UFC on ESPN Predictions: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
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UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez will take place on Sunday, February 17 at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.
This will be the first time the main card will be on ESPN. The card features a main event where Cain Velasquez makes his long-awaited return to the octagon after battling through injuries and being inactive since July 2016. Velasquez is a former heavyweight champion and will look to take out the ever dangerous, Francis Ngannou.
Another match to be excited for is James Vick vs Paul Felder and Kron Gracie makes his UFC debut. The early prelims start at 3:30pm MT on ESPN+ and the prelims will be on ESPN starting at 5:00pm MT. The main card is also on ESPN and starts at 7:00pm MT.
Check out our staff predictions for UFC Phoenix below:
Andre Fili vs Miles Jury (Featherweight)
Hiram: This is such a great fight- two young, but veteran fighters. Both men are looking to put a show and prove they are the elite of the 145-pound division. Andre Fili just lost a close decision to Michael Johnson in a scrap people thought he should have won. Jury is looking to bounce back from his TKO loss to Chad Mendes. This is actually my fight to watch tonight.
Andre Fili def. Miles Jury via unanimous decision.
Connor: Both Fili and Jury are coming off a loss in their last fight and will look to bounce back. Both fighters will be going for a chance to enter into the top-15 and a win here would go a long way to move up in a talent-packed featherweight division. I believe the difference is that Jury is a finisher.
Miles Jury def. Andre Fili via TKO in round 2.
Dreux: This will likely be a razor thin fight and will be closely contested until the final horn. Fili isn’t the overall threat that Jury is but Jury won’t knock your socks with anything in particular. He is very defensive and more technically sound than Fili. Fili is wild and very exciting but I don’t think Jury will be coerced into brawling, in fact, Jury has the potential to finish this fight on the mat but that is still difficult for me to lock in as a sure fire prediction. I’ll guess I’ll pick Jury but damn this fight will be close.
Miles Jury def. Andre Fili via unanimous decision.
Vicente Luque vs Bryan Barberena (Welterweight)
Hiram: This fight for me is a no-brainer. Bryan is a great fighter and super tough, however I believe Vicente is on another level at this point in their careers.
Vicente Luque def. Bryan Barberena via TKO in round 2.
Connor: Both of these fighters have their last loss come at the hands of Leon Edwards, Luque from back in March 2017 and Barberena in September 2017. This fight could be a good one with both fighters having KO ability, but Luque has a more advanced submission game. Barberena has faced a higher quality of opponents. This fight is hard to pick, but that should make for an amazing fight.
Brian Barberena def. Vicente Luque via unanimous decision.
Dreux: If you said “hey go charge that moving 4×4,” Vicente Luque would likely oblige. The dude is aggressive and vicious. Barbarena isn’t much of a dynamic striker but has sick jiu jitsu, however, I don’t think it’s enough to stop the surging Luque. This will be a fun fight though and it could end quickly. I think Barbarena can hang in there for a decision loss.
Vicente Luque def. Bryan Barberena via unanimous decision.
Alex Caceres vs Kron Gracie (Featherweight)
Hiram: With the much anticipated debut of Kron Gracie, this is a huge fight for both men. Kron wants to prove he belongs in the UFC and he has more than just jiu-jitsu. As for Caceres, he wants to prove that he is not a gate keeper, he still is a legit contender.
Alex Caceres def. Kron Gracie via unanimous decision.
Connor: This marks the UFC debut of Kron Gracie. While Caceres is a veteran in the UFC, he has had some up and down performances. He has the ability to put a fighter on a KO of the year type of highlight with wild spinning kicks, but we are talking about Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, in the Gracie family. I have to believe Caceres will try with all his might to keep this fight standing, but I do not think he will be able to keep that up the whole fight.
Kron Gracie def. Alex Caceres via submission in round 1.
Dreux: This is perhaps my favorite fight on the card outside of the main event. If you know anything about MMA then you should know that Gracie = Jiu Jitsu and Kron Gracie is no exception to that rule. He will arguably be the best jiu jitsu artist in the UFC and he has a set of hands on him as well. Caceres is no joke and definitely a tough matchup for your first UFC bout as he is more than formidable everywhere. However, when the fight hits the mat, Caceres is not even on the same planet as Gracie in jiu jitsu. I see the Gracie family notching its first UFC win since Uncle Royce in 1995.
Kron Gracie def. Alex Caceres via submission in round 1.
Courtney Casey (#11) vs Cynthia Calvillo (#12) (Strawweight)
Hiram: This is true strawweight battle, a big fight for both these women. Cynthia is here to show she can hang and compete with the elite and as for Casey, she is 2-3 in her last five fights and would like to turn that record around, keeping that number next to her name and not drop in the rankings.
Cynthia Calvillo def. Courtney Casey via unanimous decision.
Connor: This fight has the potential to shape the strawweight division. Calvillo has only one professional loss, while Casey has had some up and down performances. This could be a good fight, but I think Calvillo is better on the ground and has strong submission game that will make the difference. Casey has fought some top talent in the likes of Jessica Aguilar, Claudia Gadelha, Michelle Waterson, and JoJo Calderwood. The problem is that she was only victorious against Aguilar.
Cynthia Calvillo def. Courtney Casey via submission in round 1.
Dreux: Cynthia Calvillo is a dark horse in the strawweight division and is absolutely nasty on the ground, but does have tendency to be coerced into a brawl on the feet. However, as athletic as Casey is in this, I don’t think she’ll be able to stop Calvillo from taking this to the mat or having the Fight IQ to bait her into a dog fight.
Cynthia Calvillo def. Courtney Casey via submission in round 1.
James Vick (#10) vs Paul Felder (#14) (Lightweight)
Hiram: This is such an amazing fight. James Vick is looking to bounce back from his TKO loss to Gathje and Felder is looking to get in the win column after his decision loss to Mike Perry. Both men need this win.
James Vick def. Paul Felder via TKO in round 2.
Connor: This could be a great fight between two fighters looking to prove they are worthy of a title shot. Vick dropped his last fight against Justin Gaethje and Felder lost to Mike Perry in his last bout. This could be a great stand up battle as Felder has 10 KO’s on his resume, and Vick looks to take advantage of his ridiculous height and reach for the lightweight division. Neither fighter has shown a strong desire to go to the ground in fights.
James Vick def. Paul Felder via TKO in round 3.
Dreux: This fight will end very similar to how Vick/Gaethje ended. Vick doesn’t exactly move his head the best and Felder is a sniper of a striker. I see Felder picking off Vick after throwing bruising kicks to the legs to soften up the Texecutioner.
Paul Felder def. James Vick via TKO in round 2.
Francis Ngannou (#3) vs Cain Velasquez (Heavyweight)
Hiram: This is a fight for the fans- a true heavyweight battle, a true battle of big men. When I look at both of these men, I see elite talent, but then I look at them and I don’t look for power or heavy hands, or crazy strikes, I look for the fighter who is more well-rounded. In this case, it’s Cain Velasquez. Cain is a superior wrestler with high-level kick-boxing, I feel that we will see him do the same thing Stipe did but worst and put more punishment on Ngannou. Remember what Cain did to Brock Lesnar who was this big, he out-worked him, took him down, beat him up, and the got the TKO win. and i see the same happening.
Cain Velasquez def. Francis Ngannou via TKO in round 4.
Connor: Will we see Cain Velasquez return to his former championship-level of fighting after a long injury layoff. Francis Ngannou seems to be back on track after Curtis Blaydes found out that is does not take very long for Ngannou to end fights because he hits really… really hard. Vintage Velasquez would use his relentless pressure and insane cardio to wear out Ngannou and not allow him the chance to use that power he is so well known for. The longer this fight goes, the more it benefits Velasquez, but Ngannou is always a danger. If Velasquez were to win this fight, it would immediately put him back into discussion for title contention, just in time for him to resume his reign over the division as his teammate Daniel Cormier aims to retire in March, if that still is his plan.
Cain Velasquez def. Francis Ngannou via TKO in round 3.
Dreux: Cain Velasquez will be returning to action for the first time in two years after several injuries that halted his rise. He will meet perhaps the scariest human on the planet in Francis Ngannou, a 6’5 260-pound assassin who moves like a middleweight. After seeing what Stipe Miocic did to Francis, the common folk would side with Cain seeing as Cain is an even better wrestler than Stipe and it is once again a five round bout. I’m not common, though. Cain does get hit when the fight is standing, if you get hit by Francis the chances of you staying conscious are very slim and Stipe took a lot of shots before finally getting Francis down. I just can’t resist the urge. Francis will have the size, reach, power, and maybe even speed advantage in this and he will be the more active man in this.
I could be totally wrong on this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if Cain wrestles Francis into oblivion before smashing him with strikes for a TKO. However, I have a feeling Francis is better prepared for this one and will land something extremely hard and fast in the opening rounds, making the Cain Velasquez the poster boy for early KO’s on big broadcasting platforms.
Francis Ngannou def. Cain Velasquez via KO in round 1.
Kylie: It is hard to say whether or not the two year lay-off will have any affect on the outcome of this fight. Cain is known for his smothering pressure, something he will need if he wants to avoid the power punches of the always dangerous Ngannou. I expect Cain to employ a similar strategy to that of former champion, Stipe Miocic in this fight- take him down, land punches from the top and drain the gas tank to make those punches mean less. The former college wrestler and AKA trained fighter will absolutely have the wrestling and grappling advantage and if history serves correct, more than enough cardio to last. That isn’t to say that a win in this fight isn’t attainable for Ngannou.
Francis is always dangerous with his hands and we have seen Cain get reckless in striking exchanges. However, we haven’t really seen anything outside of looking to land a power punch and turn the lights off. If he can avoid the clinch and the takedown and find an opening for the power punch, Ngannou might have a shot. In the end, I think the pressure, cardio and wrestling will be too much for the heavyweight contender.
Cain Velasquez def. Francis Ngannou via TKO in round 3.
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