PFL Pittsburgh: Main Card Predictions
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The PFL returns with a card that’s equal parts opportunity and risk, as rising prospects, former champions, and new signings collide across multiple divisions. From Johnny Eblen vs. Bryan Battle to a pivotal clash between Impa Kasanganay and Dalton Rosta, this lineup is filled with matchups that could reshape the landscape of their respective weight classes.
What stands out most is the promotion’s willingness to test its talent early. Whether it’s throwing newcomers into the fire or fast-tracking prospects against seasoned veterans, these fights carry real stakes beyond just the win column. Add in a compelling women’s flyweight showdown and several potential sleeper fights, and this card has all the ingredients to deliver both clarity and chaos.
We break it all down ahead of PFL Pittsburgh:
Middleweight Bout
Johnny Eblen (1) vs. Bryan Battle (9)
Joey: This is a fascinating but dangerous first matchup for Bryan Battle in the PFL. I like that they’re throwing him straight into the fire to see if he’s one of those TUF winners with real championship potential.
That said, Johnny Eblen’s skill set isn’t always the most exciting for casual or hardcore fans. Battle has solid takedown defense, but this is Eblen we’re talking about, and they don’t call him “Pressure” for nothing.
We’ve also seen Battle fade before, or at least look gassed late. Because of that, his clearest path to victory feels like a knockout. Still, something tells me Eblen plays spoiler here, and the PFL might end up regretting not giving Battle a more favorable build.
Official Prediction: Johnny Eblen via Unanimous Decision
Evan: So I also like the signing of Battle by the PFL and think he’s a very capable fighter. But to be honest, I’m sort of puzzled by this matchmaking. I don’t know if feeding him to the wolves right away is the best utilization of his debut. Putting that all aside, Bryan Battle is without a doubt a threat to pull off the upset here.
He’s a potent, rangy striker that possesses big power in his hands and kicks. Plus, he’s no push over on the mat either. Given the way in which Johnny Eblen can throw caution to the wind at times and walks into the fire, Battle could for sure potentially hurt him in an exchange. That shouldn’t be an overlooked outcome.
On the other hand, this is a bit of a gut check for Johnny. He’s known for mauling guys with his pressure, wrestling, and breaking them behind his pace, which didn’t happen in his last fight with van Steenis. Frankly, he gassed out late, got sloppy, and out dogged by Costello. That has to be a bitter pill for him to swallow.
I expect Eblen to get back to his bread and butter in this matchup, redeeming himself from his first career loss. I see him being aggressive in the striking exchanges, pushing Battle to the fence, securing takedowns, and drowning him in a vintage performance.
Official Prediction: Johnny Eblen via Unanimous Decision
Middleweight Bout
Impa Kasanganay (3) vs. Dalton Rosta (5)
Joey: Impa Kasanganay is clearly the more experienced fighter coming into this bout. He recently got back in the win column after back-to-back KO losses. Meanwhile, Dalton Rosta returns after suffering the first finish of his career. But nobody has more confidence than Dalton Rosta.
Honestly, there’s no better time for these two to meet in the SmartCage. Both fighters should benefit from being outside of a tournament format. As a fan of Rosta, it’s worth noting he’s been putting a major emphasis on improving his cardio.
Impa is no slouch, but Rosta has the hometown advantage here. Typically, after a fighter suffers their first knockout loss, they come back more cautious and calculated. Because of that, I can see Rosta leaning on what made him so successful early in his career, his takedowns.
Official Prediction: Dalton Rosta via 2nd-Round TKO/KO
Evan: I’m the complete inverse to Joey on this one. I don’t find Dalton Rosta to be all that entertaining or interesting personally. I feel his 80s high school bully gimmick is unoriginal. The dude’s undoubtedly talented though as a fighter. He’s physically stout, a gifted grappler, and definitely pursues the fight.
There’s easily a path where Rosta overwhelms Kasanganay, runs him to the fence, constantly takes him down, and smothers him. However, I think people are sleeping on Impa too much in this matchup. Some seem to forget how much issues he gave Johnny Eblen in their scrap back in 2024. He shut one of Eblen’s eyes, had him hurt multiple times in the second round, and nearly finished the former PFL champion in that fight.
I’m going to roll with Kasanganay to get the win in hostile territory. I believe he’s really going to make Dalton work for the takedowns and control, then pull him into somewhat of a dog fight. Which will wear on the Pittsburgh native. Then Impa’s striking should take over and given the power he’s got in both hands, I see him catching Rosta at some point.
Official Prediction: Impa Kasanganay via 2nd or 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Ariane Lipski da Silva (10) vs. Sumiko Inaba (5)
Joey: I love when PFL signs fighters from the UFC. It’s usually a worthwhile investment, especially in the case of Ariane Lipski da Silva given how thin the promotion’s women’s division is right now. She can either shine and prove her UFC experience paid off, or help build the division by giving rising prospects tough, meaningful fights. In this matchup, I think it’s the latter.
Sumiko Inaba’s only two losses have come against a former Bellator title challenger and the current champion of the division, so she’s been tested. At 35, fights like this feel especially important for her trajectory.
That said, Ariane is as tough as they come. Even on a three-fight skid, she’s shown real growth in her striking. This one is honestly tough to call.
If it stays standing, I think Inaba is the more technical fighter. But Lipski da Silva brings a level of relentlessness and power that Inaba is missing. For the sake of the division, a win for Ariane would go a long way in keeping things interesting.
Official Prediction: Ariane Lipski da Silva via 2nd-Round TKO/KO
Evan: I think this could end up being the sleeper for FOTN. This is an extremely competitive bout across the board. Inaba is pretty underrated overall in my opinion. She’s tough as nails, Dakota Ditcheva threw the kitchen sink at her and still couldn’t finish the Hawaiian vet. Sumiko also has crisp boxing, a solid jab, and is a decent wrestler.
Lipski da Silva meanwhile had an inconsistent UFC run, and has gone 4-6 in her last ten fights. But is probably the more potent offensive fighter of the two. Her power is superior to Inaba’s, she’s a dangerous kicking threat, and has the slicker submission game.
Ariane might get the nod here simply for the reasons I just stated. However, I believe her proneness to make mistakes will play into Inaba’s hands, and create opportunities for her to secure takedowns when needed, as well as outboxing Lipski da Silva for large portions of this scrap.
Official Prediction: Sumiko Inaba via Unanimous Decision
Featherweight Bout
Julio Arce vs. Alexei Pergande (9)
Joey: Alexei Pergande looks like the real deal, but Julio Arce is undoubtedly his toughest test to date. Arce hasn’t been submitted in a long time, and that’s Pergande’s bread and butter, which makes this a risky matchup if the goal is to build a homegrown prospect.
Arce’s 96% takedown defense will definitely be tested here, and it could play a major factor in how this fight unfolds. After picking up some wins on the regional scene for the first time since 2017, it feels like Arce got the confidence boost he needed before stepping back into a bigger promotion.
I’m going to trust the math here and side with the veteran.
Official Prediction: Julio Arce via Unanimous Decision
Evan: Pergande is one of the rare homegrown talents the PFL has nurtured, and this feels like another example of them putting a prospect they’re high on in a showcase spot. But it’s another matchup that could really blow up in their face. Arce is a seasoned veteran with nearly 30 career fights against quality competition, and has only been stopped twice. He can box his ass off, has power, and can grapple well too.
Expecting a 24 year old fighter with only seven pro bouts to walk through a guy of Julio’s caliber, feels like the promotion possibly biting off more than they can chew. I do like Alexei’s skills though for the most part. He’s a rangy, versatile, dynamic striker, who attacks with multiple explosive weapons. Plus, the kid has some nasty submission ability, primarily from the front headlock position with D’arce chokes.
I don’t fault Joey at all for taking Arce here, and won’t be the least bit surprised if he wins. With that being said, I’ll go ahead and pick Pergande myself. I just feel he’s got enough juice on the feet to win the exchanges, and see him being more lively in the grappling scrambles.
Official Prediction: Alexei Pergande via Unanimous Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Lázaro Dayron (9) vs. Jacob Thrall
Joey: This is a really intriguing matchup, and it’s clear why it’s opening the card. Lázaro Dayron comes in undefeated, and with the nickname “The Hunter,” you know he’s always looking for the finish.
Jacob Thrall is the more experienced fighter, with 23 professional bouts on his résumé. While he’s had his ups and downs, he’s been on the winning side more often than not in recent fights. Oh, and he’s just as aggressive when it comes to chasing a finish.
Admittedly, back when I managed MMA fighters, I matched one of my fighters up with Thrall. He’s dangerous, but he’s definitely beatable. If the goal here is to build Lázaro, this is a bit of a gamble for the PFL.
To keep things interesting, I’m going with Thrall to pull off the upset. Either way, this one doesn’t feel like it’s going to the judges’ scorecards.
Official Prediction: Jacob Thrall via 2nd-Round TKO/KO
Evan: I’m in agreement with Joey from the standpoint that this is clearly a matchup the PFL is utilizing as a showcase of sorts of Dayron. However, it might end up backfiring in a big way on them. Thrall is a really sound fighter, who is durable, can grapple, and has decent pop in his hands. He is by no means some easy out or stepping stone and for long time fight fans, almost reminds of a poor man’s Josh Neer.
Lázaro on the other hand, is definitely talented, but I’m not sure I buy the hype around him as a prospect. As a former member of the Cuban national wrestling team, his offensive takedowns and scrambling are the foundation of his game. He’s also got a solid jab, and combination punching. But he’s a bit undersized in my opinion for a bantamweight, and isn’t a dynamic finisher.
I think Thrall is an extremely live dog here and feel he’s going to be a stiff test overall for Dayron. But I’ll take Lázaro to edge him out on the scorecards, using his wrestling to control a majority of the fight.
Official Prediction: Lázaro Dayron via Unanimous Decision
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