UFC 328: Main Card Predictions

Bad blood. High stakes. And a card that feels like it could shift multiple divisions overnight.

The UFC returns with a loaded lineup headlined by a combustible middleweight title clash between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, a fight that has already delivered chaos before a single punch has been thrown. But it doesn’t stop there.

A potential changing of the guard is brewing at flyweight, heavyweight contenders are jockeying for position in a murky title picture, and a series of make-or-break matchups round out a main card built for violence and consequence.

From grudge-fueled intensity to technical chess matches, this card has a little bit of everything. Check out our UFC 328 main card predictions:

Middleweight Championship

Khamzat Chimaev (c) vs. Sean Strickland (3)

Lee: Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland’s feud reaches its peak in a middleweight title main event. If the fight matches the intensity of the trash talk, fans are in for a scrap.

Strickland is a sizable underdog, but believes his past training with Chimaev at Xtreme Couture gives him an edge. Expect him to rely on cardio and pressure, while the champ looks to wrestle early and smother his offense.

If it reaches the later rounds, Chimaev’s gas tank could be tested. Can his grappling hold up against Strickland’s volume and pace?

Official Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev via 3rd-Round Submission

Evan: I’m about to ramble here, so to our readers please bear with me. I’m very conflicted about this matchup personally. On one hand, this feels like the biggest fight the UFC has booked this year. They haven’t had a grudge match or bad blood feud to this magnitude probably since Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov’s showdown at UFC 229 back in 2018.

So I think it’s actually a good thing for the promotion to get a pairing like this that can ignite the fan base one way or another, they’ve honestly desperately needed it.

However, I’ve found the build up and trash talk between these two has already entered pretty ugly territory. The promotion from Sean is mainly being utilized to appeal to and target edgelords, trolls, and incels. Strickland has resorted to his usual bigotry to sell the fight, relying on making constant Islamophobic remarks towards the champion.

He’s also even gone as far as claiming he would shoot Chimaev, if his team makes him uncomfortable. Combining that energy with the fact that Khamzat being a loose cannon himself, the recipe for disaster during fight week is extremely high. Especially too with how the UFC has failed miserably with their security protocols in the past, things could go awry in a hurry.

To the fight itself though, Chimaev is without a doubt the more talented fighter here. He’s a superior athlete, better grappler, more explosive, and has the heavier hands of the two. I’m also not sure there’s a scarier person to deal with in the first two rounds in the entire sport than him. Frankly, Sean has his hands full.

Strickland’s tricky and skilled though himself. If he’s able to survive those opening rounds, he’s got a game that potentially can give Chimaev some real issues. He’s physical, his defensive grappling is stout, and his death by a 1,000 cuts style of striking, is tough to figure out.

Also, if his pre-fight attacks have struck a chord with Khamzat, that could lead to the Chechen champion fighting emotionally reckless, making poor decisions, and not being resourceful with his energy output, which would be very beneficial for Strickland’s chances here.

I’m not betting or picking against Chimaev though. I think we see a fight that plays out similarly to his win over DDP. Where it’s dominant and one sided for the most part, but Strickland is game enough to not get finished.

I believe Sean will even be much more competitive than Dricus was. But, he’s still going to get run over by Khamzat regardless.

Official Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev via Unanimous Decision

Flyweight Championship 

Joshua Van (c) vs. Tatsuro Taira (3)

Lee: Joshua Van defends his flyweight title against rising contender Tatsuro Taira. Taira enters with confidence and a strong finishing instinct, while Van will look to keep the fight standing and apply early pressure.

This matchup could turn into a slugfest or a technical battle at range. But, the grappling edge leans toward Taira, who will test Van’s ground game. Both are dangerous finishers, making this a tough one to call.

Official Prediction: Tatsuro Taira via Unanimous Decision

Evan: I think we’re entering a golden age at flyweight with both Taira and Van at the forefront of this new era. It’s become one of the best divisions in the entire sport, having an influx of intriguing contenders sitting atop it.

I believe that’s going to lead to a game of hot potato being played with the belt at 125 pounds over the next couple of years or so. Which is why this is easily the fight on the card I’m most excited for. There’s no way that given how these two stylistically match up, that this isn’t a barn burner. 

Joshua Van is one of the better pocket boxers currently in MMA, and has relentless combinations. According to UFC Stats, he lands a staggering 8.84 significant strikes per minute. Van mixes his shot selection up well, throws compact punches, and is comfortable under fire.

The antithesis to that though is, he has a willingness to take damage and gets hit a ton. He absorbs 6.39 significant strikes per minute. Eventually, something’s got to give there one way or another.

Tatsuro Taira on the other hand, might not have the potency as a puncher or overall striking arsenal to exploit the holes in Van’s defense. But he also is comfortable getting into a slugfest and clearly has the grappling edge.

The Japanese contender has a vicious mount, slick submissions, and nasty ground and pound. If this fight enters that realm at all, Taira without question will have the advantage.

All in all, I expect this fight to be filled with great exchanges on the feet and thrilling scrambles on the mat. For me it comes down to how much Tatsuro can put Joshua’s 81% takedown defense through the paces and compete in the striking.

I’m going to back the challenger here, as I believe Taira will be able to hang with Van on the feet, even hurt him at times, use his size advantage in the clinch, and score takedowns. Once there, I see him drowning Van with his dangerous top game.

I’m picking Tatsuro to get a late finish and make history as the first Japanese fighter to become a UFC champion.

Official Prediction: Tatsuro Taira 4th-Round TKO or Submission

Heavyweight Bout

Alexander Volkov (2) vs. Waldo Cortés Acosta (4)

Lee: Alexander Volkov meets Waldo Cortés-Acosta in a heavyweight clash. Volkov is three inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage, and will look to control range and pick Waldo apart.

Cortés-Acosta brings solid boxing, 49% striking accuracy, and 57% takedown defense, along with back-to-back first-round knockouts. Still, Volkov represents a clear step up in competition. Waldo’s power is real. But, he struggled against Sergei Pavlovich, a similar build to Volkov.

Will experience or momentum prevail on fight night?

Official Prediction: Alexander Volkov via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Evan: As bad as the UFC’s heavyweight division currently is, this is an extremely consequential matchup for the title picture moving forward.

Between there being no timeline as to when Tom Aspinall will return, Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane fighting for an interim belt at the White House next month, and the recent emergence of Josh Hokit, heavyweight is suddenly murky at the top.

Both Cortés Acosta and Volkov now have the chance here to solidify themselves amongst that group, staking their claim to a not so distant championship opportunity.

To the fight itself, on paper it feels like Volkov is the better fighter of the two. I think he’s more skilled and versatile than Waldo, in almost every aspect of the game. However, Salsa Boy is 8-1 in his last nine Octagon appearances and has finished his last three opponents via KO or TKO.

The dude just keeps finding ways to win, even with a somewhat limited skill set. Volkov simply might outclass him. But, I’ll continue to roll with the hot hand in Cortés Acosta to keep his win streak alive.

Official Prediction: Waldo Cortés Acosta via Unanimous Decision

Welterweight Bout

Sean Brady (6) vs. Joaquin Buckley (9)

Lee: Sean Brady faces Joaquin Buckley in a high-stakes welterweight tilt, with both fighters coming off devastating losses. SPOILER ALERT: This is my pick for Fight of the Night.

Buckley is known for explosive finishes (71% via KO/TKO) and strong work in the clinch. But, Brady will test his 72% takedown defense with elite chain-wrestling and a dangerous submission game. Buckley is dangerous everywhere and sometimes will mix in the occasional takedown.

Brady doesn’t want this to be a standup war but trying to close the distance against a Grade A counter puncher could open him up to take some shots. Brady is the more complete fighter, but Buckley is the most explosive of the two.

Official Prediction: Sean Brady via Split Decision

Evan: This is about as clear of a make or break contendership fight as there is. Both Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley were right on the cusp of potentially getting title shots. But, they fumbled just short of the goal line in high profile matchups against Kamaru Usman and Michael Morales respectively. Now they face one another in a bid to stay afloat in the ever crowded shark tank that is the welterweight division.

If Sean can consistently push Joaquin to the cage, get body or waist locks, and get this down to the mat, this is his fight to lose. Whereas if Buckley can control the center of the octagon, downblock effectively, and punish Brady off the clinch breaks, it will swing the bout into his favor.

Ultimately though, I’m not all that confident in either guy given they’re so deficient in each other’s strengths. But I’ll side with Buckley’s dynamic striking, explosiveness, and athleticism to come through here.

Official Prediction: Joaquin Buckley via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Lightweight Bout

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens 

Lee: UFC veterans King Green (29 fights) and Jeremy Stephens (35 appearances) square off in a clash of experience. Green will look to use his varied arsenal, and potentially his underrated grappling, to neutralize Stephens’ elite knockout power.

The three-round format favors Stephens, who has struggled with pace in longer fights. Green’s 53% striking accuracy contrasts with Stephens’ 40% power-heavy approach, setting up explosive exchanges. Will Stephens’ power eclipse Green’s versatility?

Official Prediction: King Green via Unanimous Decision 

Evan: There’s been some pushback to this fight being on the main card. But I honestly think it fits perfectly as the opener. I understand a King Green–Jeremy Stephens matchup isn’t the most high stakes, important bout in the world, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad fight. We’ve got two aging, action oriented veterans competing in what should be a fun scrap.

Either Jeremy’s going to take advantage of King’s hands down, reckless style and send his chin into orbit. Or Green will pick apart Stephens behind his awkward, elusive, defense and angles, while talking shit to him the entire time.

Both scenarios should lead to an exciting and enjoyable watch for fans regardless of the outcome.

Official Prediction: King Green via Unanimous Decision

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