Full UFC Macau Betting Guide: Best Bets for UFC’s Return to China
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UFC Macau is stacked, featuring rising prospects, dangerous finishers, closely lined matchups, and a pivotal main event to cap off the night.
At the top, possible number one contender Song Yadong takes on former longtime flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in a high-stakes clash with major divisional implications. With 12 fights on the card, bettors will have plenty of opportunities to cash slips.
Here’s a full card betting guide for those looking to place bets:
Prelims
Loma Lookboonmee (+110) vs. Jaqueline Amorim (-130)
Pick: Loma Lookboonmee ML +110
Jaqueline Amorim came into the UFC with some hype. Unfortunately, she’s been exposed as a one-dimensional grappler with poor cardio. The BJJ blackbelt gassed out early as a -500 favorite in her most recent showing. A bad sign for someone who needs to push a heavy wrestling pace if her opponent continues to work up.
Although Loma Lookboonmee comes with her own faults, it’s clear that she’s the more capable striker of the two and does have wrestling to counter those who solely rely on grappling. Because Amorim has no striking, the underdog should be in a good spot to sprawl and brawl.
Now that she’s entered plus money territory, Lookboonmee is a solid bet seeing that all the damage upside is with her.
Angela Hill (+180) vs. Jingnan Xiong (-220)
Pick: FGTD for parlays
We have solid parlay pieces this week, starting with Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong hitting the cards.
As exciting as Hill can be to watch, she’s a pain for bettors due to her inconsistency. Her close to .500 record is proof of how volatile it can be to bet on her. I’m also not a fan of her astonishing 14 losses by decision. She continues to be competitive at the age of 41, but recent performances shows Overkill Hill may be in her last years with the company.
In her first year with the company, Xiong will look to impress in her debut. The longtime ONE champion made the jump after the company shut down their women’s strawweight division. Before her release, she dominated all competition, only losing once in an 8-year stretch.
Xiong looks to be mid-to-high tier UFC-level so she’s the pick against the aging Hill. However, I’m not a fan of her only having one fight in the last four years. Also, she’s just three years younger than Hill at 38.
Inconsistency vs. unknowns is exactly what bettors should avoid. Just take a Hill fight to GTD while you still can.
Rei Tsuruya (-230) vs. Luis Gurule (+190)
Pick: Rei Tsuruya ML AND o1.5 rounds -115
Rei Tsuruya still has to show less reliance on his wrestling. But, this looks like a good rebound spot after his first career loss to Joshua Van last year.
Luis Gurule doesn’t have the power to keep the favorite off of him for 15 minutes. Although he has a wrestling base, Gurule has been briefly taken down by lesser guys in his short stint with the company. The underdog is also smaller for the class.
I’m expecting Tsuruya to spend some moments on the feet before getting to his high paced wrestling attack. He should eventually slow Gurule down at some point, leading to constant take downs and heavy control time.
I like the favorite by unanimous decision or late stoppage.
Aoriqileng (+280) vs. Cody Haddon (-360)
Pick: Cody Haddon -3.5 -165
Everyone is on Cody Haddon and it’s not hard to see why. The Australian prospect is as well rounded as they come and he’s shown great cardio to compete wherever the fight goes.
Aoriqileng proved in his last fight that he’s always live for a flash TKO, but his record tells the story of his ceiling. He’s good enough to beat lower tier competition, but he’ll struggle with legit names in the class.
Here, I think Haddon will take the path of least resistance by using his wrestling to control Aoriqileng. For that reason, I do like sub at +500, but I’ll take the safer approach and just take him to cover this spread number with either a stoppage or clear decision win on the cards.
Meng Ding (-130) vs. Jose Henrique (+110)
Pick: Pass
I’m not sure why these two were brought in. Meng Ding joins an elite club of having 40+ fights as a debuting fighter, while Jose Henrique hasn’t even cracked 10. Neither look UFC-level and both lost on their appearances on the Contender Series.
Don’t buy into UFC exploiting cheap labor. Pass on betting this.
Yi Sak Lee (+140) vs. Luis Felipe Diaz (-165)
Pick: Pass
Sadly, the card doesn’t get much better with this matchup at 185.
Yi Sak Lee only has a two-minute highlight tape for you to get familiar with him and somehow the footage is still unimpressive. On the other side, Luis Felipe Diaz is a BJJ blackbelt who doesn’t have the wrestling or cardio to use it. The Brazilian’s record is filled with nobodies, and he even has a recent fight flagged for record padding.
Like the previous matchup, you should pass on putting any amount of money on this fight.
Main Card
Alex Perez (-140) vs. Sumudaerji (+120)
Pick: Sumudaerji ML +120
I’m expecting Alex Perez to get to his wrestling in early since Sumudaerji has struggled in that department. However, Sumudaerji has improved his scramble game after being subbed in three of his four UFC losses. He even debuted some offensive wrestling of his own in his last fight earlier this year.
If the underdog continues to improve his get up game, a stand-up fight should favor him, as he’s the longer and more diverse striker. Perez has solid calf kicks, but Sumudaerji’s distance management and speed should lead to big moments for the home country fighter.
I see him as the clear value side in what should be an exciting fight to start the main card.
Jake Matthews (-370) vs. Carlston Harris (+290)
Pick: Under 2.5 rounds -135
This is primarily a fade of Carlston Harris coming in on short notice. The 38-year-old is sub or bust and his durability seems to be gone. After being knocked out by Santiago Ponzinibbio last year, it’s safe to say the underdog has entered automatic fade territory and the books agree.
Jake Matthews has been inconsistent in his many years with the UFC. However, he’s still only 31 and has a solid base as a BJJ blackbelt with solid boxing. Although he should be better about everywhere here, I’ll take the under at a playable price since Matthews also has durability concerns.
Kai Asakura (-280) vs. Cameron Smotherman (+225)
Pick: Kai Asakura ML for parlay
In a must win spot for Kai Asakura, Cameron Smotherman should be a good matchup for the former RIZIN champ. Smotherman doesn’t do anything well enough to pose a threat. He’s an okay striker with solid body shots. Other than that, he doesn’t excel anywhere for Asakura to be at a disadvantage.
Asakura will be the faster striker and most importantly, he won’t have to worry about defending takedowns. I also like his move up to 135 seeing that the majority of his success came at batamweight. Asakura is another solid parlay piece this week.
Sergei Pavlovich (-600) vs. Tallison Teixeira (+450)
Pick: Sergei Pavlovich ML AND under 1.5 rounds -135
If you didn’t watch Tallison Teixeira‘s last fight against Tai Tuivasa, don’t. The lumbering big man displayed everything wrong with the current state of the heavyweight division.
He has five minutes max of cardio, sloppy striking combinations, and he keeps his head sky high. The Brazilian can be dangerous in the right matchup. But, his knockout loss to Derrick Lewis stripped any ceiling away from the then-undefeated fighter.
Now, he gets another power puncher. A more prime one at that. Sergei Pavlovich was once the boogeyman in the division before two straight losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov.
Because Teixeira begs to be hit, this matchup should be a good spot for Pavlovich to throw his name back in with the top guys in the class. Pavlovich by TKO within 1.5.
Mingyang Zhang (-250) vs. Alonzo Menifeld (+205)
Pick: Mingyang Zhang by TKO -135
Mingyang Zhang headlined the last event in China. There, he was upset by Johnny Walker after Walker’s lateral movement and calf kicks led to a second-round stoppage.
Zhang can be exposed because of his limited experience late in fights. Problem with that is Alonzo Menifeld doesn’t have the cardio to take advantage. On top of that, aggressive power punchers have been the underdog’s downfall recently.
With Menifeld being stopped in three of his last five, Zhang should be in a good spot to spark him early. Zhang by TKO in round 1 at plus money is also worth looking at.
Song Yadong (-600) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+450)
Pick: Song Yadong ML AND over 2.5 rounds -145
Deiveson Figueiredo‘s move to 135 has completely unraveled. He’s now 2-3 at bantamweight, with the three losses being clear signs he won’t be able to compete with the top names in the division.
He’ll get another top name in Song Yadong. The home country fighter is ranked 5th in the division and could’ve been higher if his recent razor close decision loss against Sean O’Malley went his way.
As the price suggests, Song should roll this version of Figgy. Song’s hand speed should be the difference and the favorite has a ground game to deal with Figgy’s diminishing wrestling. I will show the long time Flyweight champ some respect since he still has proven to be durable, but the later this goes, the uglier it should look.
Song should dominate on the cards or win by late stoppage to send the Macau crowd home happy.
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