UFC Ottawa Predictions: Iaquinta vs. Cerrone
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The UFC returns to Canada on Saturday May 4 and Ottawa will offer up the Canadian Tire Centre to host the event. The prelims begin at 3:00pm MT and will be broadcasting live on ESPN. The main card can be found on ESPN+ starting at 6:00pm MT and will feature a main event with Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (#8) taking on “Raging” Al Iaquinta (#4). The main event may have title contender ramifications in lightweight division.
The Scrap staff has predictions for a talent packed main card below.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Andrew Sanchez (Middleweight)
Jordan: UFC newcomer Barriault (11-1) is riding a 8-fight win streak and rightfully got his UFC call. Only ever dropping a split decision, he has looked great throughout his career with 8 KO/TKO finishes to his name. He comes up against TUF 23 champion Andrew Sanchez (10-4), who holds wins over Trevor Smith and Khalil Rountree, but has looked unconvincing since. A move back down to middleweight hasn’t brought the results sought.
Andrew Sanchez def. Marc-Andre Barriault via unanimous decision.
Connor: Barriault has shown in his career that he is a knockout threat every time he steps into the cage. 8 of his 11 wins have come by way of knockout. I feel that Sanchez will look to get this fight to the ground, and take control of the fight that way. He’s usually pretty good at that, if Sanchez can control the fight, we will win one way or another, but if he has to stand, that might not work out well.
Andrew Sanchez def. Marc-Andre Barriault via unanimous decision.
Walt Harris (#7) vs Sergey Spivak (Heavyweight)
Jordan: Walt Harris should probably be on a 3-fight win streak, but an unusual run of luck has saw “The Big Ticket” go 1-1-1. A true UFC veteran, Harris has been competing with and beating the best since 2013 and presents a baptism of fire for UFC newcomer Sergey Spivak. A 24 year old, undefeated prospect who has earned finishes in all of his 9 wins. Spivak has never saw the third round and will likely be pushed all the way to take a win. A fight that hinges on the quality level of Spivak. Has this call come to soon? Is he legit? Can he go the distance? All these questions and more will be answered come fight night.
Walt Harris def. Sergey Spivank via unanimous decision.
Connor: Spivak is a young undefeated prospect who has shown the ability to finish with submissions and knockouts. He has finished every fight in his professional career with a 9-0 record. Harris is a veteran in the UFC and is coming off a big victory over Andre Arlovski, he looks to ride that momentum into this fight and show that Spivak is still a prospect. Harris will most likely look to formally welcome Spivak to the UFC.
Walt Harris def. Sergey Spivak via TKO in round 1.
Brad Katona vs Merab Dvalishvili (Bantamweight)
Jordan: With 11 decision wins between them, Brad Katona and Merab Dvalishvili are likely to see the final bell in an intriguing match-up at 135 pounds. Katona is an undefeated prospect, with 8 wins and the TUF champion status to his name. He enters this fight the favorite. Labelled the SBG bully by his coach John Cavanagh, Katona is infamous for his serious approach to fighting and training. Dvalishvili picked up his first UFC win last time out over Terrion Ware. He’ll have his work cut out to make it two in a row.
Brad Katona def. Merab Dvalishvili via unanimous decision.
Connor: I feel like it is not nice to give a compliment to a fighter by saying they are a smart fighter. Katona is a smart fighter, and it is a good thing. Katona is so well rounded, but does not excel really anywhere, so he fights a smart fight. Katona will find your weakness, and he will beat you there. Dvalishvili got his first win in the UFC in his last bout after a rough 0-2 start to his UFC career.
Brad Katona def. Merab Dvalishvili via TKO in round 2.
Cub Swanson (#10) vs Shane Burgos (Featherweight)
Jordan: On a 3-fight losing streak, Cub Swanson desperately needs a win. Hence the drastic drop in opposition as he takes on Shane Burgos. Burgos has already earned 2 fight of the night honors in his short UFC career. For anyone who knows the sport Cub Swanson isn’t shy of getting into a fun fight either, so expect a fight of the night contender for as long as it lasts. Cub Swason while on a downward turn, isn’t done yet. He’s only fallen to the best at 145 pounders and will be keen to get back to winning ways. For Shane Burgos, this is a huge opportunity to add his name to the UFC featherweight rankings.
Cub Swanson def. Shane Burgos via TKO in round 2.
Connor: Burgos got back on track in his last fight after suffering his first professional loss at the hands of Calvin Kattar. Burgos will look to continue his upward trend and prove the loss on his record is something of a formality. A win over a veteran and the essential gate keeper at featherweight would be huge in Burgos career. Swanson will be a test to determine if Burgos is worthy of ranking or not.
Cub Swanson def. Shane Burgos via TKO in round 2.
Derek Brunson (#8) vs Elias Theodorou (#13) (Middleweight)
Jordan: After suffering back-to-back KO defeats, Derek Brunson appears to be the gatekeeper at 185 pounds. A win over him would certainly put Elias Theodorou in the mix. Brunson however, has only ever fell to upper echelon guys and Theodorou hasn’t proved himself to be that as of yet. Brunson has a forward pressing fun fight style. A kill or be killed mindset that has saw him deliver some big knockouts but also be on the receiving end of a few himself. Theodorou is pretty much the polar opposite. A tactician, he looks to point fight his way to decision victories. His style while not to everyone’s taste is proving successful. Currently riding a 3-fight win streak, Theodorou has put himself in the rankings. Another win should put him among the top 10 UFC middleweights.
Derek Brunson def. Elias Theodorou via TKO in round 1.
Connor: Theodorou is really good at out-working fighters and beating them in a point fight. His cardio is unmatched and dances around fighters, the style is great actually. Theodorou hits his opponent and dances out of the way of getting hit. Brunson is a threat to knock any fighter out on any night, but he has had a rough slide as of late. Brunson is 2-3 since the start of 2017, and I think he suffers another loss at the hands of Theodorou.
Elias Theodorou def. Derek Brunson via unanimous decision.
Al Iaquinta (#4) vs Donald Cerrone (#8) (Lightweight)
Jordan: A truly underappreciated fighter is Al Iaquinta, going up against one of the most loved fighters in the sport Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. Wins over Kevin Lee, Jorge Masvidal, Diego Sanchez, Joe Lauzon and Ross Pearson provide the basis for an impressive Iaquinta resume. Despite such wins, “Raging Al” is most praised for his valiant defeat at the hands of current lightweight king, Khabib Nurmagomedov. On a days notice, he stepped up and took Khabib the distance, fighting bravely and even forcing the renowned wrestler to stand up for much of the fight.
Cerrone’s credentials are undeniable. Holding 22 wins inside the Octagon, more than anyone to ever do it, he is a true legend of the sport. A highlight reel many fighters would kill for and a loyal fan base to go alongside it, he’s pretty much achieved everything as a fighter beside being UFC champion. A drop down to 155 pounds gives him a real chance at getting another title shot. He firstly humbled rising star Alex Hernandez last time out to earn a fight with #4 ranked Al Iaquinta. A win here puts him right in the mix of the stacked 155-pound division.
Al Iaquinta def. Donald Cerrone via unanimous decision.
Connor: It does not really make sense, but Iaquinta looked like the fighter to give Khabib Nurmagomedov the toughest and most competitive fight. Khabib has absolutely mauled everyone except for Iaquinta, and maybe he deserves more respect. The problem is that Cerrone is on fire right now. Since Cerrone had a child, he has had an incredible focus and looks like a serious issue for his opponents to deal with. It looks like we are back to seeing the Cerrone that received fight of the night bonuses on a consistent basis. I think with a win, Cerrone’s name goes into the top list of title contenders.
Donald Cerrone def. Al Iaquinta via submission in round 3.
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Follow our writers Connor Rogowsky (@rogowskyc) and Jordan Ellis (@JordanEllisUK).
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