5 Burning Questions for UFC 321
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UFC 321 heads to Abu Dhabi with a card loaded with intrigue and uncertainty at the top. From Tom Aspinall’s first heavyweight title defense to the ripple effects of Zhang Weili’s move up in weight, this event could reshape multiple divisions heading into 2026.
With marquee names, championship implications, and potential superfights looming, all eyes will be on how the night unfolds in the desert. In this edition of 5 Burning Questions, we tackle the most pressing topics heading into fight night:
#1. We’re in one of the weakest heavyweight eras. How big is it for Tom Aspinall to deliver an impressive first title defense?
Lee: I don’t think Tom Aspinall has to win impressively, he just has to win. The division is weak without a doubt, but as the champion, he must win and keep defending the title. Ciryl Gane has rediscovered his winning ways and should pose somewhat of a threat to Aspinall.
Aspinall has already defeated the likes of Sergei Pavlovich, Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov and Serghei Spivac all ranked in the top 10. After Gane, the only new fights for him would be against Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes Acosta.
It’s not Aspinall’s fault the heavyweight division is down right now. However, he has to keep stacking wins before getting a shot at Jon Jones or Alex Pereira down the road.
Evan: I agree with Lee that it’s mainly just important for Aspinall to win regardless of how he does it. However, given how easily Gane was dismantled by Jon Jones back at UFC 285 in March 2023, saying Tom doesn’t have to put on a dominant performance feels somewhat silly.
If he struggles at all against Ciryl, it will give Jones plenty of ammo to justify why he inexplicably ducked Aspinall for two years. So from that standpoint it’s pretty important for the English champion to pull off an impressive victory in Abu Dhabi. It also could provide some added leverage for Tom to put the pressure back on Jon to face him. That is, if the 38-year-old legend comes out of retirement to compete on next year’s White House card.
#2. How disastrous from a promotional standpoint would it be for the UFC if Ciryl Gane pulled off the upset over Aspinall?
Lee: I don’t think it would be disastrous at all. Upsets happen in all sports plus the UFC views Gane as a star in the sport. We also have to keep in mind that this will be the Frenchmen’s fourth title fight. I know some will go back to the way he lost to Jon Jones. But, Jones is arguably the best fighter to ever put on 4oz gloves.
Gane is a super athletic heavyweight who moves as if he was a middleweight or light heavyweight. A Gane win sets up a possible rematch with Aspinall at the White House card.
Evan: I couldn’t disagree more, it would be a major disaster for the promotion if Gane were to win here. His loss to Jones was not only inexcusably bad. But, it frankly might be the worst performance in a UFC title fight of all-time.
He couldn’t even last half a round in that bout, and let’s also not forget how awful he looked in his last outing where he took a controversial split decision win over Alexander Volkov at UFC 310 a year ago. Aspinall not being able to beat the Frenchman would be awful for the company in a variety of ways, and an enormous blight on his star power.
Additionally, it would kill nearly any opportunity of him getting super fights with Jones or Alex Pereira. Lastly, I don’t buy that a potential rematch between Ciryl and Tom is a big enough matchup to be on the White House event, or even fits the expected theme of the card. I think having the expectations that the American market/fan base would care about that fight is a massive assumption to make.
#3. What are the chances Tom Aspinall gets a matchup with either Jon Jones or Alex Pereira in 2026?
Lee: I think there is a good chance that he fights Jon Jones or Alex Pereira in 2026. My only caveat is he would have to be the champion. If I had to assign a percentage, I would say 90% because the UFC knows the division isn’t stacked and they always want to put on fan friendly fights.
With Pereira, it seems more likely, only because Jones seems to have zero interest in fighting Aspinall. Whereas Pereira has stated that a move to heavyweight is next for him. A chance to be a three-division champion is something the UFC will definitely use to sell this fight.
Evan: As Lee stated, this all hinges on Aspinall still having the heavyweight title after October 25th. That’s his golden ticket to creating a path for a matchup with either Jones or Pereira next year. With that being said, what makes me less bullish than Lee here is, I simply don’t believe Jon and Poatan have any real desire to fight Tom.
While their reasoning might not be valid, they just don’t seem to view him as a worthy opponent. Frankly I think there is a better chance they both bypass Aspinall altogether and try to face one another instead. I could see the UFC maybe coercing Jones into facing the Englishman though, as a non-negotiable if he wants to come out of retirement to fight at the White House.
Ultimately, I feel Aspinall will have to become undeniable as a champion, and a star, to solidify securing a bout against Jon or Alex in 2026.
#4. With Zhang Weili moving up in weight, can Mackenzie Dern or Virna Jandiroba reignite the division as its new champion?
Lee: I am going to shock my colleague Evan with my answer. I think Mackenzie Dern is a great talent and Virna Jandiroba is a very skilled fighter. But, I don’t see either one adding a spark to the division. I think Gillian Robertson is the answer here. She has a fan friendly fighting style, and she is always looking for the finish.
She can also be a technical fighter if need be. Versatile fighters always make for great champions, being that they can adapt to their opponent or impose their will on the opposition. Robertson doesn’t have a sterling record, but she is currently riding a four-fight win streak and ranked #10. Gillian Robertson is the spark plug the strawweight division didn’t know it needed.
Evan: I really respect and appreciate Lee calling his shot with Gillian Robertson specifically. But I think he’s touching on a broader point in that it’s really Weili’s removal from the division that might provide the spark it’s looking for. Having such a domineering champion no longer lording over everyone, could be a breath of fresh air for many of the contenders currently at 115.
Whether it’s Dern, Jandiroba, Robertson or others like Alexia Thainara, Amanda Lemos, Angela Hill, Denise Gomes, Fatima Kline, Iasmin Lucindo, Loopy Godinez, Piera Rodriguez, Sam Hughes, Tabitha Ricci, Tatiana Suarez, Tecia Pennington, Yan Xiaonan, and Yazmin Jauregui. They all now have a chance to make a run at the title, which creates excitement and intrigue intrinsically. The depth and parity of this division can now potentially blossom in 2026.
#5. What other matchups or fights on the card are you most excited for and deserve more attention?
Lee: I was going to go with the Jailton Almeida-Alexander Volkov fight. However, I am going to go with the Umar Nurmagomedov-Mario Bautista scrap.
Nurmagomedov is coming off a loss to Merab Dvalishvili where he was totally dominated. Mario Bautista on the other hand looked awesome in his win against the debuting Patchy Mix. Nurmagomedov is looking to rebound, and Bautista is looking to extend his eight-fight winning streak and jump into the top 5 in the division rankings.
There is a lot on the line for both fighters which makes this a must-see fight.
Evan: It’s hard to argue with Lee’s pick of Nurmagomedov-Bautista given the stakes of that bout. But I will choose Nathaniel Wood-Jose Miguel Delgado for my pick.
Wood is a savvy, well rounded veteran who really seems to have found his home at featherweight. He’s 5-1 since moving to 145 back in July 2022 and has compiled quality wins over Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain, Charles Rosa, Daniel Pineda, and Morgan Charriere during that stretch.
Delgado meanwhile has burst onto the scene since coming into the promotion via DWCS in 2024. He’s got killer finishing instincts, with all 10 of his career victories coming by way of stoppages. In his latest Octagon outing, he produced a 26 second KO of the Year contender against Hyder Amil back in June.
This matchup between the 32 year old Englishman and 27 year old Yuma, Arizona product has fireworks written all over it.
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