Full UFC 328 Betting Guide: A Stacked Card Built for Betting Slips
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UFC 328 is stacked, featuring rising stars, potential number one contenders, and two title fights to cap off the night.
At the top, we’ll see the payoff between two bitter rivals, Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland. With a card this deep, bettors will have plenty of opportunities to cash slips.
Here’s a full card betting guide for those looking to place bets:
Early Prelims
Clayton Carpenter (+150) vs. Jose Ochoa (-180)
Pick: Ochoa by TKO or DEC -150
Jose Ochoa should be ready to sprawl and brawl knowing Clayton Carpenter has forced wrestling game plans in the past. I expect the same from the underdog after seeing Ochoa struggle with a wrestler in his last fight.
Still, I’ll rely on Ochoa’s Chute Box camp to have him ready for this approach. If Carpenter fails to control this fight on the mat, his limited skillset on the feet will show against a willing striker like Ochoa. A matchup where the gap on the ground is not as wide as it will be on the feet.
Ochoa should lead on damage as long as he’s up.
Baisangur Susurkaev (-700) vs. Djorden Santos (+500)
Pick: Susurkaev by Sub +500
Djorden Santos has solid boxing. But, his willingness to brawl should come back to haunt him here.
TKO is the favored method since the favorite has notched 9 in his 11 wins. However, the wrestling path is clear for Baisangur Susurkaev and he’s shot 14 takedowns in both of his UFC fights thus far.
With a -700 favorite, I’m going toward the value in sub knowing he may opt to wrestle again if this fight starts close on the feet.
Pat Sabatini (-210) vs. William Gomis (+175)
Pick: Gomis ML +175
William Gomis will present a tricky matchup for Pat Sabatini because of how well he manages
distance. The French fighter’s lateral movement will again have to be on point to stay away
from Sabatini’s wrestling pressure.
If Gomis can stay on the outside, he can use his striking to out point a one-dimensional Sabatini. A game plan he’s used in the past. Dog or pass at this price.
Roman Kopylov (+160) vs. Marco Tulio (-190)
Pick: Kopylov +3.5 +105
Great buy low spot on Roman Kopylov. Marco Tulio has a power right hand to watch for. But, if Kopylov can survive the early pressure, he has the kickboxing skills to steal a round and there are durability concerns on Tulio’s side after he was finished for the second time in his career last year.
If we get an uptick in volume from the underdog, winning a round and surviving 15 minutes is more than doable in this matchup.
Prelims
Jim Miller (+250) vs. Jared Gordon (-310)
Pick: Gordon ML for parlays
Jim Miller’s recent form is worth picking on. His recent fights have shown how much Father Time has affected his body and movement. The 42-year-old took the rest of 2025 off after one appearance due to an injury and personal matter.
Two bad signs for a fighter his age. Jared Gordon is well-rounded enough to be better everywhere against this version of Miller. Parlay him with another favorite on the card to fade the aging fighter.
Grant Dawson (-170) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+140)
Pick: Rebecki +140
I see how a smaller Mateusz Rebecki could eventually succumb to the wrestling pressure in this matchup. However, Grant Dawson’s durability concerns and one-dimensional style have put a ceiling over his head.
The favorite’s striking hasn’t improved in his 7 years with the UFC, so I feel comfortable fading him against anyone that may be able to deal with his wrestling for periods.
Especially if I’m getting plus money to do so.
Joel Alvarez (+145) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (-175)
Pick: Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance -115
A combined 82% finish rate in fights featuring Joel Alvarez and Yarslav Amosov. Both bring a dangerous sub game and Alvarez has legit power on the feet.
No matter where this fight ends up, either could be finished at the blink of an eye. Cheering for violence instead of a winner feels right in this matchup.
Ateba Gautier (-1100) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+700)
Pick: u0.5 Rounds +180
This will be Ateba Gautier’s 5th fight with the UFC.
His others seen him at -500, -470, -2500, and -1000. Although he disappointed in his last showing, he gets a step down with Ozzy Diaz.
Most notably, Diaz looks down to brawl. An ideal booking to regain some of the hype lost earlier this year for the hyped prospect, Gautier.
Small sprinkle on Gautier to end this within 2.5 minutes.
Main Card
King Green (-340) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+270)
Pick: Green ML for Parlays
Much respect for Jeremy Stephens. But, I thought his UFC return last year was only for a hometown booking. Now back, it’s clear he’s being set up to eat punches from a much faster and more prime King Green.
Although Green is up and age, his hand speed and movement is still there. His recent dismantling of Daniel Zellhuber is proof of that.
King is a decent parlay piece this week.
Sean Brady (-170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+140)
Pick: Brady by Sub or Decision -120
Joaquin Buckley will be looking to test Brady’s chin after the favorite is coming off his second TKO loss. With that said, Buckley’s recent showing also provided an opening for Sean Brady.
There’s no shame in getting taken down by the long-time champ, Kamaru Usman. But Buckley failing to get-up after going down for most of that fight is bad sign knowing the BJJ level Brady is at.
Brady’s most realistic paths to victory make the most sense at this price.
Alexander Volkov (-170) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+140)
Pick: Volkov ML -170
Waiting for fight day to get better value on Alexander Volkov may be the best way to go about betting this as a number of books are seeing money come in on Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Regardless, I like Volkov here after showing recent improvements with his cardio and frame. He added needed strength to his lower body and has looked better late in fights.
Much credit to Cortes-Acosta for breaking out and getting here, but this feels like his ceiling. The boxer has already disappointed in a big step up spot and I see a similar fight playing out here.
Expect a slow-paced fight with Volkov’s kicks being the difference maker.
Joshua Van (+145) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-175)
Pick: Taira ML -175
Joshua Van has admitted that he’s only been wrestling for a couple years, and that’s not a good sign in this matchup. I’ll admit that Tatsuro Taira needs to improve his head movement if he wants longevity as a champion.
With that said, he may not need it, as his wrestling and back takes look to be top of the class. Van’s athleticism is good enough to keep him up for stretches. But, it only takes one takedown for Taira to lock hooks in and ride a round out on your back.
I agree with the guys in our predictions post. I’ll pay the chalk on the gifted challenger to get the sub or win 3 out of 5 rounds.
Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland (+435)
Pick: Strickland ML +435
I’ll stand alone on an island here. Yes, Khamzat Chimaev looks unstoppable and should win. But the books are only giving us one option in the main event.
Fighters familiar with both have been vocal this week, saying Sean Strickland has a better chance than some think. If he somehow makes Chimaev work hard for takedowns, those cardio concerns could resurface for the champ.
With lines pushing you to guess Chimaev’s method, I’d rather sprinkle on chaos to end the night. I also don’t mind Strickland by TKO +900 with how ugly this feud has got.
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