten showings. Although his record may sell his skills short, he just hasn’t been able to put his game together for winning performances. He’s a decent grappler and willing to strike, but his major fall back is that he hasn’t reacted well to power and that is a major red flag against Abdul-Malik.
I like Abdul Malik to score the finish knowing how often Stoltzfus has been rocked. I’ll pay a little extra juice on the submission insurance since Stoltzfus could lazily shoot into a guillotine. Truly the only way to play the heavy favorite seeing that anything short of a finish will be another disappointment.
Jalin Turner (-148) vs. Kauê Fernandes (+124)
Pick: Fight to be won by TKO -145 | 2u
Jalin Turner and Kaue Fernandes have been promoted from the prelims to a featured bout on the main card after an injury to Jose Ochoa forced Charles Johnson to the prelims. Out of all the matchups considered for the promotion, it’s not hard to see why these two got the nod. Both are violent strikers, so we will take stock in one of them falling before the final horn.
Turner returned last year after a brief retirement. He rolled through the previously mentioned Edson Barboza in just two minutes in his first bout back. His 5th TKO win out of his eight total with the UFC.
Fernandes is also no stranger to a TKO. Two of his three UFC wins have come by such and he has four others on his record from the regional scene. He’s know to build off his powerful calf kicks, which could be open against the lanky 6’3″ Turner.
I expect nothing less than fireworks from these two. Turner presses forward, Fernandes is down to brawl, and with the fight lined -460 to end inside the distance, I’ll take either to win by TKO at -145 on BetRivers.
Mackenzie Dern (-218) vs. Gillian Robertson (+180)
Pick: Gillian Robertson by Submission +1400 | 0.75u
Our co-main was covered in our First Look post this week and I have to admit that I have switched my view on the best bet to make. Originally I had the champion Mackenzie Dern penciled in as the best bet seeing that she prefers a ground fight. However, the prop market released and there was nothing that stood out outside the favorite by submission +200.
That led me to underdog. I simply can’t ignore this number on her to win by submission. Gillian Robertson holds the record for most submissions inside the division and over half of her total wins have came by the method. Of course, Dern has never been subbed, but like I mentioned in our First Look post, she is prone to let-downs.
Over five rounds, Robertson’s wrestling and top control could weigh on the champ. Dern was taken down nine times in her last bout, so the opening is there for the dog. I don’t mind a small wager on her to catch Dern in a bad spot late if she ends up converting most of her takedowns.
Islam Makhachev (-345) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+275)
Pick: Ian Machado Garry ML +275 | 1u
We locked in the underdog Ian Garry at this price earlier in the week and there’s been no significant movement. Unlike the co-main, my mind hasn’t changed as Garry still carries the only value in this matchup.
Since my thought process remains the same, check out the First Look post earlier in the week to see why I prefer the dog. I would only add if Garry goes past +300.
Official Bets Recap
- Myktybek Orolbai ML and Joel Alvarez ML -152 | 2.5u
- Ramiz Brahimaj by Decision +700 | 1u
- Vicente Luque ML +105 | 1.25u
- Mansur Abdul-Malik by TKO or Submission -145 | 2u
- Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes: Fight to be won by TKO -145 | 2u
- Gillian Robertson by Submission +1400 | 0.75u
- Ian Machado Garry ML +275 | 1u
Happy
50 %
Sad
0 %
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
0 %
Surprise
50 %
About Post Author
