Full UFC 329 Betting Guide: How to Bet Conor McGregor’s Return

International Fight Week is amongst us! UFC 329 headlines a long weekend of events in Las Vegas.

At the top, we have the return of the most popular MMA fighter of all time, Conor McGregor. Looking to spoil his return will be the former BMF champion and a legend in the sport as well, Max Holloway.

Leading up to their highly anticipated clash will be a lineup of future contenders in their respective classes. With so much talent on the card, let’s take a look at the matchups and where the betting value lies.

Prelims

Cody Durden (+205) vs. Alessandro Costa (-250)

Pick: Alesssandro Costa ML and Over 0.5 Rounds -165

The favorite Alessandro Costa returns for the third time in 2026, filling in for the injured Ode Osbourne. He’ll take on Cody Durden, who will also step into the octagon for the third time this year.

Durden had a much needed win in his last fight, breaking a four fight losing streak. In those last five, he was the underdog, coming in as high as +475 in his recent fight against Jafel Filho.

Even though Durden is +205 here, I still think that win against Filho has resulted in some unwarranted respect by the bookmakers. Costa has looked to be in peak form recently and he doesn’t lack anywhere. The Brazilian has finishing upside no matter where the fight goes and his cardio edge will be key against Durden.

Seeing that Durden often declines as the fight goes when facing legit competition, I’m using the over 0.5 rounds to get a discount on Costa since I have a hard time on calling how Costa will get this done.

Ryan Gandra (-130) vs. Zachary Reese (+110)

Pick: Fight Starts Round 2 -106

Middleweights take the stage next when Ryan Gandra takes on Zachary Reese. Gandra is on fight two with the company after debuting earlier this year, while Reese is making his 8th walk with the UFC. Reese comes in with a 4-3-1 record since debuting in 2023.

I had my eye on Reese when he came in but he has failed to take the next step. The Texas native has a legit frame for the class and solid athleticism. He’s even been given plus matchups to show that he could make some noise. Still, his skills have failed to impress as his striking slows and his wrestling is average. He’s at least shown that he can be well-rounded, but I haven’t seen anything to think he can be someone to watch for.

With that said, Gandra was originally overpriced in this matchup which is why we’ve seen money coming in on Reese this week. Reese at one point was in the +170 range before the line pushed toward him. I agree with the movement since Gandra seems to be nothing more than power puncher who’s willing to brawl.

Since we missed the line movement on Reese and my confidence is low, I’ll take a stab on this fight having stinker potential and take it start round 2 at a near pick em’ price. It’s possible we could see these two stare at each other for a round or Reese’s wrestling attempts could lead to slower paced start.

Damian Pinas (-210) vs. César Almeida (+175)

Pick: Cesar Almeida ML +175

Middleweight continue the show when 24-year-old prospect Damian Pinas will take on the long-time kickboxer Cesar Almeida.

Pinas finished Wes Schultz in the first round of their fight earlier this year. A fight that was clearly one way traffic for the two and a half minutes it lasted. Before that, Pinas earned a contract on the Contender Series. Also a first round TKO, which is the theme of his career, only seeing a second round just twice in his young career.

At 7-2, Almeida has less MMA fights than Pinas. However, Almeida does have 57 kickboxing matches which included a trilogy with the legendary Alex Pereira. His 3-2 record with the UFC has exposed his flaws and lowered his ceiling, but the 38-year-old’s striking is still something to respect.

Since Pinas has shown zero interest in a ground game, it looks like Almeida will get the exact style of fight he needs. It’s also reasonable to think Almeida will be the better fighter late after lasting thee rounds multiple times inside the UFC. Seeing that Pinas is still green and hasn’t seen a third round, I like this price on Almeida to see if he can compete and take over late.

Tracy Cortez (-105) vs. Cong Wang (-115)

Pick: Tracy Cortez ML -105

Cong Wang will look to continue her hype train when she takes on UFC veteran Tracy Cortez. Wang was signed to the UFC in 2024 and has gone 4-1 since. The Chinese fighter most notably has a kickboxing win over the current 125 pound champion Valentina Shevchenko, so matchmakers have gave her opportunities to up her profile in what could be a potential rematch.

Speaking of opportunities, Cortez has failed her recent step-ups in competition after losing to Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield in recent years. With that said, those are her only two losses inside the UFC, as she’s won her other six appearances and still has flashes of being a potential name to watch for in the class.

After seeing Wang struggle on the ground in her last fight, I thought Cortez was going to come in a slight favorite knowing Cortez does best when she can get to her wrestling. What’s also important is that Cortez also has the boxing to set up her entries. Her combination of both wrestling and striking will make for the toughest fight Wang has had thus far, so I do like getting Cortez at plus money after seeing Wang slow down significantly once grounded.

Luke Riley (-275) vs. Kai Kamaka III (+225)

Pick: Luke Riley by Decision +120

The 13-0 Luke Riley will be his undefeated record on the line when he takes on Kai Kamaka. Riley is now 2-0 in the UFC and has shown flashes of having a high level of kickboxing. 9 of his 13 wins have come by TKO and at just 27, another great performance could open up big opportunities for him in the next two years.

On the flip side, the journey man Kamaka is now on his second run with the UFC after signing back earlier this year. After decent runs in Bellator and PFL, he’ll be looking to build on his win in that first fight back with the UFC last April.

Many have labeled Riley as a parlay buster this week as some are not 100% sold on the favorite yet. Although that may be true, Kamaka hasn’t looked to be anything special to be confident in either. The deciding factor to me will be striking speed, as Riley will be first to the punch much more consistently than Kamaka. I see that being the difference in 15 minute fight where Riley gets his hand raised, 30-27.

Cody Garbrandt (+325) vs. Adrian Yanez (-425)

Pick: Adrian Yanez ML for parlays

Former champion Cody Garbrandt is on fight six of his recent comeback. From 2017 to 2021, Garbrandt was knocked out four times in six fights. Since then, he’s gone 3-2 after taking 2022 off. The underdog will now take on another veteran, Adrian Yanez, in what could be an exciting fight on the prelims.

Garbrandt has avoided a chin test since returning, but it’s been to a fault. That fault being poor output in almost all of his showings. His last fight saw him only land 28 significant strikes, and before that he landed the same amount. The ghosts of his past has resulted in these low volume efforts, which is a bad sign seeing that Yanez averages about six significant strikes a minute, almost doubling the amount Garbrant puts out.

Most bettors have been betting on Garbrandt’s chin to fail him since he returned and I think this is the spot. Yanez has heavy hands and will not be shy about chasing Garbrandt for however long is needed. With that said, I’d only like it at plus money so if you can find it, take it. If not, feel safe adding Yanez to parlays in what should be an easy win for the hard hitting 32-year-old.

Gable Stevenson (-2500) vs. Elisha Ellison (+1100)

Pick: Elisha Ellison ML +1100

No need for a breakdown on either because I can hear you as you read this. “Dontation”. I get it!

But if we’re talking straight sports betting, how can you not bet Elisha Ellison in this crazy sport? Not only can anything happen, we’re talking about a fighter with no legit MMA experience going against one with at least an amateur career and already has one walk with the UFC already. Inside the most volatile division as well? You have to sprinkle, right?

You can take all the angles you want in playing the juiced prop market, but I’m about probability, and with all things considered in this matchup, getting Ellison to win when he’s only given a 8% chance is the best bet on the board in this matchup. Half unit to win five is worth.

Robert Whittaker (-135) vs. Nikita Krylov (+115)

Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds -115

The Reaper, Robert Whittaker, makes his debut at 205 after spending his entire career at either 170 or 185. This move comes after a two fight losing streak to Reinier de Ridder and Khamzat Chimaev. Turning 36 this year, Whittaker will be looking to quickly climb the ranks in his new class, as the division is currently wide open.

His introduction to light heavyweight will be Nikita Krylov. Krylov is every bit of a 205’er. He’ll have three inches of height and four inches of reach on Whittaker. The Russian fighter is known to be well rounded, so he’ll be a proper gate keeper for anyone looking to level up in the class.

Both fighters deserve a ton of respect but I’m not high on either in their current form. Although Krylov looked great in his last fight, he facing a fighter who continued to spam one punch and Krylov’s past before that features injuries and KO losses. On Whittaker’s side, it’s apparent that he has slowed in recent year and most notably his cardio and durability has declined.

Combined, we’ve seen Whittaker and Krylov finished 14 times so I do like a play on the under knowing either could be hurt by something big. I also don’t mind a play on fight to end by TKO at even money. My lean is Whittaker’s speed to lead to the finish, but the under price is good enough to just bet on violence.

Main Card

King Green (+120) vs. Terrance McKinney (-145)

Pick: Terrance McKinney by TKO +180

This is an excellent booking by the matchmakers. Terrance McKinney is known for his fights ending quickly and King Green will welcome a brawl. It’s the perfect opener for the main card and it’s a shame we’ll only see it once.

I will not hide my hand —these two have been long-time fades for me. McKinney’s style is a major red flag due to how sloppy he gets when fights slow down. To me, it feels like McKinney has a mental block when put in tough situations. As soon as he’s hit hard or the fight doesn’t go his way, he leaves openings and ends up paying horribly for them.

On the other side, Green’s style is everything I pick on. His hands are down by his knees for the entirety of the fight and he’s been knocked out six times because of it. To his credit, his longevity is undeniable now, but this type of style is simply a live and die by the sword approach.

I originally put Green by TKO on my board for this week. I have since flipped after further review of the prices on the books. As much as McKinney scares me, his relentless pressure could end up being a good thing against the nonchalant Green. I’ll side with the youth at this price.

Brandon Royval (+180) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-220)

Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision +140

Lone’er Kavanagh has now been labeled as the name to watch at flyweight after an impresive performance on short notice against Brandon Moreno earlier this year. What’s most impressive about that win is that he was off a TKO loss to Charles Johnson. Now, the UFC is looking to up his stock with a main card booking on International Fight Week.

He’ll get a proper dance partner in Brandon Royval. Royval gained almost unanimous support for Fight of the Year in 2025 when he took on the current flyweight champion Joshua Van. Royval also has other high volume fights that has made him a top name in the class.

I was a little put off by how Royval lost his last fight to Manuel Kape. There’s no shame in losing to the future title contender, but getting put away in just three minutes is something to worry about. Royval’s durability has worked hand in hand with his volume, so if one of them is gone, so is the other.

With that said, I don’t view Kavanagh as a power puncher so I like this number on him to out class Royval for 15 minutes. The favorites footwork is excellent and he uses it to set up shots from different angles. In a three round fight, I think Kavanagh’s technique is the difference, so I’ll take him to win two out of three.

Cory Sandhagen (-145) vs. Mario Bautista (+120)

Pick: Fight to Be Won by Unanimous Decision -115

Rematch time. The first meeting between Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista went down in 2019 where Sandhagen walked away with a submission victory. Seven years later, they’ll meet again as improved fighters.

As a bettor, there are certain fights I’ll see and I’ll instantly say “fight goes the distance” and then have no interest in them after. This is clearly one of them.

Sandhagen’s recent stoppages were due to an injury and a bad cut. Over half of Bautista’s wins have come from the scorecards. Of course, the books are hip to this so an over play isn”t there, but head to Draft Kings and find this prop under “fight props” to get a discount on this one being a clear decision win for either.

Benoit Saint Denis (-135) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+115)

Pick: Paddy Pimblett ML +115

One half of the first main event of the year, Paddy Pimblett returns to take on the intimidating Benoit Saint Denis. Another example of excellent matchmaking, as both will push forward in what could be a car crash of a fight.

I’m still not sold on Saint Denis to justify the favorite number in this matchup. After two straight losses in 2024 stopped his progress, the French fighter has been given plus matchups to rebuild his rep. He walked in the underdog in what turned out to be a tailored made matchup against Mauricio Ruffy, but the others around that saw him as the clear favorite against lesser competition.

Pimblett’s ceiling also lowered after his loss as a favorite earlier this year, but many were impressed by his durability. Not exactly a reason to bet on a guy, but it’s good to know his chin can hold up in a class filled with finishers.

Because Sant Denis is known more for his wrestling, I think this plays into the type of fight Pimblett needs to bounce back. Saint Denis is flat footed as a striker and can give up his neck when shooting. Two things that will allow Pimblett to get back to the mat where he belongs.

If the fight ultimately plays out on the feet, I’d argue it’s a pick em’ at best with the slight edge to Pimblett because of that durability edge. Ultimately, I like the plus money price on Pimblett knowing how flawed Saint Denis can be.

Conor McGregor (+170) vs. Max Holloway (-205)

Pick: Max Holloway -5.5 -160

The man is back. The most important MMA fighter of all time, Conor McGregor returns after a five year hiatus. McGregor’s actions did the sport no favors while he was away, but his notoriety elevates the card and the sport as a whole, so he’ll always be welcomed back.

Who hasn’t been missing is Max Holloway. Holloway has fought eight times since McGregor last entered the octagon, facing names like Alexander Volkanovski, Justin Gaethje, Ilia Topuria, Dustin Poirier, and Charles Oliveira.

Sorry to be short in the main even breakdown, but the conversation stops there for me. Ring rust is a real thing and the fight being at 170 tells me McGregor won’t be in prime shape to compete for 25 minutes. Out of those eight fights Holloway has had, six of them have gone five rounds and he’s yet to slow in any of them that were purely striking.

Longer the fight goes, the worse it should look for McGregor. I like Holloway to cover the spread and to possibly get a late finish, sending McGregor back into his next retirement.

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