Full UFC Vegas 119 Betting Guide: An Underrated Card Loaded With Betting Value
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Coming off one of the most talked-about UFC events in recent memory, the promotion heads back to the Apex this Saturday, June 20th, for UFC Vegas 119.
At the top we’ll see be a pivotal rematch at men’s flyweight. Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi will look to make their case for who will be the next contender for Joshua Van’s title. Leading up to their fight will be a number of fight finishers and legitimate prospects to watch for.
Since we have a great card during an exciting time in the sport, it’s only right we place some wagers.
Here’s a full card betting guide for those looking to place bets:
Prelims
Shane Collins (-220) vs. Otari Tanzilovi (+180)
Pick: Shane Collins by TKO or Decision -150
Otari Tanzilovi is well rounded but I wasn’t a fan of his pace in his recent fight against low-level competition. He also didn’t respond well to being pressured when we last seen him on the big stage. A decision loss in his Contender Series showing in 2024
Although Shane Collins has more to prove, I trust him to be more competitive over 15 minutes seeing that his boxing and wrestling has looked good enough to get past Tanzilovi. I also think Collins will be the one to constantly push forward since he’s shown more urgency in his fights.
Since the favorite isn’t much of a submission threat, I’ll view the TKO/Decision double chance prop as a decent discount on the -220 ML.
Karol Rosa (-125) vs. Luana Santos (+105)
Pick: Luana Santos ML +105
Karol Rosa’s volume has plagued her in the past when facing high-level grapplers. Two of her three losses saw her grounded because of her lack of pressure and with Luana Santos’ background being in Judo and BJJ, she will look to do the same.
Santos has dealt with cardio issues in the past, but Rosa’s lack of offense should allow the underdog to get to her game plan. At plus money in a close matchup, I’ll side with the younger fighter with more to prove.
Leon Shahbazyan (+275) vs. Levan Chokheli (-350)
Pick: Levan Chokheli by TKO -165
Our second matchup between two debuting fighters. Like the first, this fight may be better without a wager since our intel is very limited.
What I have seen is that Leon Shahbazyan struggles with his striking defense. He tends to keep his chin on center line and his tall stature leads to him eating clean overhands. If Levan Chokheli has proven anything, it’s that he has power, so taking the favorite to give Shahbazyan his 5th TKO loss is the only bet that makes sense. Maybe hunt for his TKO prop plus an under to get more value.
Michael Aswell Jr. (-450) vs. Gaston Bolaños (+350)
Pick: Fight Doesn’t go the Distance +100
Out of Gaston Bolanos’ thirteen fights, ten of them have resulted in a finish. His Muay-Thai background could be the blame, as he’s usually standing straight in front of his opponents, leading to high-paced violent fights.
Michael Aswell has already shown that he’ll be willing to throw hands and will chase a finish if there’s a glimpse. My only concern is that he absorbs a lot of strikes thrown his way. If the favorite bypasses a wrestling game plan here, I see these two throwing heavy shots till one of them drops. My guess is Bolanos is the one to fall, but at plus money, I’ll just bet on violence.
Mitch Raposo (+165) vs. Allan Nascimento (-200)
Pick: Mitch Raposo +3.5 +100
My main beef with Mitch Raposo is that he doesn’t trust his hands. He’s constantly darting in and out of boxing range which leads to long stretches of low volume. His coaches have urged him to stay in the pocket in fights, where he could also use his wrestling to win minutes. Instead he continues to fight like a kickboxer. A style that has led to a losing UFC record thus far.
With that said, I think that in-an-out fight style could be beneficial against Allan Nascimento. Getting on the inside with the Brazilian BJJ Blackbelt should be exactly what you shouldn’t do. Especially since Nascimento has still struggled to get his striking going.
After Raposo did well with a wrestler in his last matchup, I’m hoping he can continue to use his speed and athleticism to stay away from the better grappler. If so, I like him to at least win a round by creating big moments on the feet. I’ll take him to do just that for either an upset win or a close decision loss.
Bia Mesquita (-575) vs. Melissa Mullins (+425)
Pick: Melissa Mullins ML +425
I will give Bia Mesquita her flowers. She’s looked like a powerhouse since turning pro in 2024. The longtime BJJ champion has five submission wins in seven fights and has notched two of those in the UFC. Another win should result in a ranked number next to her name and potentially a fast track to number one contender status.
However, this is sports betting we’re talking here. You have to play the numbers in this game and -575 just feels a little too wide with Mesquita still green. Melissa Mullins isn’t exactly a veteran, but she’s at least seen multiple third rounds which is something we can’t say about Mesquita.
Mullins has a ground game —something I hope that will help her defensively. What I’m more reliant on is her frame, as she’s a big girl for the class and has even missed weight twice. If she can leverage that to at least make Mesquita work, it’ll be interesting to see how Mesquita handles adversity for the first time in her career.
André Lima (-600) vs. Kevin Borjas (+450)
Pick: Andre Lima by Sub +375
Through bites and split decisions, Andre Lima has kept his undefeated record since entering the UFC in 2024. The talented Brazlian will look to keep his “0” in another plus matchup against the struggling Kevin Brojas.
Lima’s grappling has led the way as of late. His last showing saw him notch his first submission win and the fight before saw him land multiple takedowns where he attempted two submissions — almost converting one of those for what could have been two in a row by the now +375 method.
I think we see a similar game plan against the striker Borjas. We also learned that Borjas missed weight today so he could have some issues coming in. I’ll get off the -600 and take the heavy favorite to continue his grappling heavy game plans.
Main Card
Vinicius Oliveira (-290) vs. Andre Fili (+235)
Pick: Andre Fili ML +235
Vinicius Oliveira gained traction last year after beating notable names in the 125 division. His non-stop pressure, walk-down style led to opponents having to back track the entire fight. His hype took a sudden stop when he failed to impress in his first main-event slot against Mario Bautista. The loss also made it clear that his days at 125 are over. Now, he debuts this week up a class at 135.
Like I mentioned, Oliveria likes to walk down his opponents. Something he got away with by being the bigger guy. Weight-bullies we call them. That may not be an option seeing that he’s now average in this new weight class. Not only will he have to potentially change his style, he’s shown legit takedown defense issues in the past. A key weakness that will be explored against larger competition.
Andre Fili has lacked consistency, but he’s shown that he can mix in wrestling and his striking can win him fights as well. Seeing that Oliveria could lose a key aspect to his game at 135, I think this line should be closer, even with Fili on short notice. If Fili survives the first couple shots, there’s no reason to believe he can’t make this fight close.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (+275) vs. Murtazali Magomedov (-350)
Pick: Murtazali Magomedov by TKO or Sub -125
This is a proper test for Murtazali Magomedov seeing that Melsik Baghdasaryanis is a dangerous fast twitch kickboxer. What has gone wrong for Baghdasaryanis is his ability to stay active. The underdog has had more cancelled bookings than fights in the UFC, leading to only four minutes of octagon time in the last three years.
During that off time, Magomedov has mowed through opponents. Now at 10-0, the Kyrgyzstan fighter will look to keep his finishing streak alive as he has five wins by both submission and TKO. Although this line may be a little wide for a debuting fighter, it’s hard to get behind an upset knowing Baghdasaryanis is still fighting ring rust. I will side with the more prime fighter to ground the underdog, where he should eventually find another finish.
Christian Rodriguez (-200) vs. Hyder Amil (+165)
Pick: Hyder Amil +3.5 -140
I’ve been a Christian Rodriguez fader since his move to the 145 weight division. Since he was forced to move up, he’s now 2-3 with those three losses coming against mid-tier talent and the two wins against low-tier fighters. The favorite has a balanced skillset, but he continues to make mental mistakes in fights that end up leading to close calls on the judges scorecards.
Admittedly, I’m not a big fan of Hyder Amil either. His style can be very chaotic and he paid for it against Jamall Emmers in his last showing, where Emmers was able to repeatedly ground Amil.
I believe that performance alone is why we see Rodriguez as the moderate favorite. If you strip that Emmers performance away from Amil’s record, we’d see a closely lined fight, so I’ll take Amil to come in improved and at least take one round from Rodriguez seeing that the favorite tends to give rounds away.
Ion Cutelaba (+250) vs. Navajo Stirling (-310)
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds -160
Navajo Stirling looks to be the next big thing coming out of City Kickboxing. The 9-0 prospect is now 3-0 inside the UFC and finally notched his first TKO win earlier this year. He’ll get the proper veteran treatment against Ion Cutelaba, who is on year 10 with the company at just the age of 32.
Both men have seen their fights hit the cards as of late but to get a playable under number on two heavy hitters inside the smaller Apex cage this week isn’t a bad angle. Before a streak of decisions, Cutelaba went on a twelve fight stretch where only two of his fights saw the final horn. Off that alone, I’ll take this one to see a finish since Stirling has resumed his knockout ways.
Manel Kape (-160) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+135)
Pick: Fight to Go the Distance -105
If you know about these two, you should be just as excited as I am to watch this fight for a possible 25 minutes. Both are technical wizards and anyone looking to become an MMA fighter should study the footwork from both men here.
Already meeting once, Horiguchi got the best of then 24-year-old Kape in 2017. Horiguchi was able to take Kape down late in the third, leading to an arm-triangle finish. 9 years later, we get the rematch, where Kape will be favored to exact revenge.
This is very tough fight to call so naturally that means you go with plus money. However, a side of me does think Horiguchi could be slightly overpriced because of his return bookings against poor UFC talent. In his two returns he faced whatever was left of Amir Albazi, then he defeated a notorious gasser in Tagir Ulanbekov. To Horiguchi’s credit he’s looked great, but you have to think this number wouldn’t be this close if we erase either of those wins.
I will be interested to see if there’s any love for the underdog on fight day to see if we get Kape at a better price, but for now, I’ll take these two to put on a technical masterclass for 25 minutes. Especially since both have been proven to be durable as well.
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