UFC 322: Main Card Predictions
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It’s fight week, and the welterweight division takes center stage in one of the most intriguing cards of the year. Two-division champion Islam Makhachev moves up to 170 pounds to challenge the surging Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight crown in a matchup that could redefine both men’s legacies.
The co-main event features another superfight between champions, as Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili collide for the women’s flyweight title. With high-stakes bouts up and down the card, featuring names like Sean Brady, Michael Morales, Leon Edwards, and Benoît Saint Denis, this event promises action, storylines, and potential changing of the guard moments across multiple divisions.
We break down every main card fight on the stacked UFC 322 card:
Welterweight Championship
Jack Della Maddalena (c) vs. Islam Makhachev
Lee: I’ll be honest… I wasn’t a believer in Islam Makhachev when the hype first began, but over time, I’ve come to understand it. That said, this could be his toughest test yet.
JDM showed impressive takedown defense and sharp striking against Belal Muhammad, and his size and strength may surprise Islam. Makhachev will rely on his elite ground game. However, his success may depend on how well his striking holds up early. He should look to exchange on the feet before turning to his grappling in the later rounds.
JDM has the tools to defend Islam’s offense, but is his takedown defense good enough to stop Makhachev?
Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via 4th-Round Submission
Evan: There isn’t another fight on the second half of the calendar that has captured my excitement and intrigued me more than this one. There’s so many questions I’ve got about how these two match up stylistically. This simply could come down to Makhachev just being a one-of-one talent that Della Maddalena can’t overcome. However, I’m not sure it will be that cut and dry.
If the leveling up we saw in JDM’s game against Belal Muhammad is for real, we’re in for one hell of a scrap. According to UFC Stats, Jack stifled Muhammad’s wrestling attack holding him to a 33% takedown success rate and gave up only a little over three minutes of control time. The work he’s done with jiujitsu ace Craig Jones has clearly paid off to sure up his defensive grappling.
Having him and UFC featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski, a former Makhachev foe in his corner, for this could end up being hugely beneficial. How he counters the Dagastini star’s variety of takedowns, specifically in the clinch, will be fascinating to watch. Whether it’s utilizing the octopus guard, De La Riva guard, granby rolls, funk rolls, or various sweeps, JDM has multiple tools at his disposal to choose from.
On the flip side of things, it’s going to be interesting to see how Islam handles the jump up in weight and what his approach will be from a striking perspective. There’s such a contrast between his calculated kickboxing style and JDM’s frenetic boxing. The Aussie lands a whopping 6.84 significant strikes per minute and utilizes a diverse shot selection. What Islam does to combat that will be crucial to his success here. All in all, I’m going to take a flier on Della Maddalena in this one.
I think way too many people are sleeping on his chances to pull off the upset. Islam’s talent again might be undeniable in the end, but I think he’s vastly underestimating the challenge JDM poses.
Official Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision
Women’s Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Zhang Weili
Lee: If this fight had taken place a few years back, my pick would have been Valentina Shevchenko easily. Since Zhang Weili has developed a ground game to go with her striking, she has become an outstanding fighter. Both fighters bring unique styles to the octagon, so this blend of striking and wrestling from both sides sets the stage for a dynamic battle.
Weili will look to use her aggressive and versatile attack to negate Shevchenko’s Grade-A striking and tactical approach. Cardio will not be an issue as both went the distance in their last fights. Can Weili become a two-division champion or will Shevchenko solidify her legacy?
Official Prediction: Zhang Weili via Split Decision
Evan: I’ve got to be honest, I’m not nearly as hyped for this one as I probably should be. I just have a gut feeling we’re going to get a technical thriller or an absolute dud of a fight. There’s no question these two ladies are both legends of the game and deserve all the flowers. They’re extremely well rounded, have skills everywhere, and legacies that are already fully cemented.
This could come down to timing, where Weili is seemingly ascended to the best version of herself while Shevchenko might be on the down slope of her illustrious career. If Zhang’s physicality holds up at 125, matched with the improvements she’s made, then Valentina might be in trouble. This is a true coin flip matchup though for me, where I don’t have a strong lean either way. I’ll pick Shevchenko to win by the slightest of margins.
Official Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko via Unanimous Decision
Welterweight Bout
Sean Brady (2) vs. Michael Morales (8)
Lee: Sean Brady will look to deploy his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu against Michael Morales. Brady is known for his top-level dominant ground game and technical expertise. Morales will need to show he can defend the takedowns. This will allow him to use his remarkable reach advantage and high-volume striking.
Morales’ 89% takedown defense will be tested against Brady’s 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. Brady has shown he’s comfortable in high-pressure situations while Morales’ will and grit have not been tested. Experienced grappler versus young, hard-hitting striker.
Official Prediction: Sean Brady via 3rd-Round Submission
Evan: Outside of the main event, this is easily the matchup I’m most excited for on this loaded card. I genuinely love this fight, but sort of hate that these two are facing one another. Lee’s assessment is spot on though, this really boils down to who controls the takedown battle.
If Brady is able to constantly push Morales to the cage, and secure takedowns, it’s going to be a long night for the Ecuadorian contender. Sean’s positional control, transitions, and grappling top game is absolutely suffocating. On the other hand, if Michael can shut down his offensive wrestling, the script will flip.
Behind his insane seven inch reach advantage, and game changing power, he could end up bludgeoning Sean. I will not be surprised in the slightest if he steamrolls the Philly product early and adds another KO to his résumé. Ultimately though, I’m going to favor the more proven commodity in Brady. I think he will drown Morales on the mat and put his 89% takedown defense rate through the ringer.
Official Prediction: Sean Brady via 2nd-Round Submission or TKO
Welterweight Bout
Leon Edwards (4) vs. Carlos Prates (9)
Lee: As fans, we can only hope this stellar matchmaking delivers inside the Octagon. Carlos Prates brings stance switches and explosive knockout power against Leon Edwards’ technical and methodical striking.
Edwards must control the range and use his kicks to keep Prates at bay, while Prates needs to close the distance to unleash his power. Will Prates mix in his grappling to test Edwards? It’s a clash of styles with Edwards seeking redemption and Prates aiming to keep climbing the welterweight ranks.
Official Prediction: Carlos Prates via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I don’t mean to pick on my guy Lee, but I don’t really buy that Prates is the better grappler here. There is no substantial evidence to support that claim either. Both men are BJJ black belts, and Carlos has shown to have nearly non-existent offensive wrestling ability thus far in his UFC run.
I do agree though that Edwards does have his hands full with trying to deal with the Brazilian’s striking arsenal. Prates’ versatility on the feet, KO power, and ranginess could give the former champion big problems. He should be able to pressure Edwards even from a distance because of his length.
With that being said, I do think Ian Garry laid out a solid blueprint in his victory over Carlos. He showed how to neutralize his attack, and Leon can replicate that himself, given his skill set. I’m going to hesitantly take Edwards in this one. This is somewhat his last stand at remaining a championship threat at 170.
Official Prediction: Leon Edwards via Unanimous Decision
Lightweight Bout
Beneil Dariush (9) vs. Benoît Saint Denis (13)
Lee: Beneil Dariush is one of the lightweight division’s most technically sound fighters. His exceptional defense along with his ability to blend his striking and grappling makes him a tough opponent. Saint Denis has to maximize his forward pressure and diverse finishing ability to force Dariush to fight off his back foot.
Dariush lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.61, compared to Saint Denis, who takes 4.19 per minute with only a 42% defense rate. Can Dariush’s veteran composure withstand Saint Denis’ relentless forward pressure?
Official Prediction: Benoît Saint Denis via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: This fight is tricky for me because BSD is definitely the more aggressive fighter of the two and possesses potent offensive firepower. However, as Lee pointed out he still gets hit a ton and Dariush can crack on the feet. I also just feel Beneil has slicker, more technically well rounded skills overall.
If he can manage to weather the storm and stay composed under the fire Saint Denis will throw at him, I could really see him outclassing or putting the Frenchman’s lights out. However, I’ll pick BSD here on the basis of his relentless attack being too much for Dariush to handle, and the lightweight veteran’s tendency to be sort of chinny.
Official Prediction: Benoît Saint Denis via 1st or 2nd-Round TKO
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