UFC 329: Main Card Predictions
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Conor McGregor is finally back.
After nearly five years away from the Octagon, one of the biggest stars in combat sports returns to headline UFC 329 against former BMF champion Max Holloway in a blockbuster welterweight showdown. But the main event is far from the only intriguing matchup on the card.
From a high-stakes lightweight clash between Paddy Pimblett and Benoît Saint Denis to a pivotal bantamweight rematch featuring Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista, UFC 329 is loaded with fights that could reshape multiple divisions.
Add in flyweight contender Brandon Royval defending his place in the rankings against the surging Lone’er Kavanagh and an expected firefight between King Green and Terrance McKinney, and fans have plenty to look forward to.
We break down the biggest matchups of the night:
Welterweight Bout
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway (4-LW)
Lee: Conor McGregor’s power and striking will be tested by Max Holloway’s pace, volume, and cardio. While the matchup favors Conor stylistically without a heavy wrestling threat, the longer the fight goes, the more it benefits Holloway.
With McGregor not looking like his vintage self in years and Holloway remaining one of the sport’s most consistent fighters… I’m leaning toward the younger, more active Holloway in this striking battle.
Official Prediction: Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision
Evan: Conor McGregor’s return to the sport is undoubtedly a big deal. But personally, I’m not all that excited to see him back. In his five year absence, the Irishman just has become a bit of an enigmatic madman.
Between being found liable in November 2024 by a civil jury of raping Nikita Hand, self admitting to using cocaine, and dealing with several other legal issues, McGregor has been embroiled in non stop controversy. Not to mention, he’s coming off a catastrophic broken leg in his last octagon appearance against Dustin Poirier in July 2021.
To the fight itself though, I feel the only things making it remotely intriguing are it taking place at 170 pounds and the ultimate X factor that is Conor’s power. Outside of that, if he doesn’t finish or significantly hurt Max within the first two rounds, I believe he’s in massive trouble here.
I’m predicting Holloway to drown McGregor with his pace, combinations, and doggedness, pummeling him over time. This fight eventually will turn into a flat out beat down.
Taking half a decade off and assuming you can just jump back in against a fighter of Max’s caliber, seems dangerously foolish. The longer this goes, the worse it’s going to be for Conor.
Official Prediction: Max Holloway via 3rd or 4th-Round KO/TKO
Lightweight Bout
Paddy Pimblett (6) vs. Benoît Saint Denis (5)
Lee: In what could be the best fight on the card, Paddy Pimblett faces Benoît Saint Denis in a pivotal lightweight matchup.
Pimblett is coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje, while BSD enters on a four-fight finishing streak. Both are dangerous grapplers, but I expect Saint Denis to fight behind his jab and mix in takedowns.
Pimblett’s key will be controlling the pace and winning the striking exchanges. With both men skilled on the ground, the stand-up battle may decide this one.
Official Prediction: Benoît Saint Denis via 2nd-Round Submission
Evan: So I differ from Lee in that I don’t really think this is the best fight on the card or that we’re going to see a particularly measured approach from both of these guys. Pimblett is coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje where from my perspective, his limitations got fully audited.
We could see a repeat of as he faces an offensive berserker in BSD. This is truly a sink or swim moment for the Liverpool product.
On paper, Saint Denis should seemingly have an advantage in nearly every facet skill wise and is the more potent finisher of the two. Him steamrolling and outclassing Pimblett wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest.
But, I think a lot of fans and pundits alike, overlook how solid of a fighter Paddy actually is. He’s tough as a two-dollar steak; physical for the weight class, has underrated power, and a dangerous back taker grappling wise.
The recklessness Saint Denis fights with and openings he consistently leaves, are mistakes Paddy can easily capitalize on. I’m still going to pick BSD as well. However, I believe Pimblett will put up much more resistance than expected and is a very live dog in this scrap.
Official Prediction: Benoît Saint Denis via Unanimous Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Cory Sandhagen (4) vs. Mario Bautista (7)
Lee: Mario Bautista looks to settle the score against Cory Sandhagen, who handed him an early career setback.
With the bantamweight title picture shifting, a statement win could put either man closer to a championship opportunity. Sandhagen will rely on his switch-stance striking, elite footwork, and creative combinations. Bautista will look to counter with pressure, grappling, and his own versatile striking.
Bautista holds the edge in accuracy (48% to 45%) and takedowns (1.91 to 1.15 per 15 minutes). The winner will be the fighter who executes their game plan first.
Official Prediction: Cory Sandhagen via Split Decision
Evan: Nobody is going to complain about this matchup. It’s an extremely high quality fight in the bantamweight division. However, I think this legitimately might be one of the laziest displays of matchmaking from the UFC in recent memory.
Cory Sandhagen should’ve fought Sean O’Malley at the White House event. That seemed like a no brainer and is one of the better bookings you could make in MMA currently.
I also don’t think a win here does a ton for either guy in terms of putting them closer to a title shot. With the rumored trilogy between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili still yet to be scheduled, plus them both seemingly being behind O’Malley and Umar Nurmagomdeov in the contender rankings, a victory keeps them in a stagnant position at 135 pounds.
Breaking down this matchup though, I truly believe Bautista has improved dramatically since his first loss to Sandhagen back in 2019. If he’s able to do what Lee is somewhat alluding to in turning this into a predominantly grimy, grappling, clinch heavy affair, he definitely can pull off the upset.
But I just think Cory is a technically superior and smarter fighter in virtually every aspect of the game. So I expect him to get by and edge out Mario once again by having the more versatile skill set.
Official Prediction: Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Royval (4) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (6)
Lee: Southpaw Brandon Royval brings his elite submission game and experience against unbeaten rising star Lone’er Kavanagh.
Kavanagh earned a Performance of the Night bonus in his last fight against former champion Brandon Moreno and looks to prove that win was no fluke with his striking and wrestling. Royval aims to protect his top-10 ranking and stay in title contention.
With both fighters always willing to engage, this matchup has the makings of a barn burner.
Official Prediction: Lone’er Kavanaugh via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This is the fight on the card I’m probably most looking forward to. Mainly because I think the top of flyweight is one of the best of any division at the moment.
It also feels like a bit of a last stand potentially for Brandon Royval in remaining a constant title contender at 125. After losing to several former champions and coming off a first-round KO loss to Manel Kape last December, the 33-year old is seemingly at a crossroads of his career.
The amount of dog fights he’s been in and damage he’s taken, I think might be starting to add up where the rent has come due so to say. If he can force Kavanagh into a boxing, slugfest type of brawl within the pocket, while also mixing in grappling scrambles, he could pull out a much needed victory.
But I feel Lone’er’s speed, precision, angles, and defensive wrestling are going to pose difficulty for Brandon’s game. How hittable he is and his lack of defensive striking, should get exposed fully.
Official Prediction: Lone’er Kavanagh via Unanimous Decision
Lightweight Bout
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
Lee: Veteran King Green makes his third appearance of the year against knockout artist Terrance McKinney. The matchup is surprising since the two have trained together. But, both fighters are known for bringing action.
At 39, Green is enjoying one of the best runs of his career. As for McKinney, he owns a 100% finish rate and has never gone to the judges’ scorecards. Green’s wrestling could be key to slowing McKinney’s pressure.
Expect fireworks in this one.
Official Prediction: Terrance McKinney via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: As Lee pointed out, this fight is going to be guaranteed violence.
McKinney’s style can be defined simply as all gas, no breaks. The dude has a kill or be killed style, predicated on relentless and mostly reckless offense. 11 out of Terrance’s 13 octagon appearances have failed to make it past the first round. He flat out lives or dies by the sword and is one of the best action fighters in the sport today.
Green meanwhile has had a resurgence as of late in the twilight of his career. He’s riding a three-fight winning streak. He’s undoubtedly the slicker striker of the two, but I do worry at 39 years old how his durability holds up against McKinney’s offensive onslaught. Plus, King has been finished in the first round in four of his last five losses.
Either way, someone is definitely more than likely getting put to sleep early here. I’ll take a flier on the savvy veteran in Green to survive McKinney’s initial outburst and take advantage of his overzealousness to force a highlight reel finish.
Official Prediction: King Green via 1st or 2nd-Round KO/TKO
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